Estimating the Value of Chaos Legion Pack Vouchers

Hello Splinterfans! Pogier here with my second article! Our focus today is the Chaos Legion Pack Vouchers!

While waiting for the presale to arrive (Oct 18-Nov 24), a lot of people have been wondering how much chaos legion pack vouchers would cost.

If you listened to the last AMA, Aggroed repeatedly mentioned how the team wants the vouchers to be considered a scarce resource, and for everyone to really go out there and fight for it (by staking as much SPS as possible). This eventually leads to a battle where whales, mega whales, and krakkens try to take as much vouchers as they can, while the smaller fish are left to hope their staked SPS is enough or they'd have to buy the vouchers from those who have staked a lot.

In order to approximate the fair value of the vouchers, I will be making a few assumptions.

1. Based on the Untamed Airdrops, the Diamond Dragon and Chain Golem were the first to be released. On splintercards.com the earliest value I can see is of 3 months ago. The Diamond Dragon costs around 8 USD while the chain golem costs 34.5 USD. Therefore, the value of one guaranteed limited promo card and the first airdropped card should be around 42.5 USD. (probably an overestimation of the value of the presale's guaranteed promo card because Untamed was released way back in 2019, but hey let's be bullish)
   
2. The succeeding releases will have packs that will not require vouchers. My assumption here is in each release they're will be 1M cards, half of which is available for purchase with voucher while the other half without voucher. (50:50 split)
3. The demand for the chaos legion vouchers increases the value of the vouchers despite the lower collection power of the Chaos Legion reward cards.

We must take note of this line from the presale info:

There will be a total of 13 airdrop cards released as part of the Chaos Legion set as well as one special limited-edition promo card that will be airdropped at the end of the presale (more details on that below). A new card will be released and airdropped to all previous pack purchasers after the next batch of 1M Chaos Legion packs have been sold.

The voucher on my estimated fair value should be around 42.5 USD for 50 vouchers, given that the difference of the presale and the regular sale is the benefit of receiving the limited edition promo card and the very first promo card.

Now, seeing as the law of supply and demand is applicable in all markets, with such a scarce supply of only 1M packs, this means that there will only be a guaranteed 20,000 limited edition promo cards (1,000 gold foil version) (additional cards depend on the 2% probability chance per pack, and a 0.04% chance for a gold foil (2% of 2%))

So based on these numbers, the estimated fair value for the vouchers should be around as low as 1 USD (well, 0.85 USD [42.5 USD/50 vouchers]) per voucher to as high as 5 USD per voucher (Original price of pack + 1 USD (minimum expected cost)).

Despite my computations, I have a feeling it will be even more expensive but I do hope that more people in the community will be able to join the presale.

Do note that for those who intend to buy vouchers, based on the law of supply and demand, the initial value of vouchers should start low then go high then start to taper down towards the middle of the voucher season as more vouchers enter the market.

If you have thoughts regarding my assumptions and computations, feel free to comment below! I'll be happy to edit this! In any case, let's discuss it here, while we hype ourselves up for the coming of the Chaos Legion!
Sources:
https://www.splintertalk.io/@splinterlands/chaos-legion-set-and-presale-info
https://www.splintercards.com/untamed-chain-golem
https://www.splintercards.com/untamed-diamond-dragon