Analysing Card Rarity Probabilities In Chest Rewards With 300 Cards

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How often have you read posts about people sharing how lucky or unlucky they have been when it comes to chest rewards?

For me, I like to analyse stuff objectively using data, so I actually kept track of the cards that I have received from chest rewards to check if I am more lucky or unlucky compared to the official data.

Previously, I reported the statistics for my first 100 and 200 cards. In this post, I will be sharing the statistics after 300 cards. Let's see if the deviations are reduced with a bigger sample size.

Before we jump into that, in case you didn't know, these are the official card probabilities:

Rarity: Common: 75.2% | Rare: 20% | Epic: 4% | Legendary: 0.8%
Foil: Regular: 98% | Gold: 2%

This means if you have gotten 100 cards, on average, you will likely have about 75 Common cards, 20 Rare cards, 4 Epic cards, and maybe 1 Legendary card. 2 of them on average will be Gold Foil, while the rest are likely not.


So here's what I have gotten:

RarityActual CardsActual %Expected %Deviation
Common22173.7%75.2%-1.5%
Rare6923%20%+3.0%
Epic82.7%4%-1.3%
Legendary20.7%0.8%-0.1%
Total300100%100%-
FoilActual CardsActual %Expected %Deviation
Regular29498%98%-
Gold62%2%-
Total300100%100%-

Some observations after 300 cards:

  • This was my best batch of 100 cards, with 1 Legendary and 3 Epic cards.
  • However, the deviations are still comparable to 200 cards as I am still getting more Rare cards than expected (while lesser Epic and Common cards)
  • Nothing much to comment on Goil Foil again as it was right on point with the official expectations

Some final notes/remarks:

  • These cards were solely obtained from chest rewards, i.e. I did not include cards from Chaos Legion packs for this analysis because the use of potions and the guaranteed rare card would skew the %.
  • Also, given that the chance of getting a card from chests varies from league to league (e.g. 50% chance for Silver and above), I have excluded that for this analysis because I wanted to focus on the distribution between the rarity tiers and foils. This means you probably need to open at least 200 chests in order to get 100 cards.

Overall, I would rate my luck for card rewards so far as close to average even though I would like to have a Djinn Oshannus because that's my favourite card so far. At least I broke the 4 month drought of no Legendary cards by getting a 2nd one. Let's see what happens after 400 cards!

If you like reading this post, do appreciate an upvote to support my work too! As always, thanks for reading and have a pleasant day ahead!


If you are interested to sign up to play Splinterlands, my referral link is here.



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16 comments
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Great post!I got my 3rd legendary recently after more than 400 drops

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Nice! All the best for your end of season rewards!
Am thankful that my gold foils are dropping steadily within expectations. :)

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I managed to get a Gold foil today after ages lol.Problem is all the bots that mess up the rewrds pool,otherwise we regular players will get much better rewards

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Yeah that's true sometimes!

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Best of luck to you,Hopefully a GF legendary to end your EOS

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Great Post. I remember I counted 650 Chests since the new rewards before I got my first Legendary! So I am way down on the averages but keep in mind after pots and dec drops, more like 300.

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Ah I see, hope you have better luck in the coming weeks!

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Congratulations @relf87! You have completed the following achievement on the Hive blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s):

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To support your work, I also upvoted your post!

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Thanks for sharing! - @ashikstd

How often have you read posts about people sharing how lucky or unlucky they have been when it comes to chest rewards?

Not much.

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