GL Goals - Evaluate and price the NFT cards for trading

Seeing the wild range of the cards on the newly opened marketplace made me wonder about the prices in the near and not so near future. So tried to create some range for given cards estimated value based on other NFT games and the circulating number of cards.

First better to start with the GL Goals facts. The number of card types, players, drop rate.

Well, this is just not true. I already have 21 different coaches, and no, I didn't mix non-foil and gold foil ones. 21 not 20. If someone knows which one is the Jolly Joker, let me know, please!

The drop rates based on Discord source:

Coach        5.0%
Goalkeeper   7.5%
Forward     21.0%
Midfield    27.0%
Defense     39.0%

If you add it, it is 99,5%, but that's the best I could find, and based on 100+ packs opening, more or less, it looks accurate.

There is another factor: the Scout Pass and the ongoing extra 1-5% of Gold foil cards drop rate. For the more simple math, I just count with 10%.

The Genesis League Goals site shows:

Their whitepaper details the pack sales:

I assume the Pre-Sale 1 was a sold out, however I didn't find anything about that, but in the pack staking, I've found this:

Yesterday the GLG site was very slow for me, and it showed the total GLX rewards/day for the packs... :) :)

1 staked pack has 0.701 GLX / day reward. So it means approx. 276,100 packs are still staked.

If we assume the pre-sale 1 was a sold out - I do -, then altogether 565,658 packs were sold to date. (Just interesting to know, half of these are still staked.)

As the unsold packs will be burned on 31st Dec, I made an estimate, regarding the total numbers of sold packs by end of the year. Based on what I've seen, I suppose another 1 million sold packs is optimistic, for the easier math, I count with 1,5 million total sold packs in this season. (I also assume, that all packs will be opened by the end of year, what anyway won't happen.)

The next one is counting the total circulating number of given cards. First by types. (Based on the packs numbers, there are approx. 2,825,000 cards were sold in the packs. Later on I check how many can circulate at the moment.)

I made some estimation about circulating cards at the moment.
I picked 4-8 golden foil cards, approx. average: 100 circulating cards/players.

Total sold packs (565,000) case should be 706 cards/players, so 100/706= 0,1416 , so approx. 14,16% of the total sold packs are already opened. (approx. 80,000 packs). (Update: it is even less, because I forgot the extra % for getting gold foil cards in these weeks...)

We all know the packs cost $4-5 for most of the players, some perhaps got them cheaper on Hive-engine. With the Scout Passes, and, again for easier math, lets go with $5/pack, that means $1/card. Actually, there is nothing much to do with this part.

We already know the team need 1 Coach, 1 Goalkeeper, 2-2-2 Def, Mid, Fw players. Basically, this is the reason why I assume Coaches and Goalkeepers will be the most expensive cards. Of course, the gameplay will be a significant factor, however hard to imagine, they can turn it around.

The cheapest cards are already 'priced in'. There are so many very bad stat Defensive and Midfielder players (even some attackers) whose price will always be around the min. listing price, $0.25, but at least, always will be the cheapest.

Personally, I don't sell most of these, or try to sell few, the ones I have only 1 card, and try to collect, buy more from a given player. Maybe by upgrading, combining, they can earn some reward in the game.

Another question, how to compare the GL Goals NFTs to other games, as here, there are no categories like common, rare, epic, legendary and the future price won't be the same for the same players, as they can level up by playing and staking, too. And combining will have different advantages.

https://whitepaper-goals.genesisleaguesports.com/cards/upgrading-player-cards

That part depends on how will be the gameplay, again. But at least, some approx. estimation is possible.

If we assume the average value of categories will go up in the defender - midfielder - forwarder - goalkeeper - coach order, then possible to make some raw comparsion to other games.

As the game developed by Splinterlands guys, obviously I looked around there and dCrops, as that's the only other game I am involved on the Hive.

For example, the epic, non-foil, level 1 monster cards (lowest selling) are in the $0.17 - $25.00 range. An average card, around 6K in circulation is in the $2.50 - $3.00

In the dCrops, these cards move from $1.60 to $15.00 with few exception to the upside. However, worth to mention, there is no non-foil - gold-foil versions there.

I suppose GL Goals will be a game between these 2, regarding traffic, value. So I keep in mind and count on that, too.

Let's look at a gold-foil version. The goalkeepers. If we assume they are the legendary cards, in Splinterlands, the ones with 1-2k in circulation (level 2, monster cards) cost between $60.00 - $80.00, in dCrops, they cost $4.00 - $25.00.

Based on the above and few other factors including my assumptions about gameplay, I setup the following prices, as the average value of a card type. (As I see significant extra value to trade NFTs before game start, based on the last 2 days. I even counted further by players' stats, but I won't share that, you can do a bit math, too. :) )

Probably, like everybody else, I have no idea about the Coach cards. There is zero information about them, not even any stat. I still assume, they will be very important.

I know it is a bit out of reality sometimes, for example non-foil goalkeepers and coaches I suppose, will represent higher value and half of the defenders, midfielders will end in the $0.25 - $0.30 range, but still okay as a basic. Also the attackers is a good question, but so many of them have, so bad basic stats... Before the game start, and seeing the exact gameplay, I don't think people's assumptions, intuitions will be different about them.

Of course, it stands like this only in the next 1 month for me (the further price breakdown not) until the game starts. Probably I don't take big risk by saying: the leveling up by playing the game, will change the prices very fast, and I suppose, some non-foil midfilders, defenders will be more expensive than a gold foil coach or goalkeeper very soon. (Don't mention the coming years, when this season cards can result higher rewards compared to new seasons' cards.)

So, I buy and sell, whenever I see some extra value, based on the type and basic statistics breakdown, what I made.

2 of my best purchases in gold foil version, were these 2 guys, both stats are above average, way over above average, and cost much less than the average price, I've counted:

From the selling side, I can't show, as there is no option to check your trading history. However, I did not make big sells, some of them were cheap, but most of them in the range, I setup, and mainly trading them for team setup purposes.

Thank you, if you are still reading it, and reached the end. Perhaps worth to mention, what I've just found out. (I am not a big football, soccer fan.) The MLS has 28 teams, that means at least 560 players. (I suppose all teams have at least 20-25 players) I just checked few teams, very good players are missing from the GL Goals, like Uhre or Higuain, so I also suppose, there will be some extra, specific or reward kinda further player cards, coming in this year, after game launch.

How is your experience about GLG market? How do you select the cards you wish to trade and based on what you setup the price?

Have a nice day!

Images are owned by Genesis League Goals