Ready to Explode?

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I haven't started my Splinterlands campaign for this season yet, mostly because I screwed up my rentals. About four days ago I cancelled my Wild Deck rentals, however I use Splinterrents to manage it at times and I forgot to deactivate it. So, while things were coming off rent, it was rerenting them in the background and I didn't notice until a day or two later.

Doh!

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But, it has worked out pretty well, as I think it was "too early" for me to play anyway and this season, I am going to go with a new strategy compared to last. Last, I played modern first where I don't need to rent quite as many cards and then moved to wild. The problem was, there wasn't many people (bots) at the top of wild to play, so I was struggling to get anywhere and destroyed my ECR far too fast. This meant that when I moved to wild, I was limited, because dropping below the 50% ECR would incur about a 2.5% drop per match.

This season, I will start with Wild and hopefully move up in the early stages easily enough. But, when I start to struggle, I will move over to the Modern format to play there, if I have the ECR to spare. I used to not care about ECR at all (leading me to be labelled a bot), but I am trying to clean up my gameplay a bit and make it more effective. Most of the time, the high volume of games has nothing to do with me not progressing, and everything to do with me just mindlessly playing while I am doing something else. A little focus and discipline and I think I can do okay.

It might also mean that I am able to complete some challenges and earn a few extra chests, as even if they aren't necessarily worth "that much" in the grand scheme, it is always fun to open them and have that lottery feeling when it starts to shake. I think I have got one GFL in the last year from rewards. This will mean renting cards that I won't be using all the time too, as of course, the Wild early cards can't be used in Modern, so they will stay dormant. However, I also plan on entering into a tournament or two, to break up the gameplay and still let me play, without burning ECR. I am not sure which tournaments yet.

Unit Bias

The other day I said I have "done my dash" on large Splinterlands purchases, which I found out is an Australianism and even a Brit didn't know what I was talking about. What it means is, I am spent, out of energy, need a rest. I had firstly bought another node license and then after saying I wouldn't, moved the DEC I had into more SPS. This left me with nearly 500K.

Buuuuuut.......

Fucking unit bias kicked in and being just under was annoying me, so I bought a bit more to push me over, staking "just enough" to hit all of those pretty zeroes.

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At least for a moment, because just after, I staked a little more and broke them.



So, now I feel I am ready. Rift Watchers are coming and I am hoping to get as many of those as I can, and I assume that SPS is going to increase in value as other people will want to get as many as they can too. Sure, a lot are going to sell on the pre-existing SPS stake, but since 80% of the SPS used will be burnt, this will also increase the value of SPS over time, especially now that the distribution will be a little slower after the end of the airdrop.

There are 3 million Rift Watcher Packs, priced at $5 each worth of SPS, which is 15 million worth of SPS at the current prices. That is, just under a quarter of the total market cap, so just under a quarter of the supply and will chew about 210M tokens, burning about 160 million of those.

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If price doubles from here, that becomes 105 million tokens eaten and 81 million burned, which is still a large 10% burn of the supply emissions so far.

At least for me, as long as there is demand past this, even if I don't get all the RWs I would like, the position is good for Splintershards for the future and I suspect, this won't be the last sale using them. Not only that, there is still the 30% APR on the staked SPS which means that (if steady) the next year would technically bring in another 150K worth of SPS, although this 30% includes the value of vouchers in the percentage, which are going to fluctuate up and down.

Vouchers should go up with RW release as there will be a presale element that should put some demand on them. Also, there will likely be discounts as there are now on packs, where in order to get the bonus packs, vouchers are needed. As I have 3 nodes now, I am earning vouchers daily on them, plus what comes from my stake, so I should have enough for my bonuses and perhaps a few more to sell into the market liquidity, unless something else comes up that makes me want to hold. And if that happens, I won't be the only one holding, pushing vouchers up in value too.

And I suspect, what will drive a voucher supply shock is the rising price of SPS and the dwindling supply of Node Licenses in Tranche 1, where it will take about another 1,000,000 to sell through to the start of Tranche 2. There are plenty of vouchers out there for this, but it is the other side that many are lacking or unwilling to spend, the SPS side. With rising SPS, that changes and people will feel more comfortable using some of their stake on it. Meaning a bit more SPS out of the supply, where a doubled SPS value using vouchers would mean about 20M more for what is left in Tranche 1. Tranche 2, changes this again, but if SPS keeps rising, the increased price of a License decreases in SPS terms, but for those who already have the licenses they are after, they are home and hosed and could even start selling into the demand through secondary market, at a little less than available at the in-game shop.

Taking this position in Splinterlands is a massive gamble for me and might very well end up in tears, but if it does manage to move forward well, it could also be tears of joy, at least from a financial sense. Most of my life has been burdened with economic struggle, some I had no control over and some self-inflicted, but working my way into this potential position is something I don't think I could even dream about throughout my life. And especially after all of the other trials and tribulations of the last decade or two. And what is very cool is, it is all done through communities of people who are often changing their individual lives for the better, together.

Quite Amazing.

There are no guarantees though and there is plenty of opportunity for crash and burn too - but just to have the chance is better than sitting back and accepting fate that there is no way.

The way isn't short journey though.

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]

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34 comments
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Honestly, I'm in sitting just outside of Diamond II and it is brutal... so I think I'll need to sit out a couple of more days before I start to make a run of it. I do think the daily chests are important... I got 55 chests at the end of season, but some days I was collecting 8 daily loot chests, so really the dailies could up being half or more of your overall loot.

Unfortunately I still don't have the cards to play Modern at all... and won't until after the CL sale has completed... so that makes an easy choice where to spend my time.

I hope it does end in tears of joy for you. I've also gambled more on Splinterlands than I probably should have... so I guess we'll have to see. Luckily I do really enjoy the game, so there is that.

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I got 55 chests at the end of season, but some days I was collecting 8 daily loot chests, so really the dailies could up being half or more of your overall loot.

Mine was about the same - nothing that fantastic last season overall, but it is fun!

I thought you bought into CL?

Luckily I do really enjoy the game, so there is that.

If it all fails, we can make the most out of it by playing into our 90s to cost average ;)

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Hahaha, that's the good thing about this whole technology... if Spinterlands Inc decides to fold (which seems incredibly unlikely at this point) there is always the chance someone else comes along and makes a game that uses our digital assets... so we every well might be able to keep playing this fun strategic game for decades to come.

I did buy into CL... but I haven't opened any packs yet.
My current plan is to wait until CL is sold out, then buy the cards I need when everyone is looking to sell off their spares after maxing out their airdrop opening potential... and then wait a year or two to sell the CL packs I have.

The only problem with this plan is that demand for CL might drop off a cliff when Rebellion gets announced.

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(Edited)

Don't you think that the cards that you might want the most will be more expensive once OOP?

The only problem with this plan is that demand for CL might drop off a cliff when Rebellion gets announced.

This is what I am wondering too - since it is soft slated for next year.

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Sorry, is OOP Out of Print?

I mean, maybe, I can't predict the future, and withhold the right to be wrong about everything.

My thought process is... once 100% of CL packs have been sold (currently 36% remaining with 2/3rds opened so far) then a huge portion of the unopened packs will be opened so people can maximise their chances of receiving the 14 CL airdrops (specifically the 6 legendary summoners). I don't know what that portion of remaining unopened packs would be, I'm guessing over 50% but I don't really know.

With a huge amount of packs being opened very quickly after the last CL airdrop is released, I'm assuming people will put all their spares up for sale at the same time, pushing prices down and that's when I'm looking to buy.

It's entirely possible they're get more and more expensive as we get closer to being sold out... but I'm hoping that window directly after sell out is profitable for me. Especially since by that point I've been waiting a year(ish) to get those cards.

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Sorry, is OOP Out of Print?

Yeah, I hear @slobberchops say it all the time :D

I think your thinking is interesting!! And yes, I reckon there will be people looking to get more of these summoners, but I also wonder what happens to the chances, since all of the cards are available at that point, so do they go up or down for getting any individual card?

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Hmmm, the answer to your question might be unknowable.

Grandmaster Rathe has 18,274 available in all 15 million packs (unless I'm reading that wrong). So far, only 10,376+586=10,962 have been allocated/found, meaning there are 7,312 cards still in the unsold AND unopened packs, which is 8,853,000ish packs...

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The reason that it's unknowable is the purchased-but-unopened (3,355k) packs are opened today and 6000 of the 7312 Rathe cards are found, then the chances of finding a Rathe card at the very end are tiny... or, if 6 Rathe cards are found, then your chances of finding one at the very end are huge...

Your chances aren't any better today or in January statistically... but the chances go down with every additional Rathe cards found.

I don't think people care about that too much... if you open a CL pack today then you definitely can't get any of the unreleased outstanding CL airdrop legendary summoners and if you wait until the end then you might find them just like any other card.

The real question for me is... are all these unopened packs waiting on all the CL airdrop summoners to be released and then be opened... or are they intended for resale once the price of packs gets over $4 on the secondary markets? I'm banking on the first option being true while the second option might screw me over (because I won't be able to get the cheap cards I've been waiting for).

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Grandmaster Rathe has 18,274 available in all 15 million packs

Think this is what has already been printed, including the airdrop. What will actually be printed will be unknowable in the coming cards afai understand it.

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total printed is what has been distributed - total cards is what there are after combines, as they can't be broken apart again. It is like in the market, buying a max is 1 card, no matter how many cards were combined to make it.

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Simash has about 14000 out, after combines there are 7000, but, 93% of the supply is still to come.

I am not sure how it works, but for example, if there is 1 legendary in every 100 packs (just to make it easy), there will be 10 in 1000 packs, not 10 of each legendary. So, if there are 20 legendary cards, it would take 2000 packs to get 1 of each (probabilistically). If there are 40 legendaries, only half will be printed in that 2000, so if buying 2000 (in this case) the chances of getting any particular legendary, goes down, the more cards there are. This is the same for all the cards I think, so as more are released, the emission of them decreases statistically.

The Promo and Reward cards however, have a set distribution, so we can see how many are left.

We can't know the total number of what is left, because it is going to depend on when people buy their packs. the first 9 million didn't have rathe, but the next 6 million will still have Tarsa, Obsidian, Kelya etc.

I think this means that the last Legendaries are going to be in very short supply.

Har to say how strong the market will be for CL packs, but, with land coming, it is going to soak up a massive amount of cards, making all cards more scarce.

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Aw man, I'm a total duffer!
You're totally right... I completely forgot about the BCX and combining of cards. Duh!

Just to clarify, as far as I understand it, but it doesn't matter when people buy their packs, but it does matter when they open them... so of the first 9 million packs bought, 6,000k were opened before Rathe was available... but the unopened 3,355k still could have a Rathe in them... but yes, your point still absolutely stands.

I imagine there is a flat number of each card in the total CL edition. 15M x 5 = 75M cards in total... 103 different card variations (seems like an odd number, but 98 current CL cards plus the 5 remaining airdrop cards) and maybe the flat total BCX number of each legendary card is 50,000 or something.

If every CL legendary (summoner or not) has 50,000 BCX, and 13M packs have been opened before the last CL summoner is released, I guess you chances of getting the last airdrop summoner in one of the last million packs is pretty good... but that's assuming the BCX for all CL legendries are the same, and I have no idea if that's the case or not.

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Aw man, I'm a total duffer!

I do it all the time with things. So many "moving parts" that I can't visualize them all together, or remember to include them in my calculations and evaluations - plus, there is plenty of ambiguity.

What I think though is, not every card has a set amount of BCX to be printed, which explains the variations in Untamed editions:

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10% less Kitties than Llamas, 20% less than Chanseus. I think it comes down to the "randomness" of the draw, but perhaps @yabapmatt is the authority on the mechanics for this one ;D

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Yeah, I noticed that too... but I had wondered if that was because not all packs have been opened yet. I tried to find if there was any data on how many unopened Untamed packs there were but didn't have any luck.

I was thinking that because all (except one) the promo cards that are OOP have round numbers that that's probably true of all other cards too... but we'll never know because it's unlikely any edition will have 100% of packs getting opened.

But yeah, I wouldn't be surprised either way... although if it is a flat number, you could probably start to work out the probability of these cards in remaining packs.

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(Edited)

priced at $5

Damn that is a lot. I don't think that I will be buying many. I have 5,669.57 SPS... so maybe I will buy a few but most likely I will just buy more chaos packs. I already used all my DEC to buy more chaos. I went from 150 packs to 222 but I still want more.

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it is a lot, so I am unsure how many I will end up getting. It depends on the price of SPS I guess :)

Supposedly, CL is still expected to sell out by the end of year.

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I am getting pennies daily in silver. Probably not worth the time... It is not fun losing over and over either.

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What do you think you are missing for more wins?

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Budget to finishing buying the missing cards lol.

Mostly from pre-Chaos Legion.

I want to get more HP first.

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yes I think the same, the price of ps goes up in the month of release Rift Packs

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Next month, right?

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I think they still haven't said a date for when they will be released.

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I think they said end of September in one of the town halls.

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I think they still haven't said a date for when they will be released.

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If you're going to achieve life changing money, you've gotta put yourself in a position to make it happen.

You're going for it :)

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I definitely feel like I am taking a swing for the boundary.

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Most of my life has been burdened with economic struggle...

Mine was the same, however I could turn the tables on and reborn from my ashes. If it weren't for my stubborn and fighter charecter, the situation would have totally been differen, particularly in economic.

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I admire how some people are able to overcome weaknesses - at least the ones I seem unable to myself :)

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The current season is brutal. I went up to gold rank only to get demolished in my fights. I dropped out of the gold rank and I have been stuck in Silver since then.

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Wild or Modern? I am getting smashed when I play modern! :D

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Modern and it's tough. I am wondering if Wild will be better but I have yet to test it

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Three licenses. I'm getting left behind.
So many top priorities right now. The newly announced Jacek the Conqueror will change some stuff. I can see him helping a card like Lir, and hurting a lot of these really tanky Taunt builds.
On the surface, he seems OP, but then one key to winning is to focus your firepower. You can't do that with Jacek, which makes him more of a Long distance bombardment of the general enemy position before engaging sort of strategy.
If that initial volley doesn't wipe out a card or two, and the retaliation is focused, perhaps on a team now wounded from magic reflect and ranged reflect, maybe even amplified...
Getting 6 cards 90% dead does nothing to limit their attack.

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I can see him helping a card like Lir, and hurting a lot of these really tanky Taunt builds

Yes - unfortunately! :D However, the more cards, the more complex and, the more variation in each round, since the player is an unknown. It isn't only the scattershot that brings in more variation. However, it is going to make Fire very powerful... Mine is weak as.

but then one key to winning is to focus your firepower. You can't do that with Jacek

But, a couple magic scatters takes a heavy toll, so then focusing some melee will be possible and it will be hard to beat. These brings reflect back into play too though, increasing the likes of Lir as you said or, Owster, who has fallen by the wayside a bit, after being so important after the Dice release.

Interesting card for sure!

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I have sold my SPS for Waka Spritiblade and Node License. I do think I have made good decisions with these. It is still a sad thing to sell SPS at such low prices. I'm wishing for a good price pump when Riftwatchers release.
!PIZZA

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