My Splinterlands Land Purchase Update
I wrote a month ago about taking the plunge and buying my first @Splinterlands land plot on Hive-Engine. I paid 388 HIVE at the time and also picked up two additional plots shortly thereafter - one for 422 and the other for 385 HIVE.
But now, prices for plots have fallen to 300 HIVE. To add insult to injury, the price of HIVE has fallen considerably in the past month too, so the new 300 HIVE price per plot works out to under $400 each. A month or so ago, plots were trading for $600-700. Is this just part of an overall crypto selloff or something more focused on Splinterlands?
Overproduction of Chaos Legion Cards
Personally, I think the Splinterlands devs vastly overestimated the number of Chaos Legion packs that needed to be produced. I often hear them talk about how the game has grown 10x in the past year so they need to release 10x as many packs. Well, you only release 10x the number of packs if you want to send card prices back down to what they were a year ago... and I don't think most players want that.
The 60 million Chaos Legion cards being released in the next month or two is going to crush the card price market for a while. We already saw what happened when 1 million packs were opened, with card prices collapsing 50% or more. I recently posted my December HIVE income report and discussed getting burned on these price drops of Gold Foil Legendary cards that I had been renting out.
The upcoming price drop could prove a very good opportunity to pick up more Splinterlands assets cheaply. I'm not sure if the selloff in cards that will be caused by a massive supply increase will spread to players selling off their land holdings, although it is possible if they feel the need to raise funds.
Keep in mind though, this strategy only works if you expect the demand for Splinterlands to continue to explode over the next 12 months. Personally, I think the game will continue to grow and attract more players. For this reason, I am going to continue picking up more land plots as the price has fallen.
Land Owners Rule the World
In real life it's the land owners who always make the money. The price of renting land and the structures on the land is the foundation for every economic transaction in the economy and I expect that Splinterlands will be no different.
Land is finite and the Splinterlands land owners will control a key aspect of the income generating part of the game. For now, we just have to wait to hear from the devs about what the key details of land ownership will include.
In the meantime, I'm willing to take the risk on land and keep building up my empire. As prices continue to fall for land, I will keep scooping up new plots and hope to reach at least 10 plots before the official release of this new game feature.
To read more about the details of the Splinterlands land release you can check out this post from the devs: https://ecency.com/splinterlands/@splinterlands/splinterlands-land-expansion-details
I agree that land is where it's at in Splinterlands. They can keep printing new cards, but land should stay fixed. Thanks for the heads up on the lower PLOT prices!
I think they anticipated the number of users to continue to grow, but for sure there will be a sharp then probably steady decline in the Splinterlands asset prices in the coming months.
Be interesting to see what effect LAND has on the prices, you have to stake monsters to LAND don't forget, that could suck a few more cards off the market.
We'll just have to wait and see I guess.
Well I don't think that the effect of the monsters staked to land will be a big one. There are a lot more cards, than there is land - in every relation. Why would you think, that asset prices will still decline? I would say, that with General Sale there will be another (probably sharp) decline, in card prices, since there is going to be a huge amount of new supply, while the demand is probably not increasing a lot. Since 12 million packs (= 60 million new cards) are quite a lot, this will probably keep card prices down for quite some time. At least regarding CL cards. Also reward cards are probably not going to increase a lot in prices, since so many new will be released.
But I am not sure, if this also has a negative impact on land. At least in my opinion these are two different assets. But probably since money is limited, it will also keep land prices low.
Cheers,
@andy-plays
It depends on how many monsters/ CP can be staked to each plot I guess.
It could be hundreds per plot.
But certainly short term decline, and then just wait for the news about LAND!
Yes, I'm eagerly awaiting additional details on the monster staking and how it will work with land. If the devs also realize they overshot on the card supply, they could decide to allow A LOT of cards to be staked to a piece of land in order to increase card demand. I imagine something along the lines of allowing a massive amount of CP worth of cards to max plot production of whatever resource it produces. If each plot could have 100 common CL cards staked to it, that soaks up a chunk of that excess supply.
I believe total plots is 150,000 so if each plot could have up to 100 cards (CP equivalent) staked to it, that would be 15 million cards staked. So I think there is room for them to undo this overproduction of CL with the land release acting as a card sink.
!PIZZA
I'm sure the idea will be something along those lines.
100 cards sounds like a lot mind you!
Yeah, 100 really sound like a lot. But this is the determining factor. For a legendary land plot, I think this could definitely be the case. Probably even more. Land could really be a major DEC and card sink - and that could help the economy. Guilds are a major DEC sink. And to get maxed level cards requires a lot more than 100 cards, so I wouldn't be surprise if, especially the higher tier land plots, require a lot of cards to be taken care of.
They've already said that any DEC spent on LAND - upgrading buildings and so on will burn DEC, so that sounds promisting!
!PIZZA
Yes it really does! Hope for the best! If this works well, it could be really some long term value creation!
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I think that land is going to be big. The price really depends on the stage of the market - and how much money is left after Chaos Legion. But in the long term - as long as Splinterlands is #aliveandthriving - land will be one of the most valuable assets in the game.
Thanks for this great post and all the amazing information it contains! Keep up the great work!
Cheers,
@andy-plays
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Via Tenor
You're exactly right, have to keep Splinterlands alive and thriving and bringing in more players to ensure to continued growth and success of our in-game assets. It will be interesting to see how many packs sell on day one of Chaos Legion general sale and I think that will be a precursor to the game economy over the following few months.
!PIZZA
Do you own land already? I thought about buying.
No not yet. I was considering it as well, but so far lacking the money 😂
😂 Lack of money is a problem I know for sure. I invested in other projects too. You can't be involved in every crypto project or game. I'm already selling cards and land from another card game which I didn't play much and I had the feeling after a few months that nothing happen with the land in game which made it practically worthless.
Yeah, that sounds familiar!
No, at least normal people can't. There are way to many out there. And although some are pretty good, many are not making it to the profitable zone - or at least not staying there long.
Cheers,
@andy-plays
I thought of buying a land but had other projects in first place. I have to check the details and benefits again.
I agree that we will likely see another big dip in our cards USD value after general sale phase two starts. As for the dip in land price I think it has allot to do with many things (1) SPS price is down (2) SPS airdrop is 1/3rd finished (3) the devs are talking about adding more (less productive) land.
300 HIVE land is roughly $400 each and (imo) is a great way to park ones HIVE as I suspect that to will continue to drop in USD value as well. Its a gamble but I picked up a couple 305 HIVE plots yesterday. I'd sink the rest of my HIVE in plots as well but I'm thinking about using it for Chaos Legion packs.
I'm not a fan of the talk of additional land sales. Looking back at the initial release of the 150k plots, they pretty much said this would be the only land sold. Then they changed their language to say this is the only land in Praetoria. I guess we will just have to wait and see, but given the large runup in land prices since the public sale, they left a lot of money on the table so a secondary land offering of sorts seems like it'd be a profitable move for the devs.
I'm now on the fence with the Chaos Legion general sale. I'm just not sure how many I want to purchase and am wondering if I can pick them up cheaper on the secondary market after the fact. I suppose I need to see more info about the airdrops to make an informed decision.
!PIZZA
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