Separating The Wheat from the Chaff
It's greeeeen!!
FOMO!
Nevermind.... Back to red.
Best not to care what the markets are doing and keep converting from shitcoin fiats into cryptos and cross fingers it all works out. Sure, if it doesn't, we are fucked - but if we stay in fiat we are fucked anyway. At least going into crypto is an opt-in fucking, rather than a forced economic rape by authorities, spread out over a lifetime.
What is "green" at the moment is the Splinterlands rental market, where it seems players are coming to terms with the new challenges they face with the changes in rewards and the two day rental minimum. As I wrote about yesterday, it does indeed seem that players are chasing the chests from the rewards and renting cards they need for their daily challenges, but are then "stuck" with them for an additional 24 hours, even if they don't help complete the challenge quests.
This means that on "day one" they have what they need, but on "day two" they have underutilized cards with what they need being different to some degree. But, on "day three" there are new quests in the mix, so they may have to rerent the cards from day one, or extend from day two, but with a two day minimum, they have to extend by two days, if there is less than 24 hours left on the rental.
The outcome is that at any one point in time (past day one) all accounts renting to optimize for their quests are going to have more cards than they need, which soaks up a massive amount of cards from the market, making ownership even more important.
This doesn't even go into the wrinkle of choosing to play both Wild and Modern formats.
Interestingly though, there are quite a lot of sales on cards at the moment, with some older players clearing out their inventories at what would be considered "bargain" prices, in comparison to recent past values. Of course, these prices are far higher than the original cost they obtained them for. I have been trying to flesh out my deck a bit with some older cards available.
As someone who has to rent for Champions league, it is frustrating to have to pay large amounts for single cards, but what is worse, is when there are no cards available on the market to rent at all. With so many holes in my deck to play Champion leagues, I have to be careful what I supplement with. @Azircon was surprised the other day that I don't rent a Zaku at all. Not having cards means that I have to play more rounds also, as there are some rule sets that I just can't compete with, and sometimes, those losses are very costly, killing the chances of win streaks and pushing me down the ranks fast.
Own or go Home?
Well, not really, but obviously the more one has to rent. the less lucrative the play2 earn model becomes. Not only that, without ownership, while there is far less risk in the investment, it also means that there is little future upside. Also, what happens if in the future the cards needed to play are no longer available, because extra cards ended up being staked to LAND? This is one of my fears as I need about 35 cards to play in Champions and often, there are several that are unavailable to rent, and that is before the new economic changes of land has been introduced.
However, this also means that the value of these cards goes up, but it also raises the prominence of more readily available as replacements. And, that means that their value goes up too, so all those CL cards that people are selling for scraps now, could actually be worth something in the future - after all, it has happened with every set release so far, why wouldn't it with Chaos Legion?
Famous last words.
Sure, the past is the best indicator of the future but, we are largely in unchartered territory when it comes to what is happening now. Not just in Splinterlands, but the economy as a whole. And at anytime, things can go insane. Even if only 100K new real players decided to play Splinterlands, the impact on the economics is absolutely immense.
Just think, to build a full deck of Chaos Legion playing cards is around 8400 cards, which is around 1670 opened packs, assuming that all of them are the perfect cards to complete the set - which they will not be. The cost of a full CL deck (about 100 different cards) without any golds is $2900 dollars on the open market. However, if 5,000 new players wanted to rent full decks, it would require a total of 42 million cards - that is over half of the contents of all the packs sold and of course, something like Doctor Blight has 20500 printed - so just enough for 5000 maxed versions and most players now, aren't going to give up theirs.
Of course, all of the demand isn't going to be on getting full decks, but my point is - these kinds of numbers are not unlikely, given the change in the gaming economies and culture toward web3. And, with that kind of demand, the value of the entire Splinterlands economy increase heavily.
Yep - all of this is speculation, but that is what investing is - especially investing into new industry and emerging trends. We are trying to predict what is going to happen in the future and it is very possible, we are wrong.
But if we aren't?
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
I’ve been seeing this in Silver too. I’ll often rent a level 4 Brighton Bloom to have when the Earthquake rule set hits. But recently level 4 and 3 Blooms were not available for rent and I had to settle for a 2.
And it can have a dramatic effect on the win/loss - I hate losing a streak (they are rare for me) because I just don't have the cards to play.
Don’t forget that there will be 150k land plots that we need some sort of combination of Summoners and Monsters to also produce! There is surely not enough supply for the potential demand that could be created in the ecosystem.
I did mention!! :D
But yes, I have no idea what that combination might be, but I assume it requires CP as an indicator of card quality, perhaps release version too - so that means, the older cards are more likely to get staked to Land, with the owners that play keeping one set available to play with.
I stick shock myself by how utterly uninterested I am about Splinterlands
Lols. You aren't the only one. But, I like the economy side of the affair a lot. Same thing on Hive. :)
It is definitely easier with Zaku, especially early season, which when you play, I know you struggle, also useful in late, when people are not expecting you to play Zaku. During this restructuring, it will be good idea to pick one up.
Rentals will soon become a tight market, which will be good for you in one way, but that also means at the end of season it will unlikely you will be able to rent primo max cards. I just checked, I can't rent a max Kitty right now and it is no way near end-of-season.
I would like a Zaku, especially for some sets, but you know - I set some limits somewhere! :D
Quite a few cards are missing from the market and some that used to be idle are going for a lot more. My max Epona is renting out at between 900 and 1200 - it used to struggle to have any takers.
no worries, I am sure you will have time to pick up a zaku at a good price. Your were correct earlier, there is a bot-farm selling cards. Mostly Chaos commons
More will come...
blueeyes is also offloading - 1800 for a LLama seems a bargain!
thanks! :)
Its no more
600 less than I paid a couple days ago! :D
looks like we have to continuously buy them! :)
There is a major shift in ownership happening at splinterlands
I wish I had more money :)
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STOPSounds like it's a good problem to have.
The mechanics can always be changed and modified.
I see that rentals should be solid contracts.
Whether, you rent for an hour,or longer, there should be variables both parties can have. The contract needs to be agreed to.
An early end to a contract should also be agreed to. It can also be an option.
I like renting for CP to reach a higher league. So, I want guaranteed longer term (at least to end of Season). I hate it when a rental is cancelled just hours before the Season ends.
It potentially jeopardises my League level.
I equally hate cancelling a rental out because I need the CP.
A Focus focused person only wants a 24 hour rental windows.
A Champion League player might want a set of higher level cards.
A renter might want to only rent out for 7 days in the middle of a Season.
I guess my point is more variability, options & different kinds of Rental contracts.
To ease limited card supply, we need more packs to be purchased.
Maybe the demand for Rent & Marketplace will see a surge in pack sales.
DEC being sold at a discount to the Splinterlands honoured value, means packs are cheaper, just through arbitrage.
The release of RIFT will also add more cards. How many sell? With a Bear mauled SPS, it will reveal how the market is.
As an old Italian man said to me many years ago;
"Everything works out in the end - one way, or another."
This is why I think it is better to take a "average" approach - doing a bit of everything. Some people seem to maximize the current conditions, then when things change, are stuck in a loss.
This is true. Perhaps with a small fee.
This is why the end of seasons used to be so lucrative for renters - as the last 24 hours meant having the CP for long enough.
I think the end of the drop will see a spike in pack sales, but will they be opened? Riftwatchers is also coming and I assume they will be opened, as there aren't many packs. I think Rift will sell very fast.
In the end, it is what it is. :)
While others are enjoying p2e.. I, on the other hand, regretted getting into it half year ago and just lose my investments..I guess, if you're not really a true player, you won't succeed in the metaverse 🤣..
It depends when you get in - but it also depends, when you get out.
And that's my fault, i don't know when to get out..still a noob as usual lol
This is super annoying. I feel lucky if I get to rent a dragon summoner for entire season.
the rental bots will make it more difficult too, as they will look for a higher price.
We have already been fucked by staying in fiats during hyperinflation period all over the world. However, I think that cryptos also raped economically by the authorities in this period, therefore currents developments have shown that the cryptos have not yet seperated from the current economic models and the FOMO has not yet been taken down.
Absolutely. Many don't understand that they are doing it in crypto too.
All the interest there is in splinterland... I need to check it out. All I know so far is the info from the articles you write.
If you aren't into gaming, it might not be so much fun :)
Well I like that it seems to have gotten to MtG levels of srs bsns. Perhaps the numbers will come later? XD
I hope the numbers go up from here at least! :D
If we are wrong, then🥴….
Then, we are wrong. Life goes on as it is in the "real world" of economic slavery :)
Phew….
I am using Yodin Zaku in Silver and it made playing Fire Focus so easy in the past. With the latest change, it's even better because every win clocks points.
I wish I had a Zaku, but I have put a lot into cards lately and have nothing left - 2K for a Yodin.
I don't have one too, but I rent it almost on a permanent basis. ;)