It's the end of SPS as we know it

It's the end of an era.

After a year of an initial big up and then lots of down with the entire market, the Splinterlands SPS airdrop has officially drawn to a close. leaving a taste in the mouth for more - but all good things must come to an end. And for me, the final tally sits at 409K SPS staked in-game.

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Though, that definitely hasn't all come through the drop, as I have been buying what I can from the markets when I can and just today, added another 40K odd to push it over the next hundred kilo mark...

500K sounds much nicer though!

Yet, it is unlikely to get there now, even though it is going to keep creeping up as the staked SPS earns more SPS with the current APR including the value of the vouchers being around 35%. So "technically" it is possible that I could come close to earning the 90K needed in the next 8 months or so, if selling all of the vouchers for SPS at the current price and SPS staying at the current price too. However, I don't expect it to do that, because Rift Watchers is being released.

Rift watchers is like Weight Watchers, but instead of calorie controlled meals delivered to the door, it is packs of blockchain controlled playing cards.

And, this should "trim the fat" of the supply of vouchers and plenty of SPS in the process, as the packs are going to likely have a presale component with a "Doctor Blight-esque" Promo card on offer using vouchers and, each pack will cost the equivalent of $5 worth of SPS.

With "only" 3 million packs on offer and there being airdropped summoners, I imagine they aren't going to be sticking around for long, as if you remember, the first 3 million Chaos Legion packs sold through in a few hours.

At current SPS price, each Riftwatcher pack will soak up around 92 SPS, meaning that if nothing happens with price, it will take 278 million SPS out of the supply - which is almost exactly one full third of the current SPS supply.

This means that someone would have to fork out 92,000 SPS for the privilege of 1000 packs, which is 5000 cards. However, this is a very large set too, with 43 different cards available.

Breakdown of the cards included in the Rift Watcher set
Total # of Cards: 43
#of Commons: 12
#of Rares: 12
#of Epics: 12 (6 Airdropped Summoners | 6 Monsters)
#of Legendaries: 6
#of Promos: 1

Normally regulars (using CL as the model) take:
Commons take 400 cards to max = 4800 BCX total
Rares take 115 to max = 1 380 BCX total
Epics take 46 = 552 BCX total
Legendaries = 66

So, not including the promo card, that is 6798 cards to have a full set of regulars, meaning that under perfect drop conditions, the bare minimum number of packs needed for a max deck is 1360 packs -but the chances of getting all cards needed and no extras is, pretty much impossible. This also means that under perfect drop conditions, a total of only 2,200 full decks can be built for Rift Watchers. And still under that perfect scenario of the drop, it is almost 7000 dollars worth of SPS, no matter what the value of SPS is.

The other wrinkle I didn't calculate in there is that 6 of those Epics are the summoners, and they are going to be airdropped based on some mechanism, but if it is like what it is now, they are going to be in very short supply.

Is that good, or bad?

Obviously, for those who are able to invest a lot, they are going to have some very scarce cards in their possession, but hopefully whatever the airdrop factors are, they factor in something like SPS staked, not just RW card packs purchased, to reward hodlers.

And speaking of Rift Watcher Summoners:

Isn't it fantastic to see @crimsonclad get her own card?! And it is perfect!

Fire and Metal! 🤘

It has been a few years since I have seen her, but hey, I dig the beard.

(Note: I have no idea who the card is based on and Crim knows I love her.)

But, while 3 million packs seems a lot, especially chasing Chaos Legion which is still in print and has almost 6 million cards remaining, I do expect them to go fast. And, if what @yabapmatt was saying about the future of SPS is anything to go by, a lot of people aren't going to want to lessen their holdings significantly to buy RW packs, so they may look to the exchanges instead. Even if SPS doubles to 10 cents before the sale though, it is still going to soak up 150,000,000 SPS and at 20 cents, it will be 75,000,000.

However, the higher the price goes, the cheaper it gets in relative SPS terms and this favors the early investors and the dip buyers, so the faster it sells. Even at 20 cents, 1000 packs will cost 25,000 SPS or, 5000 dollars, and that is nowhere near enough for a full deck.

It is certainly going to be an interesting release and it is going to change the game meta lot, especially in the higher leagues, as maxes of these cards are not necessarily going to be all that common, spreading out the chances of meeting them in battle and which configurations are met, highly variable. This throws a bit of a spanner in the works for the current crop of bots for sure, but also for the human players, as more variables means a higher degree of dynamic possibilities to choose from and, play against.

September release date,

Bring it on.

Whatever happens, it looks like the game is going to enter a new phase of growth that is going to change the Splinterlands ecosystem again, as this will all lead into the Validator Nodes for governance and then, the release of Land to bring in new capabilities for asset holders, as well as ways for owners to affect the game mechanics themselves.

Are you looking forward to it?

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]



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59 comments
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Some nice updates and I think that's what really sets Splinterlands apart from many other games. The amount of communication they do with everyone and also constant development now. Think these next two quarters will have a lot going on.

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I think in general, it is pretty cool how much content gets created around this and, it is not just streaming content either, there is a lot of long-form stuff, fan art etc - all pushed across a range of interfaces, all pretty much on Hive :)

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Great Post!

!1UP

You can earn passive income by delegation of tribe tokens to "The Cartel"!


Click the banner to join "The Cartel" Discord server to know more!

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Crimson will be at least as op as Zaku, I should get some of her.

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Everyone wants a piece :)

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Sorry, you can't have any of her, you obviously happily married.

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and-now-im-dead-smile.gif

I think it's a testament to our bizarre long distance forever friendship that you pulled this 😂 I can't keep up with all the cool new art that's been released, so this is a fun/horrible surprise and I'm rolling with the nonsense you've started- I will now claim this is me.

For the record, my COVID beard will need a bit of rogaine for me to be able to braid it in time for HiveFest and/or Splinterfest.

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I won't even learn that card's name now. She'll be forever Crim.
I was pretty surprised to see 43 cards in RW. Unless SPS really moons, I'll probably just buy individual cards off the market.

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She'll be forever Crim.

Perfect. This is what I am hoping will catch on globally.

Unless SPS really moons, I'll probably just buy individual cards off the market.

I was thinking the same. I don't think I will be able to do a presale at these prices.

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Particularly committing to Wild; at some point more cards becomes a distraction.

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Is there any point playing both?

I just scraped into Wild C2, but struggling to do the same for Modern. Should I just focus?

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It's the same ECR, so I'm just focusing on Wild. Playing in modern would be excruciating.

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I'm glad I'm just going to embrace be-bearded muscle-me, because it seems like I don't get a choice on the momentum 😂

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Yeah, I can't wait to see where this game lands in a few years...I just hope all the tweaks won't shake off the userbase (or more importantly, future money to be invested in the platform)

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I think the core userbase is pretty strong, but all of the dips will shake a couple out to distribute the assets further. Might be a good thing :)

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I don't know... you are playing and pondering in leagues way out of my reach... but it is fun to be along for the ride.

I hope things are well in Finland!

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What is good about leagues, is that we can learn to play in our own, the best we can :)

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Remember to keep some SPS liquid. Staking is ok too, 1 week, but keep that in mind. Otherwise likely you will be buying definitely at higher prices than now.

2.8M staked here. Wanted a bit more.. will see!

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I have it all staked, but also in a constant powerdown - so it is always less than seven days away - however, I assume there will be some announcement at least a week before it is needed :)

2.8 now - wow! :D
0.3% of the entire supply :)

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Also increased the card collection. Will see what happens

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I don't follow the splinterlands post very often, I have been playing some, and I was wondering what Merits are good for and what they do. Do you know or is there an easy place to find out about them?

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Hey. Merits are used to buy Gladius Cases which contain cards that can only be used in Guild brawls. You can't transfer the merits, the cases, or the cards, and so Merits are only really useful if you are a member of a guild.

There's probably more use cases for them, but that's what I spend all mine on :)

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So for a non guild player they are basically useless? Guess I'll just keep holding them until if I decide to join a guild. Thanks for the info.

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So for a non guild player they are basically useless?

It seems so, but this could change in the future. Hold is the only option :)

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They can be burned for DEC ;) gladiator cards, not the merits

If you are desperate.

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Not really desperate, I just did not know what they were. I'll hold them in case one day I join a guild. thank you.

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keeping them stashed is fine, that is what I am doing.

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I got some merits too... But I don't play Brawls.

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I guess we just hold and wait for things to change.

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Looks like I will need to hold off staking my liquid SPS for this new Edition! I feel that this edition will not last very long especially if they have a promo with the presale!

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It only takes a week to unstake :)

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Damn it that sucks, that means I won't be buying 200 packs like I hoped. I want to get 200 packs and it would be sweet if I could but I am willing to liquidate 100% of my alt's SPS to do it and that's only sitting at a whopping 2k lol. Gooooo up price of SPS! I'm definitely going to get at least 100 of the packs. I've got a good amount of vouchers coming in per day. One of the things I'm hoping for in this stuff is that the price of vouchers will spike and I can sell a bunch for a decent profit but it kinda sounds like it's going to get sucked up in one fell swoop. 3 million packs is kind of a lot but it's really not!

Decisions.. decisions! :D

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The SPS price will increase (I am pretty sure) but that also means they will sell much faster :)

Yeah, I didn't mention vouchers much, but if they spike a bit, it can mean buying a bit more SPS too!

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Sure. Despite the fact that I could not get into such a massive position, I did try and secured a few k of SPS while spending a bit for packs and cards, too. It was quite a stretch reaching Gold League requirements of Collection Power.

I received more promo cards while I had 10 % to 30 % chance or something than when I moved above the 50 % mark. They stopped coming before Spirit Hoarder. Mentioning that dude because I really liked the card and spent a bit on buying a couple off the market.

This is my game. A couple of this here, a couple of that there...

In terms of USF, DEC and SPS made quite the dive, afterwards but in terms of relative Card-purchasing power, they stayed close to the same. A matter of time and patience now to see if we hit another wave of awesomeness.

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Spirit hoarder is a bit of a street sleeper that many people underrvalue!

This is my game. A couple of this here, a couple of that there...

When it comes to cards, I have made a lot of mistakes in my approach - as I haven't even tried to fill holes with any kind of systematic approach, it is all just randomness...

In terms of USF, DEC and SPS made quite the dive, afterwards but in terms of relative Card-purchasing power, they stayed close to the same.

This is something many people have missed. Unless you need money IRL from it, all is well :)

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I'm sure I'm not the only person you've neurohacked into deciding that regardless of what the canon is, that card is now crimsonclad.

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I think i'll be spending all the DEC/SPS I had pooled on this new edition, might need a week's HIVE PD also :)

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Lots to think about with this one!

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I sold most of my fire deck. In exchange I was able yo level up OBSIDIAN and THADDIUS BROOD to level 4. I guess time will tell if I was right or wrong...

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My fire set is very weak - I have tried to add to it... but I don't see the point! :D

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Maybe it is time to learn the art of playing this game because I don’t think I want to miss out on all these goodies 🥴

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So we will ever have the SPS going up to their previous value? I hope so!

Posted using 1UP - Play2Earn & NFTs

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Not sure if it will get to a dollar, but there might be some spikes into the double digits at least :)

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(Edited)

hey taraz, where did you get this info?

Breakdown of the cards included in the Rift Watcher set
Total # of Cards: 43
#of Commons: 12
#of Rares: 12
#of Epics: 12 (6 Airdropped Summoners | 6 Monsters)
#of Legendaries: 6
#of Promos: 1

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Interesting analysis of the packs!!

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I have a feeling they are going to go very fast.

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