Price of Splinterlands VOUCHER Tokens & My Chaos Legion Strategy

One of the biggest challenges in crafting my own Chaos Legion strategy is not knowing how much VOUCHER tokens will sell for on the market. I am probably like most of you that I do not have enough SPS staked in order to produce all of the VOUCHERs that I need to make my desired Chaos Legion purchase. I wrote yesterday that there has been a surge in SPS staking, and the total liquid supply of the token has now fallen below 100,000,000.

For example, I want to purchase 1,000 pre-sale Chaos Legion packs in order to attain the Legionnaire title and receive a guaranteed Gold Foil Limited Edition Promo card. At the current number of staked SPS, I would need to have about 128,000 staked SPS to receive 1,000 VOUCHERs. Needless to say, I have FAR less than that.

This means that I will have to purchase those VOUCHERs on the open market in order to achieve my goal of Legionnaire status. How much will they sell for? That's the million dollar question! Let's take a look at the current Hive-Engine marketplace for VOUCHERs:

The top bid is about 20 Hive, but the offers are very small. Considering there will be 33,333 VOUCHER tokens airdropped each day, it won't take long for these thin offers at the top of the order book to disappear. What we need to know is how strong are the buy orders deeper in the order book. Right now there are only 57 buy orders showing up at 10 Hive or higher.

I think a lot of these offers are for show and the real demand for VOUCHERs will kick in around 1-2 Hive. However, if those receiving VOUCHER airdrops decide not to release their stash to the market right away, that could drive the price up too. It's just so hard to say what will happen with so many unknown variables at play.

My Strategy

I was hesitating to write about my own strategy due to potentially stoking competition, but I decided to go ahead and do it anyway. I already said I want to get 1,000 pre-sale packs, mostly for the Legionnaire title. When I ran the numbers on the benefit of that title, it became clear to me that this is the secret benefit of the pre-sale.

Legionnaire's will get an extra 100,000 SPS airdrop points immediately. What is that worth? Let's have a look:

100,000 SPS Airdrop points will generate about $11 per day in SPS drops. If SPS prices stay stable throughout the remainder of the 282 days of the airdrop, that's a benefit of $3,102. Now, I don't think SPS prices will stay this high after the pre-sale. In addition, over time the circulating airdrop points will increase, thereby decreasing the daily drop amount on those 100,000 points. To estimate these effects I reduced my estimated value by 60% and end up with $1,240.

If I can acquire enough VOUCHERs to get Legionnaire status for $1,240 or less, then the extra benefits of the pre-sale (like the limited edition card drop) is all profit and I've fully recouped my cost in the pre-sale. In order for this to happen, I would need VOUCHERs to be $1.24 each or less. Will it happen? I'm just not sure, but I will likely put in some large standing orders to pick up any VOUCHERs trading at around 1.5 Hive.

Cover image from Splinterlands.com, SPS calculator images from Splintercards.com.