Boosters and Brawlers

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There is just one day left in the Boosted VOUCHER drop that is emitted proportionally to SPS stakers at double the rate of the Presale, meaning that ~66K are being dropped daily. I am getting about 12 of these at the moment, which goes to show either how little SPS I have or, how much other people have. I don't feel like I have so little, but since 232 million SPS are staked, it isn't a huge comparative amount.

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Give me a Boost

While the last boosted drop is tomorrow, 20K VOUCHERS will still be dropped daily to staked SPS, with them being needed if wanting to get bonus packs. For example, if a person is buying 100 packs in one go from in-game Splinterlands, they qualify for 10 bonus packs, but to get them, vouchers are needed. As the pack prices are $4 each, if the price of VOUCHER is less than 4 on the secondary market, it is worth buying 10 of them for a discount on packs - if buying in larger amounts during the general sale that is.

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I have used some of my VOUCHERS already, but the last drop tomorrow should see me get over the line, to ensure that I have 400 VOUCHER to cover my expected purchase of 2000 packs at the open sale. This will mean my average pack purchase price is going to be $3.33. This is risky in many ways, as with the falling prices of cards, the value of the opened packs is often well below a dollar and I have opened quite a few where the market value is under 50 cents. This means that it might be better off purchasing individual cards instead of participating in the lottery of pack opening.

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Drips and Drops

But, there are some other variables in this to consider also, with one being the cards that will be airdropped based on pack purchases (remember in-game purchases only - not secondary markets). The first round in the Presale of Doctor Blight was one for every 50 packs, but the next round is going to be one for every 300 packs. I am not very good at math, but I think that means that in this first round of drops (two cards included as they are released every million packs sold), there will be around half as many as there are of Blights.

However, I have also heard (and I am hoping it is true) that the first 24 hours of the open sale will be included in the pack count to qualify for the airdrop cards (can someone confirm this please?), so there might be a few more that go at that point. I think this is because of the "bulk purchases" that are being arranged by the game creators, as that will come out of the open sale packs and I assume are organized on the game side, not by the purchasers themselves.

The drop cards are a pretty big incentive and while there are far more than in previous editions, the expectation is that there are also going to be far more players coming into the game, meaning that scarcity still is an important factor. But, those players aren't here yet, which is why there is such a rapid decrease in prices of cards, as people dump what they don't want, for what they do. However, as more players come in and combination of cards starts to really happen, the scarcity is going to increase again on these cards too, just like it has in the past.

Many paths

Because of this, I am taking a bit of a hybrid strategy, as while in pretty deep already and getting deeper, I am hoping to get the packs bought so that I qualify for all future drops to a significant degree and, then start to pick up what I am missing for play from the market as individual cards.

In regards to investment strategy into Splinterlands, I am a reliant on the past of the game and, what people have told me about the future, as I have only got 6 months of experience myself. This is a financially risky move for me and might be very expensive, but if the game continues to grow, it should see a significant return in the future and people will be lamenting and reminiscing about the days where those crap cards were pennies on the dollar.

How low can you go?

What is good to remember is that Splinterlands cards are still a crypto like any other (in many ways) and therefore, can be thought about like those days of "dollar Bitcoin" or "ten cent HIVE". If you could go back to this day a year ago, you would have been able to pick up HIVE at 11 cents. That means that 1000 Hive would cost 110 dollars. That same 1000 today is worth 1640, so about a 1500% gain.

This is also a year ago:

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But even though I got in before that large parabolic price rise (about July), that doesn't mean the value of my cards have gone 10x in the last 6 months, because, I have DICE cards not the earlier releases. The majority of the value of the rise is due to the demand on the older cards by players like myself, who need them to compete. However, they are very high scarcity, so when so many new players came in with DICE, demand on old cards still outpaced supply. I am hoping that the same thing will happen with DICE cards, once the demand from players coming in with CHAOS LEGION releases want some more power - whether it be to play or stake to LAND.

Wakey, Wakey hands on Stakey

As said, Splinterlands cards act "just like any other crypto" in many ways, which means that they can be staked for a yield, which is essentially what LAND is going to offer holders. The difference being though, that instead of a largely useless yield token that does nothing, what asset owners will be yielding from their stake is, usable assets of various kinds that affect the outcomes of the game itself. This means that there are layers of utility that can earn in the cards to play, rent and stake, setting up tensions on the supply and demand.

If a lot of decent cards (collection power [CP] expected to be needed for LAND efficiency) get staked to produce additional assets, that means they are not available to buy or rent. This means that players will need to move to less CP cards, but will still need to fill the quota needed for their respective League. This means demand pressure on rentals should see rent value increase. But, depending on how lucrative LAND staking is, the demand to buy CP-heavy cards increases, putting price pressure on individual card value also.

But, on top of this, SPS will also be needed, DEC will be needed, VOUCHERS will be needed, but they aren't all needed by an individual account to enjoy the game, though some might be, for example some CREDITS to buy some packs or cards, or some DEC for rentals. But, the "full investor" is going to have a hard time keeping up with the ecosystem and it is likely going to be near impossible to optimize everything.

This is ideal.

Cannae do it all!

For real value to be spread, economic "inefficiencies" have to be achieved, where while there is better and worse paths to take, there are many paths and no one is able to really take advantage of them all equally. This leaves a lot of holes, where for example while a person is managing assets, they are unable to play their deck adequately, so they delegate it to a player who can play well, earn from it and, then split the takings. Or, while someone is buying LAND to stake on, they have to buy from someone who has cards to add to it, or pay for delegated SPS to maximize it. These "many tensions" creates a rich working environment where all kinds of participants can choose their own investment adventure through the Splinterlands.

Like anything, time will tell whether this is going to be a true success that survives long term into the region of decades, or dies in the space of a few years. But, while some people are umming and ahhing about what to do, others FUD and complain about current conditions and there is plenty of uncertainty surrounding all of it - there are sharks in the water circling, looking to take a bite out now, so that if that long-term success does happen, they are well positioned to be staked in the economy and then have more options as to how they continue to play the game.

Valued Feedback Loops

Now for me, there is more to it than Splinterlands of course, as I am also HIVE staked and stacked, with the value of my HIVE holdings well exceeding that of Splinterlands. But, this is another facet of my approach to the game, another variable complexity and I hope that each supports the other to create further demand and supply tensions internally and most importantly, from external entrants looking to see what all of the fuss is about. There are very few true crypto communities that are as rich in diversity as those on Hive and very few crypto games that have the complexity and support of Splinterlands - I think they work well together and the more this happens, the more value they will add to each other, not just economically, but also socially.

For many and me included, it is all very confusing to wrap the head around, so I will do what I can, as I can -

and hodl on.

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]

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27 comments
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I would have been able to be an active spl player but the technicality is too much and expensive, reason why I play other games now but I hope to get into it when I get a new pc, I believe the game has evolved past mobile user.

Good luck on your monster journey and may the monster be with you.

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I have heard there are people running three accounts in tournaments on mobile :D I couldn't do it - but I play occasionally from there. However, I am not sure if all of the SPS management is possible on mobile.

I think that what is interesting is that it isn't too late to get involved, but it is going to cost. I think that this is going to become more industry standard - people already pay for games, consoles and subscriptions - even though there is no return on them.

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The cost of things rn is what gives me goosebumps, its really crazy spending thousands of dollars on a game. No one would have thought such situation would ever happen in the early days of crypto.

Not spreading myself too thin but I would try and get involve when I can afford the cost.

Still into rs game ATM, an idle nft gaming, its a great place to start my nft gaming journey.

Spl will definitely go crazy in the future and the best time to start is now, if you have the money.

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No one would have thought such situation would ever happen in the early days of crypto.

Well, maybe not in the earliest of days, but the last five years for sure - the industry is maturing and crypto is largely agnostic on where it can be used. Gaming is an obvious step to further adoption - as it is already heavily tokenized. Social like Hive is another :)

So much development to come, and billions of users into crypto also :)

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all I can say is that my Harklaw is not doing all that great😂
(but at least he is getting rented)

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You also forgot to mention the SPS Oracle nodes, you might want to host and run one of those beasties.

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I think I won't have enough SPS for that, but I will support someone who does :)

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I am getting about 12 of these at the moment

You make more than me, so I wouldn't feel too bad. It looks like you have just about twice as much staked as I do.

The way I read it having purchased 300 packs guarantees you at least one card. You might get more, but you are sure to get at least one. I don't think it is one per 300 packs. At least I hope not because I am only going to be able to buy about 400 packs total I think.

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Yeah, I think that is the guarantee for 1:300

I don't feel bad about the stake I have, but it is interesting how much is actually staked out of the total supply.

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I re-read the wording and I think you are right. That is pretty disappointing to think that I will only get one of each of the cards...

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For real value to be spread, economic "inefficiencies" have to be achieved, where while there is better and worse paths to take, there are many paths and no one is able to really take advantage of them all equally. This leaves a lot of holes, where for example while a person is managing assets, they are unable to play their deck adequately, so they delegate it to a player who can play well, earn from it and, then split the takings. Or, while someone is buying LAND to stake on, they have to buy from someone who has cards to add to it, or pay for delegated SPS to maximize it. These "many tensions" creates a rich working environment where all kinds of participants can choose their own investment adventure through the Splinterlands.

looking at splinterlands chart data from last year I can see a bullish trend, splinterland have enough of investment package to offer, splinterland game is open for different opportunity where individuals can invest on. just like buying of lands, weapons etc. we are on the metaverse phase now so will might see more potential on splinterlands.

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I think there is a lot of potential to be realized in the next 12 months - but the next buying opportunity is almost here :)

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(Edited)

Don't know if you've heard the song but this is one of my favorites! Just replace "float" with "hold" lol

For now, Splinterlands is more valuable overall than my Hive assets which is fine with me for now! I'm slowly shifting that balance, while at the same time taking opportunities to invest in both slowly. Then Ragnarok is going to come along and throw a wrench into all of this hahaha oh well.

I am going to see how the general sale goes, as much as I would love to jump in with both feet and snap up 2k packs I am trying to have a balanced approach with other priorities. I was fortunate and lucky enough to be in since November 2018, a few months shy of the launch but I wasn't bringing in that much funds to invest in the game. Still, I have a good amount of promo cards and even some awesome gold foils (mainly rare's) from that period so I'm enjoying the returns they are bringing. It's certainly a balancing act of making investments in the game and not being in too much in case it all goes to shit lol. I think the Splinterlands team has been pretty good and creative with how they have come up with ways to keep people enthusiastic and entertained that play the game so I think it's definitely got a couple good years left. I wonder what the game will look like in 5 years. Will it be kind of like DoTA? That game morphed out of another game and took a life of it's own on and is one of the most strategic games I've ever played, mixed with a lot of luck of course.

Hold on!

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I have no idea about Ragnarok yet!

Do you "regret" not putting more in early? I don't just mean for the value of it now, but the assets themselves - so many great cards were incredibly cheap back then.

It will be interesting to see how the game evolves in the coming years and if it will start to get more visual and dynamic. I suspect there will be games within games, not just for the economy of it either :)

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Yeah I know, I think it will definitely take on a life of it's own, with all kinds of different things that are evolved out of the base layer of the SPL cards.

In some ways I certainly regret not getting into it more but at the same time I didn't have a lot of available assets. I still don't have that many (incredibly grateful for what I do have now though!) but I am gaining more traction and my payouts have increased which has absolutely helped me be able to afford some things I didn't have the chance to before. I didn't cash anything out into Fiat, I was using it to bolster my account and invest in other assets on Hive Engine and stuff so there is some regret but not a considerable amount. I'm just glad to have been around and playing when I was. I still remember some of my first games, sitting in the car while my wife was in the store and I would try to finish a match or two and get frustrated because there weren't enough players! I was waiting the full length bar and not getting a match hahaha.

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and I would try to finish a match or two and get frustrated because there weren't enough players!

Not much of a problem now :D Though, does it happen in the highest leagues?

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I think that the crypto games are in babyhood now, however they will promote in a short time.

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THey are going to move quite rapidly I think, as most of the games are already made - they just need the token layer integrated.

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Wow
I am feeling a bit overwhelmed by all the things I need to learn about the Splinterlands ecosystem. There are so many earning opportunities there, but the multiple currencies makes apples to apples comparisons difficult.

Add yo it all the math around the airdrops and probabilities of winning reward cards and it gets real complicated.

To be honest while this post helped me I still feel like my head may explode. Add yo this the Ragnorok situation and I need to have a beer or two and chill out.

I will just pick a day yo sit down and write our tasks I need to perform one by one, and just get her done.

Thanks

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