A Battle Either Way

about 1 year ago

Do you remember when Splintershards (SPS) were bouncing around the dollar value mark? I wouldn't mind that around these days, though I don't see it happening anytime soon, if ever again. It is not that it is impossible of course because this is crypto, but there is a lot more SPS and still not a huge amount of reason to actually hold it, yet hold it I am. Because I have no DEC.

Apparently, I am currently 170th largest SPS holder, which is not bad considering it has been under two years since I started getting into Splinterlands, though I am scared to do the math as to how much in the red I am.

Because the SPS price has seen better days:

But, "in the red" isn't exactly in the red in the same way as it might be if I had been using fiat to buy, because I wasn't. When I got into Splinterlands I bought some DICE packs just before there was a large spike in the values of Splinterlands in 2021 and the all time highs in the crypto markets. While I sunk a lot into cards and packs that have gone down in value a lot, whatever I used would have gone down in value against the dollar a lot anyway, because it has run pretty much concurrent to the crypto markets and I used crypto. Buying Splinterlands assets that have dropped in price 80% doesn't matter much if using tokens that have dropped in value 80% anyway. It is the same technical loss.

The problem is when looking at it from the perspective of the highs as valued in fiat, because then, the losses for pretty much everyone holding crypto are probably pretty eyewatering. Yet, how many are actually worried about this? It is quite an incredible symptom of crypto participation for many people, that astronomical amounts of gains and loss are kind of taken in stride.

This is my Hive account currently:

I think for a very short period, that was reading around 700K in value. About two of my houses worth - Technically. At some point though, the technical value has to generate practical value, something I can use to improve the life of my family and convert what I have been doing for all of these years, into something tangible. What that might be and how and when I would do that, well, that is something I still have to work out. What I would like to be able to create is something that is a bit more reliable in income, so that there is always a "guaranteed" (nothing is truly guaranteed) floor income, where for example I can rely on rent value trickling in on an apartment or two.

But, while that rent value would be valuable, it isn't necessarily the kind of value that significantly alters my living standards, as it is more like a consistent pay bonus coming in monthly, rather than something that would fundamentally boost a change in life. However, over time it compounds through other investments and increases its impact on financial wellbeing, which is also an attractive proposition - other than the time it takes.

But, in the meantime, I don't have lumpsums to buy apartments, nor do I have large amounts of fiat to invest into the dips. What I do have though are the assets in crypto I already hold that I can use to build upon and, some level (not overly high) of mental acuity to and skills to combine to learn and earn along the way, slowly ramping up holdings and building a "valuable" portfolio, with the value being an assumed future value.

They say that assumptions are dangerous, but all speculative investing is based on assumptions that something in the future is going to happen. Yes, this is predictive based on what we know, but once we make the decision, we are making it under the assumption that we are correct or with a level of confidence that weighs risk and reward adequately. While there are no guarantees, we can hope that we are right. Having hope is an assumption that things can be better - there is no guarantee that this is actually true. Things could just keep getting worse.

But history doesn't support this.

There are ups and down, but there are always ups again after the downs and downs after the ups. The markets are just like feelings, they come and go like clouds. Sometimes everyone is feeling good, sometimes many are feeling bad. However, that doesn't mean there are no opportunities when feeling bad, it isn't like we need just sit and wait, doing nothing in the meantime. Yet many do, just like many depressed people struggle to get out of bad and do what they need to do, when in actual fact, they could potentially do what they need to do and still be depressed. It isn't easy of course, but it is possible.

It's a battle.

And I think that a lot of the investment mindset that is required to build personal value is a battle, because it is not the way we are hardwired. We aren't just not designed to take on risk, but we are also made to fear the negative feelings associated with that risk and loss. So, even if we rationally understand that the risk to reward profile is in the favor of investing, our desire to avoid the negative emotional state often overpower our logic. Beating this mental conflict is no easy feat, but what is the alternative?

Gotta keep on battling.

At some point the odds will be proven and my assumptions about the future that led to my decisions and filled me with hope, will be proven correct or incorrect. At that moment, the past will not matter, only the outcome. But the journey doesn't stop there either.