I'm sure staking more SPS is a bad idea....
OK Firstly this is easy for me to say as I've already got nearly 50K SPS staked for Chaos Legion packs which covers me for a basic in of around 400 packs, but I've also got 10 000 liquid SPS and I'm damed if I'm staking that....
IF I can sell at around $1.00 (that is an IF) and then buy back at $0.50, I'm sure the price is going to crash HARD after Chaos, then I net myself an additional 10 000 SPS.
IF I were to stake that 10 000 SPS, I'd be making around 570 a month at 70% APY, so if takes one month for the price to crash back down, then I'd make an additional 9430 SPS from selling at my hypothetical top and buying back at my hypothetical bottom.
If the price drop takes longer or isn't as drastic, then I'd make relatively less.
The chart below shows the extra SPS I'd earn if I sold 10K SPS at a dollar and then bought back at three different prices - 0.80/ 0.60 and 0.40 - the longer I leave it the greater the opportunity cost of lost SPS through NOT having it staked.
(NB typo bottom left, should be $0.50)
If I could sell at $1 and the price took three months to drop to $0.80, a 20% reduction then I'd STILL MAKE an additional 773 SPS compared to staking.
At whatever price I sell, as long as there's a 15% price reduction within 3 months I basically can't lose compared to staking.
NB what this doesn't factor in is the SPS airdrop points I'd get on holding packs or the ONE single card I'd be guaranteed to get which 10K SPS would guarantee me in vouchers. These pack-holding rewards are, I think, VERY minimal, certainly not significant enough for me to consider staking another 10k SPS, it's better liquid, and then ADD to that the fact that I can pool this SPS (I don't have enough Hive to cover the amount of DEC I've got) and there's ANOTHER argument for NOT staking!
Keep in mind that if I accumulate MORE SPS and then stake for the NEXT round of purchases, I could still buy ALL the packs I'd missed out on this first round.
Note to self, don't stake more SPS, don't FOMO - sell and then buy back later.
Of course all of this depends on there NOT being an announcement which MOONS SPS into the stratosphere, but I have a feeling with the roll-out delayed due to scaling we're going to drift back into a slow drip-selling of SPS for a month or two at least after the Chaos Legion presale.
There's also the fact that I bought that 10K SPS at $0.30 so whatever way I look at it, I'm looking at a profit.
NB I'm not against staking, I will have 50K staked by the end of Chaos, probably more, but right NOW I think keeping liquid, selling and timing a buy-back in two or three months will be the optimal way of accumulating MORE SPS!
Of course something that might scupper my plans is that there are plenty of people with more than 100K SPS liquid who are PERFECTLY aware of the math I've just done above, so who knows, my plans might end up being sell at $0.80, buy back at $0.30?!?
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