Low price and Number of Common Lands

Low price and Number of Common Lands

Q: When should you get in to buy into a common land?
Q: Is $80 a good price? Or is $70 a good price?
Q: Can you tell when the floor is being formed? Or are you buying a falling knife?
Q: Do we need a Land TAX to move IDLE and unproductive land?

A falling stock price does not mean it is a good value in the stock market. We use the term catching a falling knife as never a good idea. Can this happen with COMMON Land in Splinterlands?

Land Whitepaper v1.5 was released several weeks ago and has already made a big impact. Here is the link Land v1.5 WP!!

The first step is to understand all the types of LAND available. Common Plot is 75% of all land. We need to consider the natural land as the others are special. The last step is to look at the current REGION (115). This tells us how many COMMON PLOTS are natural today. The answer is 73K plots.

The next step is to go into Peakmonster and look at the Supply for sale.
Currently, there are about:

• 488 common plot
• 164 Rare plot
• 47 Epic plot
• 11 Legendary plot

Keep an eye on the "supply" and if the number trend is growing or shrinking supply. If this number continues to grow, then pricing pressure will happen. A lot of common PLOT is available, and there might only be a few thousand active players. Remember that LAND only cares about ACTIVE UNIQUE users (not how many accounts a single person has). This is the same reason some cards were only selling for $.01, and there wasn't any demand for the asset.

Land Prices and the 73K common plot. Let's see if there is any "demand" for it. If not, prices will move down towards $30-$40. If there is demand, the price will hold at $80.

What value do I think it will be?

I believe it makes sense for TRACT owners and REGION owners to sell 10%-20% of their land. That would bring the COMMON plot around 55%-65% of their LAND PORTFOLIO. Because of my assumption, I do think it will move toward the $50 mark and then go under that price.

Land Tax is a good way to solve IDLE land.

If there was a LAND tax --> for example, 10 DEC per month, then having IDLE land does no good. The owner would be better off selling it to another player to make the land useful. Unproductive LAND does not hide the True SUPPLY/DEMAND, and that impacts the market's pricing of LAND.

Today we don't have a TAX the way I suggested. Because of that, we might not see 10K common land plots dumped on the market. In real life, there is property tax and other FEES to keep LAND, even if it it undeveloped.

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