ETH, BTC, HIVE and SPS-culation

A few days ago, we crossed the 2/3rds milestone of the SPS airdrop and so far, so good - but I am not sure if I am up or down, because of the price of DEC. Let's assume up. I definitely haven't bought 200K SPS worth of DEC, but I know have more than that much between my accounts, earned through the CP of my cards and the pooling of DEC over the last months. I am hoping it will be one of those tokens that are going to beat even the wildest of expectations, rather than one that is underwhelming.

This is the journey so far, with the arrow indicating the start of the very flat period over the last two and a half months.

Back in the day, pulling out of a bear market, I would look for this kind of shape - flat. The reason is that when everything else starts pumping, it is only a matter of time. What I would do is buy some random flat tokens that were hovering for a long time flat and then, set a sell on them 80 to 150% up. Scientific this is not, but I don't remember one of them not pumping come the bull market.

Is there a bull market coming?

I don't know, but I suspect that after a couple years, there are going to be some ETH bulls driving the value upward on the shift from PoW to PoS that is expected toward the end of Q2 this year. Currently, BTC hold about 41% of the total market cap and Ethereum 19% - quite a gap - but, with a bit of a bullrun on Ethereum, that might change drastically.

PoS on Ethereum means Eth becomes a staking chain and that will likely soak up a lot of the loose tokens on the marketplace, especially those with significant holdings, as it takes at least 32 ETH (110K worth) to become a validator. So, that decreases liquidity of Eth on the markets, effectively making it easier to push in price, as the markets thin out and, there is added incentive to take more off the markets and for example be part of joint pools to validate. A thin market with high demand is of course going to see some upward pressure on it and if it doubles in price from here, it will probably knock BTC off the perch of top spot - the flippening.

"Fuck no!"

No Bitcoin maximalist worth their weight after living in mother's basement for 12 years, is going to stand for that shit, so there is likely going to be a following of the markets, where rather than BTC making the move like normal, Eth will lead the way upward. Thin liquidity on ETH, competition from BTC - what happens with the alts?

Usecase tokens are the future of the industry and while most are still speculative (like SPS), people are going to increasingly be looking to hold tokens that they can do something with to earn, not just use to attract some other shit token to sell into some other token, and then into some other token. People are going to look to "park" their funds in places where they will not only hold value, but bring in additional income consistently.

We are moving into a potentially very volatile period for crypto and the two major tokens are going to go head to head. These are also the two best known tokens and the ones that "non-crypto" crypto buyers are interested in. With the FUD around energy expenditure on BTC over the last year and the move to the "greener" PoS mechanisms, there is reason to justify that institutional investors might start shifting some of their funds ETH-ways.

But, no crypto alt trader is is going to go all in on ETH, as there are very few ETH maximalists - so they tend to have their own portfolio of other alt-tokens. This means that as the two big guns climb at the top, investors will be skimming profits and laddering out into other tokens they believe will follow. What will get the lion's share is anyone's guess, but there is going to be a lot of value floating around in the wallets of people feeling very flush with wealth. Capturing even fragments of the net worth from either is going to see pretty much any token drive upward and those with usecase are less likely to fall all the way back, come the bear market sentiment.

I am terrible at predicting the markets, but since it is Saturday night and I have a G&T under my belt, I am going to say that if this does play out, ETH will go over double from here, which means that BTC will create a buffer and drive the price double on BTC also, to maintain the cushion. This means we could see +7K ETH and +80K BTC come summer. Would that work out well for you?

For me who hold some BTC and some ETH but not huge amounts, I am looking for the ALT coins to pull in some of that additional value and I suspect that many of them would go through investment and divestment cycles, pushing prices of individual smaller tokens 5-10x. For example, for Hive to go 10x from here (a market cap of about 4.5B) it only requires about 2B of investment to go through the markets *at current prices, but as soon as that started, it would soak up all the soft hands very quickly, thin the market fast and could see a spike upward of 20x. Crazy, eh?

Yeah, a lot of people can't see that happening, but the way the markets work in regards to liquidity, it isn't unheard of happening and it will happen again. Sure, it might be dumb luck based on speculative investors, but eventually, more and more of those investors will start seeing the various values of HIVE, bringing the floor price up, especially since they are so far up on the markets in general. An orca worth of HIVE at 2 dollars is only a drop in the ocean for someone who bought ETH at 100 and BTC at 1000, when they are 7K and 80K respectively and even as it drops, more will "let it ride" since it is only a fraction of total wealth.

Now, SPS in all of this? Well, that is going to be used on LAND and for other purchases like Riftwatchers, so if the markets do coincide with releases and information, it is going to attract a lot more interest and can easily go 5x under the shine of a bullmarket.

But luckily, we don't have to worry about any of this speculation, because the bull is dead and we are looking to get cozy in hibernation with the bear.

I should know by now.

Don't drink and speculate.

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]