Everything in this post is my opinion and not to be taken as financial advice

Rebellion packs

Rebellion packs are the latest edition packs added to Splinterlands with a maximum supply of 10 million packs at 5000 DEC a pack as the base price.
Rebellion set introduces 96 new cards to the game and 5 new abilities. Also rebellion brings 3 new game mechanics which are: Dual element summoners, Ability choice summoners, Target options before the match.

While rebellion packs are priced at 5000 DEC per pack, there is a 1000 DEC discount per pack if you use up 5 vouchers. Also starting from at least 100 pack buys with 1 transaction, vouchers can be used to get bonus packs.

Very soon the new airdrop feature "Conflicts" will go live, where rebellion packs will be giving 150 points per hour for each pack. You can read about conflicts in my Are you ready for Rebellion conflicts ? post.

I will be using information provided by @peakmonsters and @splcards websites, thank you for the awesome services you provide.

Packs in Splinterlands

In Splinterlands there are 4 different rarities of cards possible to obtain (Common, Rare, Epic & Legendary) with every rarity having different odds of getting. There are also 2 foils (Regular & Gold) with gold foils being significantly rarer to get.
Packs in Splinterlands contain 5 cards with at least 1 card being Rare or better always.

• Potions

Before I move further, you need to know about potions. In my opinion no packs should be opened without potions as they double your chances for Legendaries and Gold foils.
Potions can be bought in the "Shop" page under "Potions" and there are 2 kinds of potions available, you will want both of them for your packs all the time.
Potions cost 40 DEC for Legendary and 50 DEC for Alchemy, with discounts available if you are part of a guild.
Each pack requires 5 of each potions (1 potion per 1 card).

In this post I will always assume that 5 of each potions are used for packs

Rebellion pack odds

The odds of different rarities of cards are calculated for each card generated, not for the whole pack. So since there are 5 cards in every pack, then for example you have around 20% chance of getting a gold foil card in any pack.
Odds are for . . .

• Commons 68.8%
• Rares 24.8%
• Epics 4.8%
• Legendaries 1.6%
  Gold foils 4%

Odds taken from the Whitepaper

Rebellion packs have a lot of cards inside, so opening packs to find a specific card you like might not be the best idea always, because there are:

• 29 Commons
• 28 Rares
• 14 Epics
• 14 Legendaries

in the rebellion packs.

Should you open packs ?

Well this depends on what your goals are for the Rebellion set, but overall it's surprisingly not that bad to open packs at current rates.
The splintercards website shows that current estimated value for opening rebellion packs is 4.19$ while you could get them from 3rd party markets for only 3.81$, which means in theory you would profit 0.38$ per pack in the long term (IF the card prices inside stay the same).

But that is if you get your potions for free from daily/season rewards, if you had to also buy potions without any guild discount, then opening packs would be a net negative of -0.11$ for each pack.

If you are looking to level up cards quickly to play with them, I would suggest to not open packs, but buy cards directly from the market. To level up cards by opening packs, it will take a lot of opening because of the huge amount of different cards that are inside this edition.
But if you are just looking to get some random cards and to test your luck, it's not a bad idea to go for Rebellion packs because the ROI (Return of investment) is looking pretty fine. Who knows, maybe you can get a Gold foil legendary.

Should you buy packs ?

Rebellion packs have a total supply of 10 million, but there is also a mechanic implemented where up to 25k packs a day can be burned if none are bought from the in-game store. That is really good for the future of these packs as it will keep supply and demand in check.

There are currently no benefits to buying packs from the in-game store, so always check if you can get packs cheaper from 3rd party (Like Hive-engine or Tribaldex) to save some money. If you are a proud SPS staker and have vouchers stacked up, then 4$ is the price point around what you would want to get your packs at (The lower the better obviously).

The rebellion set overall offers some very strong cards that will most likely be in high demand up until we get the next edition release and even then these cards will stay in Modern for a long time with some crazy unique characteristics.

Keep in mind that for the Conflicts, each unopened pack can also give you 150 points per hour and that could drive up the demand of packs by quite a bit on the 3rd party markets, so getting them now at 0.2$ discount might not be a bad idea.

End thoughts

I have already bought and opened around 25 Rebellion packs myself, these packs are not cheap so it will take some time for me to grow a strong rebellion team. I did get lucky though and pulled a Gold foil Legendary from my small amount of packs, which I'm super stoked about, mostly due to the fact that it will give me 12,500 points per hour for the conflicts.

Rebellion edition is set up very carefully and professionally by the Splinterlands team using their years of experience through multiple pack sales to make this one fair and demanded for everyone.

With the burn mechanism added to keep supply and demand in check, I would not be scared to stock up on these packs for the long term, as I believe they will hold their value nicely and go on an uptrend once they start running out from the shop.

Thanks for reading my post and here are some useful links

Link to Splinterlands (Also my affiliate link): https://splinterlands.com?ref=tsnaks
Splinterlands whitepaper: https://docs.splinterlands.com/
Peakmonsters: https://peakmonsters.com/
Splintercards: https://splintercards.com/index.html
Splinterlands official Rebellion post: https://peakd.com/splinterlands/@splinterlands/the-rebellion-is-coming