Chance to Hold

We are pretty close to exactly half way through the first Splinterlands conflict, which gives a good opportunity to predict where we might be toward the end, and what the chances might be. It is hard to calculate precisely, because CP is being added into the conflicts continuously, which is why there is a total of 16 gold foil legendaries from the Rebellion set on the market.

Currently, for every chance opportunity, the likelihood of getting a card is less than 1% (0.00913), which means that to realistically give a card, the final amount of chances would have to be over the guaranteed rate, of 200 chances for a card. As said, it is hard to estimate exactly what the final chance count will be, but I am now expecting it to be around 960,000, which is doubled from here, plus 10 percent, to account for what has been added in over the last two weeks since the start. This puts the chances of getting a card from a single Chance entry, at 0.42%, so statistically speaking, around 250 chances will yield one card.

In this sense, it is better to have the guarantees, but of course, that guarantee comes at a steep cost. Over the last week I have bought some GFLs to boost my chances, but more importantly, increase the amount of chances I get, so that I am able to acquire more guaranteed cards. At this halfway point, I am just about getting a single maxed Rage card, and by the end of the conflict, I am on track for about 2 in total. My hourly Chances are a bit lower at the moment on average, but this will increase since I have added more CP. I estimate that I will have around 4600 chances by the end of the conflict.

That is 23 guaranteed cards.

I was originally looking at doubling that amount through chances, however, because I am not the only one who has added CP, it is more likely that I will get around 18 cards from the chances, for a total of 41. As I have said, with the use of vouchers, that will hopefully yield me a maxed gold version of rage, which I will be putting straight onto a wagon. Regardless of what I get, it will go onto a wagon, as it will boost my earnings for the next conflict.

I am assuming most will do this, which will make for an interesting rental market for these cards, as while a Wagon'd card can be played, it can't be rented or sold. So, it is likely that even with a lot of cards being printed, the rental market is going to be pretty thin for a while, and it is unlikely that there are going to be many golds to rent at all, as they have such a large impact on the CP required for chances.

At the top of the leaderboard, @bravetofu is contributing over 4x as much as me to the conflict, which essentially means he has about 4x as much CP, and therefore, and 4x as much value. Though, this isn't quite the case as I have added several gold foil legendaries to boost my CP stack, so I will very slowly start to creep up and close that gap, percentage wise, though he will keep pulling away.

However, what will be interesting is that those who have enough guaranteed cards and get the base number of golds, will effectively increase their CP by about 10 through this first conflict alone. The ones who are lucky enough to pull golds on chances alone, especially not too many chances, will increase their percentage by far more. What this means though is that the earliest in, those that spent the most on cards and packs, and bought from the secondary markets, have the greatest chance of increasing their draw on the pool, to claim a greater percentage of the chances in the next round, and so on and on.

People see this as a "rich getting richer" system, and it is in the sense that those who spend get the most cards, but it is a better system than others in the past in my opinion, as it allows for new people to get in and compete. Currently, a complete set of modern cards (CL, RW, RB) is around 10,500 dollars for regulars. That is a lot, but with that, a person can compete at the highest levels of the modern game. That also gives access to about 250,000 CP for the conflicts, and of course the benefits of SPS for wins from playing, and the associated reward cards, and chest rewards.

It might never break even.

But, this is the thing with these games, they are a type of entertainment too, and part of that entertainment is in the chance of increasing values. It is no different to investing into a token, or a stock, but in order to potentially benefit, investment of some kind needs to be made. In many ways, most of us aren't the types of people who are going to make our money through invention and entrepreneurship, so we find other ways to invest ourselves, including through the creations and actions of others.

Just think, in 2022, people spent almost $6,000,000,000 on content creators just on OnlyFans, and what did they get out of it? What is the payoff? What is the return on investment?

People spend a lot to play with themselves.

Are they considered holders?

Have they got anything in their hands anyone is willing to buy?

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]