Crypto Analysis | SPS: Flywheel Activated!

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SPS is still deflationary!

Just 2 weeks ago I posted about SPS turning deflationary, but I feel that this message hasn't really caught on yet. It's big news imo, as we have always had a huge inflation (about 600k-1M+ a day!). This is the effect from the infamous flywheel that has now been active for a couple of weeks. While the burn rate has decreased a bit in the last weeks, the average burn rate still outpaces the high inflation!

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In the 52 days of this chart around 35M SPS has been burned. That equals to around 670k SPS being burned per day! The inflation is roughly the same with around 650k (I believe). But overall this means that there has been no inflation in the last 2 months! Alone today, around 2M has been burned since the company was running low on DEC.

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It seems that Splinterlands wants to keep around 300M DEC in their wallets. We can also see that almost 20% of DEC has been staked on LAND. This is a very slow development, but it adds to the flywheel effect.@yabapmatt also hinted at many more DEC sinks in the near future with LAND 2.0. So far it is working really well overall!

TA

Price is still well above the $5 target for 2025. That ofc doesn't say too much since it is still a long time, but it is also the 9th green weekly candle! The chart is looking quite good and I only see a bigger resistance in the 4.5 cents area (red line). We could therefore have a smaller consolidation over the next few months and wiggle around between 4.5 and 2.8 cents.

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After that I wold expect a continuation of the upward movement. I suspect price action will also heavily depend on the amount that is being burned (at least psychologically) and also the products that can get released in the next months. Those will probably include bigger ones like SOULKEEP as well as smaller quality of life improvements or battles 2.0.

 


As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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7 comments
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Great to see the flywheel working! Target $5? Seems very high

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At $5 it would be around 10B MC which is actually not too high compared to e.g. axie which was 100B+

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