Let's Talk About SPS - Why I Am Still Bullish

I wrote a post one month ago that I bought 30,000 SPS! You can read about it here.

One month has passed, so I thought I should do a little update.

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My Trades

Surprise! I actually took profit 4 days later. Purely based on the spot price, it was a 30% gain. But users of Crypto.com will realise SPS trades at a HUGE spread on their App, and one cycle of buying and selling incurs, depending on your amount, around 17% spread. Hence, my net gain was reduced to 13%.

I mean, while a 13% gain over a span of 4 days is considered very decent, I realise this method wasn't that sustainable, especially if I were to trade frequently given that things change very fast in the crypto space.

Hence I realised I needed a better solution, and of course, the best liquidity for trading SPS would be on Hive. I didn't have a lot of liquid Hive because most of it is staked as Hive Power, so the logical method would be to withdraw my HBD from Savings, which required just 3 days of waiting time!

So on 14 Dec, I was back into SPS once again! Using 600 HBD, I had to deposit into the Exchange as SWAP.HBD (this incurs a small fee), sell SWAP.HBD into SWAP.HIVE (this incur a spread cost), before using SWAP.HIVE to buy SPS. One can compare either the prices on the Exchange as well as the Diesel Pools to see which option gives you a better deal.

At time of writing, it has dipped slightly to around 590 USD.

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My Views

In my previous post, I mentioned 5 reasons why I think the price of SPS will do well in the coming weeks so let's revisit them again.

• Change in leadership

I always feel that leadership is one of the most important aspects for a company or a project because the captain of the ship will be the one steering through troubled waters when times get tough and you want a steady hand. I am not sure if you agree with me, but the recent change/reorganisation seemed to work and things have been improving since.

There is no change for this, as there are no significant developments that has led me to change my perception of the leadership of Splinterlands.

• Success launch of LAND

Even though I don't own any LAND and often find the information too overloaded, it's always a good thing reading posts on players expressing excitement about finding Totems or putting cards to work in their LAND. From an outsider's view, the LAND does add a new dimension and depth to Splinterlands and I think it looks very promising currently.

This has been completed, at least for the current phase, and definitely, the hype has been reduced significantly. Not many people talk about it or tweet about their LAND these days, although for sure, many players are still diligently looking after them. But it just feels less of a hype compared to a month ago.

• SPS and DEC flywheel in play

Splinterlands players would know that you can burn SPS to convert into DEC and this meant that if DEC were to stay close to the peg, this makes SPS bullish. I always get excited when I see DEC fluctuate at the peg, but it was also due to one-off events like pack sales and DEC would always drop back after that. However, DEC has stayed close to the peg for a very sustained period now and I believe that is also why SPS has climbed steadily over the past weeks! As long as DEC continues to keep at the peg, I believe SPS will continue a steady climb in price.

Ouch, the flywheel has gone into somewhat of a trouble recently. DEC was at its soft peg for the longest time, before slipping off in the recent days, and it hasn't been able to restore back to parity yet. That's a negative sign for the price of SPS, because this means players will buy DEC instead of burning SPS to obtain their required DEC. Of course, things are fluid in this space so I am monitoring the statistics closely daily.

• Rebellion!

And if the above 3 points aren't enough to believe in the potential of the price of SPS, there's also the Rebellion general sale coming up! The pre-sale has ended, and to be honest, I was surprised that it was very well-received! The sales choked up halfway but it finished strongly at the end!

This was also done and dusted! And this was also one of the reasons I took some profits off the table.

• Bitcoin

Like it or not, the rise and fall of most cryptos are fortunately (or unfortunately) tied the fate and price of Bitcoin. Bitcoin has showing signs of bullish-ness, which can be attributed to many factors. There's the speculation of the Bitcoin ETF approval, there's also the upcoming halving event next year, and they all seem to coincide with the peaks and troughs of the "4 year cycle" of Bitcoin. With potentially greater adoption and greater awareness of the masses, it would do great for play-to-earn games such as Splinterlands as more people would discover this game and a larger pool of players and a bigger community would be beneficial for the game, and likely, for the price of SPS.

This would be the strongest point for my bullishness of SPS now. As most of you would know, the Bitcoin ETFs have been approved and cryptos are all green tonight. While attention has switched to Ethereum, I believe there's still a long way to go for Bitcoin. The halving event is coming up really soon so there's room for optimism for the price.

The more significant aspect of this approval, I feel, is that it gives cryptos a little bit of legitimacy and more awareness. Hopefully, many crypto projects will be recognised, including Splinterlands.

So in summary:

No	Reasons	What Has Changed
1	Change in leadership	No change
2	Success launch of LAND	Completed (not a catalyst anymore)
3	SPS and DEC flywheel in play	Less bullish
4	Rebellion!	Completed (not a catalyst anymore)
5	Bitcoin	More bullish

With that, I maintain my current holdings of about 19k SPS, and let's look back one day to see how things have developed!

Before I end, of course, I should always reiterate that this is not financial advice. This is just my personal viewpoint and one should ALWAYS do your own due diligence for anything you want to put your money in.

So what do you think? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Feel free to agree or disagree with my reasons too!

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