# Managing Splinterlands Expectations

Yesterday, I was asked what the APR was on staked SPS, because the APR percentage is split between Vouchers and SPS, making it difficult to ascertain. Because I have close to 500K staked, the calculation is a bit easier, though I actually have 527K staked. This will never be completely accurate, other than as a snapshot of a point in time, as it will fluctuate based on a number of factors, mostly by how much other people have staked for SPS earnings too. This stake has increased since the end of the airdrop as people pulled out of pools and into the in-game stake, which has driven down the APR by about 15% I think.

It had been around two hours since I had staked, so I simply took the current voucher and SPS number and multiplied it by twelve to guestimate the 24-hour return, which I estimated at 22 vouchers and 276 SPS.

Now that it is very close to the full-day returns, the actual numbers currently are:

The current APR is 29.82%.

The current value of Vouchers is \$0.44
The current value of SPS is \$0.074

With 527K staked and the value of SPS being \$0.074, the return should be around 150,000 SPS worth a year, split between SPS and vouchers, all things remaining equal, which they won't of course, but that is the information we have.

At the day marker in about 15 minutes, I will have 23.4 vouchers a day and around 288 SPS.

Voucher value: ~\$10.25
SPS value ~\$21.30

At least currently, this gives a nice ratio split of value around 1:2 in value terms, meaning that 1/3rd of the APR is coming in through vouchers, 2/3rds in SPS. If we extrapolate that out for the next year, it will be 3,741 in vouchers and \$7,778 in SPS, for a total of \$11,519 and if you remember from the 150K worth of SPS earned in stake yield, that has a value of \$11,100 - so pretty close.

However, this extrapolation is quite irrelevant, as while the snapshot view of the last 24 hours might be relatively accurate, every day it is going to get less so, as more vouchers and SPS are pushed into the supply, staked, spent, used, lost, whatever - with every fractional change affecting the entire economics of every factor connected to it.

Obviously for me, I see these Splinterlands assets as investments into various Splinterlands activities as well as from a financial investment front. My expectation is that both of these assets are going to increase, but not necessarily increase at the same rate, or potentially, not even at the same time, though timing is likely far more correlated due to how they are used.

And, the value especially for vouchers in this case is affected by the activity path, as for example, if buying a node license, those vouchers can be used to gain a discount worth \$3 each, which means that rather than \$10 worth, they would be worth \$69 - however, that also requires spending the SPS for the other half to get the license also.

However, I do expect that once Rift Watchers comes closer to release, the value of both of these are going to increase and I am guessing, it is already happening as people collect in anticipation. For example, the one-hour chart from Huobi (a new market) shows a steady increase from about 0.068 to 0.073, with a decent volume of 600K a day, which is in a market only open for three days so far.

If that trend line continues trajectory over the next 6 weeks, there would be a value of around \$0.14 on SPS, doubling from the start point. This puts a lot more pressure on license sales and also the demand on Rift Watcher packs, which will likely need vouchers. So, more demand on vouchers too, coming from both directions where on one side it will be worth \$3 for licenses and on the other, whatever the presale number demands. This makes it quite interesting, as the presale is unlikely to have vouchers priced at \$3, and is more likely going to be something like a guarantee of purchase or something, based on an arbitrary voucher number. As there is a promo card on offer for the presale (soft announced), people will have to speculate on which is worth more to them, the card or, selling the SPS into the market demand.

Either way, in the short-term of the next couple months, the outlook seems quite bright for both SPS and vouchers and once the announcements really start to roll, I expect some FOMO to kick in and rather than a steady climb, there will be some more hockeysticking instead, which as normal, will wreak havoc with the marketplaces and dynamics, as prices swirl all over the place and people are unsure what to do. Sell, buy, spend, hold?

And, it is because of this last uncertainty of action that I have tried to move relatively early into these assets, because I know that I suffer far more than I did earlier, from indecision, as my ability to visualize the greater ecosystem and quickly assess what is a satisfactory course of action has been heavily impaired. For now, I can "sit tight" and "relax" (nervously watching) as the Splinterlands Team develop along their path, people make their plays and the markets do their thing in response.

I can't control the market, I can just affect my position in it.

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

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I find myself struggling to decide on whether to stake more SPS or put into LP as I feel that news will come any day soon that will require to have a stack ready for something. SplinterFest tickets and Riftwatchers are making hold on to more liquid SPS that I probably should have which has made me also consider another node. The game economy itself is busy enough!

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as I feel that news will come any day soon that will require to have a stack ready for something.

Yeah, I have this issue too. I am hoping they give some time in the announcement so those who have staked will have a chance to unstake a bit!

The game economy itself is busy enough!

Think about people like me who have very little experience with any of this :D :D

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I wonder if I'm doing mistake not getting into Sprinterland yet - can i ask for your suggestion? What would be my approach to involve into Sprinterland - Stake SPT, cards or first build my hp remaining to Blogs only.

I'm really trying to understand dynamics and tokenomics of SPT - Don't want to take wrong step during the time of FOMO.

Tho, played many P2E games but never seen such like Sprinterland their development team is far more better and making it more strong.

Well, hope you won't mind asking this and Happy weekend to you!

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What would be my approach to involve into Sprinterland - Stake SPT, cards or first build my hp remaining to Blogs only.

I wouldn't listen to me - seriously :)
People have their position and reasons, so you have to find yours. If you are interested in P2E games and playing, then investigate what works for you.

As I said in this post, I believe that there is short-term potential in SPS and vouchers. But that is speculation. If you are looking to play, currently it is possible to buy packs of Chaos legion through the game at a discount, by buying DEC externally and using that to buy it in game.

The Splinterlands team is active though and there are plenty of posts around splintertalk and in the Splinterlands community to read and make your opinion upon.

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I've started playing P2E games early 2022 - all of those Games are dust and yea I'm investigating as of now

If you are looking to play, currently it is possible to buy packs of Chaos legion through the game at a discount, by buying DEC externally and using that to buy it in game.

Indeed, I'm looking to play and was needed some directions that you provided me much already

I'll learn more and further research than defiantly going to play - Not for short term but for long.

Thanks mate for giving me some directions! Really appreciate and much love!

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The whole thing is definitely some wild stuff to ponder on! Lots of money on the table, and potential for money to be made all over the place. I'm hoping that we can drive a lot of attention and desire for RW so that I can sell lots of my vouchers! Lol. Everyone's got a lot of vouchers themselves now so I don't know how many I'll actually be able to sell. In the meantime though, I'm staking as much SPS as I can to get that decent APR. Happy with my position for sure but certainly wish it could be more.

As Task just posted about recently, the investors dilemma! Time, attention and money are all in short supply lol

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Lots of money on the table, and potential for money to be made all over the place.

Quite an incredible amount really...

Everyone's got a lot of vouchers themselves now so I don't know how many I'll actually be able to sell.

It depends on what they use them for. I feel that a lot of those with a lot of vouchers, would be interested in nodes if SPS increases. in the remaining of the current tranche, that soaks up almost 950,000 vouchers, regardless of SPS price. That takes a fair chunk out of the market and then, if RW needs a fair amount for the presale, they will also be in on that, so the "open market" might see a lot of volatility.

As Task just posted about recently, the investors dilemma! Time, attention and money are all in short supply lol

Always :)

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If you believe in Splinterlands you have to own (and stake) SPS. 🙌🏻📈
Vouchers is more a cyclical thing depending on upcoming launches but not a long term investment in my view.

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vouchers are definitely not a long hold, but they are a long collect and use/sell :)

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(Edited)

I can't control the market, I can just affect my position in it.

It good to see you make a perfect use or your cards am new with splinter lands am planning of joining too

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Hey, I think you tried to add me as a friend the other day on Discord. I don't know you, so I wouldn't accept :)

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One of the most difficult thing about VC (SL is a VC) is to predict its future and especially the time and path that the VC will take to get there. That is the main reason you are offered this absurd returns on passive income like staking (30%). Try 30% passive income in the real-world!

But there is a catch, and you are well aware of it, but still need reiteration: the catch is that the interest is being paid in 'monopoly money' (pardon my ridicule, you know I am heavily invested and married to monopoly money). So due to this catch, in present time, it can be mentally discounted. But then the question is how much? half? third? So, that is 15%?, 7.5%? now you are talking a bit closer to real world numbers. Those discounted returns are still lucrative, right?

That's the mental math. That's the downside,

But there is upside, which is retirement in under 10 years :)

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(Edited)

he catch is that the interest is being paid in 'monopoly money'

Yes. It isn't much different than an LP with a shitcoin, other than it has more uses and paths than just being sold for something else. If it was only 10%, would that be worth the risk, considering the upside might be 10x?

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Totally worth the risk!

As you said, this token actually have utility

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6 months from now will tell a lot - a year will be completely different again.

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In general, I try not to have expectations in life, because when I do, I am too often sadly disappointed. But when I don't have expectations, I am frequently pleasantly surprised. Yet, we are human and I think we get too emotionally involved and that is the soil that leads to growing expectations.

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Expectations always lead to disappointment in my opinion, so management is necessary. In a case like this, while I "expect" an upward climb in value, I also understand that it could be a complete loss too.

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It's hard to predict what will happen. At the end of the day it's game first for any of the assets to have value.

APR to me is just cherry on top. If the game becomes more and more successful, the underlying assets will appreciate and that's where the bulk of return will come from.

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At the end of the day it's game first for any of the assets to have value.

Long-term at least - in the short-term, most tokens out there just move on hype :D

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(Edited)

Great information all through but I like the way you ended,"I can't control the market,I can just affect my position in it". This in my opinion means that I also have the ability to to whatever I can leaving other factors constant. Thank you for this post about splinterlands.

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It's hard to really balance but I think I will just stake my SPS. While it is nice to leave it in a pool, I think VOUCHER has a higher chance of being worth more when things pop.

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Thanks for doing the math. Interestingly to know the breakdown of APR between SPS and VOUCHERS. I have about 1150 SPS staked currently, so every bit counts. Cheers!

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