It's CHAOS out there

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I have been umming and ahhing about what I was going to do when the Splinterlands Chaos Legion packs went on presale - I just made it much simpler for myself!

This could be genius!!

Or very costly.

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I have ~13000 SPS Staked, which gets me 3.3 VOUCHERS a day (at current percentage), which is around the 100 I need in order to qualify for the first bonus tier, to get 10% extra. In order to get enough vouchers to get the 100, I have to wait until the end of the voucher drop and then buy in "bulk" (100 is not many) to get what I am after.

This means I would have to have all of my SPS staked for the entire presale, otherwise I will fall short and not get the extra ten packs. This means that if SPS does happen to get some upward action, I can't take advantage of it, as there is a 7 day unstaking period.

Currently, the lowest ask for VOUCHER on the secondary market is 28 HIVE (21 dollars), which means that if buying and using, it will cost 25 dollars for a pack of CHAOS LEGION cards - Crazy!!!

So.... Instead of trying to work out all of the dynamics I did what I too often do in these kinds of circumstances.

FOMO'd

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I had 3 vouchers from the first drop a few hours ago and then on Hive-Engine, bough 97 more at an average buy price of around 26 HIVE, which is a little over 2500 HIVE. Then, in Splinterlands, I purchased x100 packs and got the 10 bonus packs. This was my stake-based allocated quota for the month (all stake remaining equal), the difference being, I would have had to buy at the end. I also used SPS to purchase the packs, so that I got a 10% discount on the purchase price.

So now, I have all the packs I would have been able to get -

Now what?

Well, I am glad I rhetorically asked.

I sold 1000 SPS I had liquid for about 1100 HIVE, which gets about 45% of my VOUCHER purchase price back. On top of this, I started unstaking my SPS. This means that tomorrow, I will get 25% less vouchers, so instead of 3.3, I will get 2.47 and if I continue unstaking, next week I will get about 1.6 a day. At the end of the month, I will have about 40 VOUCHERs, which is 60 less than I would have had, but since I have my packs already, that is okay. I can also keep it staked and sell the vouchers for HIVE and use that to buy SPS back later too. I will also get (I believe) some SPS airdrop points for the 110 packs, so that brings back a little too.

I have options.

I suspect that SPS will drop somewhat after the end of the presale and perhaps during and so, I am hoping to offset today's obscene purchase by selling some SPS while others are still claiming vouchers. What this means though, is if other people do similar, the voucher prices could get far crazier, as people will be unstaking and getting less so they can sell their SPS, but looking to pick them up on the secondary market - which pushes prices of vouchers up a lot.

But, this also drops the price of SPS, which changes purchasing dynamics too. For example, I paid 402 SPS to get 100 packs, which also included a 10% discount (I was going to use credits, but I will use them to buy cards). However, if people start selling SPS in order to buy vouchers, the 10% sale for using SPS gets more expensive. If SPS was 45 cents, I would have needed about 800 to buy my packs. This SPS goes to the Splinterlands Team, so I don't think they are going to be dumping it daily (but who knows!).

So now, I will be able to sell my daily VOUCHERs (or save them and buy more packs) without having to worry about missing out on my quote. In fact, I can now go well above my quota and increase my chances of getting key cards, if I choose. This is something I considered doing anyway, so not much actually changes except, I no longer have to worry about the possibility of not getting vouchers - as I no longer need them. I think it is possible that toward the end of the presale, vouchers are going to be at a premium, as people look to increase their holdings in order to get to the next tier for discounts.

For example, If I was only getting 90 vouchers from my drop, I would be damn sure to buy another 10 in order to get the 10 "free" packs. However, if I wait til the end of the presale, everyone else is doing the same, so the prices might be far higher than now. So, I would be looking to buy when prices are lower or, systematically over the month to cost average those 10. For me to get an extra ten in the drop however, I would have to increase my SPS stake by 11% (about 1200 SPS) which would cost me about 1050 dollars and, it would mean locking it up from today to get them. 10 vouchers today though, cost 200 dollars, but of course, one then doesn't have the SPS, which could go higher, or it could drop.

The dynamics of the tokenization of just this presale is intense and is going to be quite stressful for many people trying to maximize. At least in this digital world, I don't need to concern myself with maximization, so I can play the game and afford to "lose", knowing that I am already well in the black based on my capital investments.

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In the time I have written this, the volume has doubled and the price of vouchers has moved from 19.80 to almost 23 dollars each. This means that if it keeps going in this direction or even stays here, my move is warranted, however, I suspect there is going to be some pretty severe volatility over the coming weeks, as people demand and supply all of the various tokens in play, as well as start purchasing their packs in larger lots.

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Yes, this move might backfire on me financially, but I don't think it can end up being that bad that I will cry about it much. For now however, I have the same amount of packs that an account with 400,000 SPS staked could have (in their first day) and they are secured away in my inventory, waiting to be opened when the open sale goes live. Who knows, perhaps I will get lucky (doubtful) and score some decent cards to warrant this move, but I really, really hope that I will at least get some promo cards out of it, as the "guarantee" is statistical as far as I know, not set in stone. That is part of the game though :)

So, how are you playing the "World of Splinterlands Tokenization" game?

Are you buying vouchers, selling SPS, selling vouchers, buying with DEC, Credits or SPS, looking to up to a higher tier, waiting til the open sale. Or, don't GAF at all?

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]

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83 comments
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It's a mess of a calculation isn't it?!?

I guess you also have to factor in the SPS you'll not be getting from holding the Hive to Pool with DEC and any SPS too, but then add on the 30K points from holding the packs.

And then factor in the relative change in the Hive price too.

On the plus side all of this makes learning Portuguse look simple!

!PIZZA

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I guess you also have to factor in the SPS you'll not be getting from holding the Hive to Pool with DEC and any SPS too,

Do you mean to pair? One thing I do have is, enough HIVE for that :) Even after the buy, I don't (unless DEC increases) need to transfer into HE for it.

And then factor in the relative change in the Hive price too.

This is always an issue in these circumstances.

On the plus side all of this makes learning Portuguse look simple!

Sim!

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Umm Don't GAF as was never really involved in this from the beginning and have no clue what is going on to be honest. Sounds all too complicated and just hope you do well after all of that effort.

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Wow you FOMO'd respectable I was thinking wait a few days however sometimes going all in may just be the smartest move your earning the points :)

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(Edited)

Forgot to add in and now you can sit back and watch as your still getting the other 40 tokens in to see if it was smart XD

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:)

I had completely other plans yesterday - but I feel okay having done this and it means I don't have to think that much about it daily :)

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I've bought some VOUCHERS today, although not as many as you :)

1000 would be nice for the end of the pre-sale/VOUCHER drop, but that means i'll have to purchase around 700 more before then. $25 a pack though feels like a lot, and I think I'll just see how things are looking in a few weeks.

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25x700 is 18000 dollars odd. That is a lot - unless you really want the title and promos.

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I would like the title, but 18k for vouchers and another 4k for the purchase is a lot of funds. I could sell the SPS drop and DEC earnings everyday for a month, but don't want to neglect the pools. Decisions, decisions!

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It isn't easy. At full launch though, I will get some packs :)

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1000 packs was going to be my level - until the details emerged and I scraped to 100 :D

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I think you'll fomo in for another 100 :P

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If they drop down in price a lot, for sure :)

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The price of vouchers are quite hit me in the morning when i checked it... Your decision a bit surprised me as well, since i was speculating to buy some packs during the presale on a top of a double price. I guessed during last week the voucher will costs around 4$ just the same price as the packs.
This is the first day of the vouchers appearance and therefor i hope the current prices are just because of the first day hype.
Even if the SPS price going to dip to half or third, and the same 'll happen to the vouchers its still cheaper to buy the packs during the upcoming weeks.

About the vouchers price: It's Chaos out there, but it's rather Madness right now!

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I guessed during last week the voucher will costs around 4$ just the same price as the packs.

Very possibly!, But I won't have to buy them then either, or all the way down. The challenge with waiting is if there is high scarcity and people are looking to complete their quotas, they might go higher. The volumes I am buying and selling aren't huge, but they do get me in the door :)

Even if the SPS price going to dip to half or third, and the same 'll happen to the vouchers its still cheaper to buy the packs during the upcoming weeks.

Yes, but if I can sell some SPS early and buy it back at half in the mid presale, I can power it up and earn more vouchers too.

At the end of the day, I think it will work out about even for me, but it means I don't have to worry about it.

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I am sitting at 2 Vouchers a day, I decided to just buy 2 packs a day!! I would also like to buy more packs, even a 100 promo pack, but my vouchers is just to little!! (My poor wife is a new player with 0 vouchers, thus won't even be able to buy one pack, even if she wanted too!!)

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(My poor wife is a new player with 0 vouchers, thus won't even be able to buy one pack, even if she wanted too!!)

Only a few weeks until the open sale goes on and, no one can open any packs until then anyway :)

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I think I said before, You can’t lose with splinterland, I commend your early move, definitely fomo. I am selling my vouchers 30 hive for one, worth it.

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I hope the prices stay up. Buying mine at 26 Hive gives me a chance to sell what I get from now on :)

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I only have 2075 SPS staked so I am just waiting for pre-sale to end. Maybe I will get a few packs later...

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That's very nice!

I got in far too late to get a decent amount of vouchers and I don't really feel like buying them at these prices right now... I might just wait for the presale to end and see where to go from there.

I might miss this wave of millionaire-making but hopefully I'll catch the next one lol

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I will load up on cards at the open sale, but this part is fun to play with.

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Man, how complicated can tokenomics of a card game presale go? 😂

Getting that 100 packs would be juicy, since you get 2 guaranteed promo cards. I'm aiming for at least 50 to get that one promo card, and have staked SPS accordingly.

I'm buying some vouchers too, though. If they get a lot cheaper, I'll buy more and maybe go for 100 packs. But if they get really expensive – which I think they will after they stop dropping – I'll just sell the extra vouchers for premium.

Though I'd like to take advantage of SPS during presale. SPS should have a lot of buying pressure, since there's no reason NOT to buy with SPS – the moment you wanna buy, instead of purchasing with DEC, you're gonna swap it for SPS and save 10% of DEC. Depending how VOUCHER and SPS price act, I'll unstake some before the presale ends and sell back to HIVE.

Well, this or that I got some vouchers as well so I have less worries and options open.

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Getting that 100 packs would be juicy, since you get 2 guaranteed promo cards. I'm aiming for at least 50 to get that one promo card, and have staked SPS accordingly.

it is only statistically guaranteed though, right?

If they get a lot cheaper, I'll buy more

Me too :)

for me, this is the best part of the game - working out wtf to do!

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it is only statistically guaranteed though, right?

Well, I was actually wondering the same thing.

Each pack purchased during the presale (including bonus packs) will have a 2% chance of receiving a limited-edition promo card, and each of those will have a 2% chance of being a gold foil version (1 out of 50 on average). Accounts that have purchased 50 or more packs during the presale will be guaranteed to receive at least one limited-edition promo card for EACH 50 packs purchased

I hope the Splinterland team knows some basic statistics, because if there is no rule that "if player x buys 50 packs, he gets a promo card" then no promo cards are guaranteed.

See, if the only rule is that there's a 2% chance to get a promo card per pack, then the likelyhood of NOT getting a promo card is 98%. Thus, the likelyhood of not getting a promo card in 50 packs is 0,98^50=0,36 so 36%. Which means that there's really a 64% of getting a promo card for 50 packs.

Reading the above it seems though that there's a specific rule that says, "if you bought 50 packs, you get a promo card".

I might have to ask this in Splinterlands discord channel to be sure 😅

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then no promo cards are guaranteed.

Where people are getting the "guarantee" from is the calculator I think - which isn't put out by the SL team.

I might have to ask this in Splinterlands discord channel to be sure

Let me know please!

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Well, gandalf replied that he also understood that it's 2% chance increase per pack until every 49 packs, for 50 it's guaranteed. I sure hope, because I don't wanna buy lottery tickets for the promo cards :D Still waiting what aggroed says (if he even sees it).

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Wow, my first comment for more than a year lol. Isn't 1 Million Vouchers being printed everyday for the next 30 days? Vouchers should come down to a $1 lol

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This whole voucher thing really threw off a lot of peoples plans about how and how much they were going to purchase this release. I get the thinking behind it, but $25 for a pack of cards is just ridiculous. I am not sure I can justify that even if I had a huge stream of passive income rolling in. I am likely going to just wait until the end and see what happens when all of my vouchers are added up.

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I get the thinking behind it, but $25 for a pack of cards is just ridiculous.

Unless close to tiers for larger discounts.

I am likely going to just wait until the end and see what happens when all of my vouchers are added up.

Many will do this and I am hoping there will be a market for vouchers through the whole period --- to recoup my expenditure! :D

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Watching. Very carefully. My knowledge is scant so that makes any move I do a potential hazard. Plus the price is quite a bit higher than I expected.

I may not give in to the FOMO and seek other streams. But, I will happily watch the fun had... along with that stress thing.

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if you are looking for just cards, I would wait til the open sale and get the packs for 4 dollars :)

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That is a great idea. Thank you! No stress, no stress

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I have 30K SPS staked and I'll get enough vouchers by the end of the month to buy 224, which I'll buy with SPS and with the bundle bonus that'll make me paying $3.28 per pack. I'm leaving all my daily airdrop in liquid now and standing pat with 30K staked, so I'll have more than enough SPS to make the pack purchases. What an exciting time and SO MANY WAYS to think about what to do. Now I'm trying to decide what to do with the liquid SPS from here on out.....I see an SPS paid vacation on the horizon!

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Will you sell the extra vouchers if you have them, or just buy the packs to the limit?

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As of right now I'm thinking that I will buy as many packs as I can with the vouchers I receive, so I'm not planning selling any or buying any as far as vouchers are concerned. But if they go to even crazier high prices, I might change my plan...

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I think it won't fully be known until near the end of the presale for what people will do. I suspect some large dumps - but that will mean some people picking up a lot of vouchers :)

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I hate math so I'll most likely just get drunk and FOMO in ;)

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Well since I only had 0.031 of a voucher I decided to just sell it since I will likely not get to a whole voucher before they are gone.

I'm still using SPS to fund my Hive-engine token buys. I' been averaging 20 SPS on the last couple of Sundays.

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yeah - better to sell. Save a bit and buy some packs at the open sale - or individual cards :)

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(Edited)

If you don't have it, I highly recommend this. Your snipe game will improve dramatically!

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It was a nice touch to get the 'backfire' ability. When you are buying vouchers early, you are using the assumptions that they will be more expensive later on towards the end of the month long drop. It is a very fair assumption. So it could be correct.

The counter hypothesis is, right now people don't have too many vouchers, you can simply look at the depth chart to see that sell side is extremely thin.

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This is a classic example of lot of demand and no supply. Guess what happens to the price? High...

With time people will have more vouchers so the supply side will increase. If the demand stays flat, that will drop the price. That is the counter hypothesis.

I do not have a clue what will happen, I am ready whatever comes my way.

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I have it. As well as the other with backfire "pelacor deceiver". I really like low-mana cards.

Yes, I considered this when making the purchase, but I also figure that in the early days, supply will be low-ish, so I can sell what I get in and close the gap. What would be awesome, is if HIVE crashed too! :D

While the volume I bought is "significant" by the time it all shakes out, since it isn't that large, the difference won't matter too much. So far, I might have been the only one who has taken this route so early - so it will be interesting to see if I got it right - for once. :)

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Yes, Pelacor Deceiver and Naga Assasin can both be used together at the Dragon-Death selection :)

I say there is nothing wrong with your hypothesis, but mind you I always say that :) I say 'yes' to all hypothesis until proven wrong.

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I say 'yes' to all hypothesis until proven wrong.

:D

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after i realize weeks ago i dont will be able to buy 1000 packs, i change my plan to buy later and make brrrr :)

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Sheesh! Too much gamification for a game. I think I am too old and poor for all that shit!! Hahahaha

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I think I am too old and poor for all that shit!!

Stubborn and unwilling perhaps ;)

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Yeah, perhaps! But that does not take away the old and the poor of me yet. LoL

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Interestingly, there are a lot of Vene players, many of them have been able to get the usage of powerful decks once they have proven their gameplay. So... maybe it is just the "old" part that is the issue :D

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So... maybe it is just the "old" part that is the issue :D

Elementary My Dear Watson!

Or how the boy of the eight (el chavo del 8) would say:

Eso, eso, eso. I am too old for that shit! ;D

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Are you buying vouchers, selling SPS, selling vouchers, buying with DEC, Credits or SPS...

Currently buying some DEC. I'm a few vouchers short each day to get what we want so going down this path.

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Why buying DEC?

I originally thought I'd get 1000 packs.... Stupid voucher system.... :D

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Why buy DEC? so you get more SPS = more vouchers

A really slow kinda backwards way though, each 100k DEC gives about 13 SPS daily at present :)

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Ah okay. Are you pooling it with SPS or HIVE also?

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(Edited)

ahh maybe. haven't really decided. mainly pooling on the ETH /DEC one presently

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I have been doing the TribalDex thing for some extra SPS, as I have very few (relative) assets to collect points.

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