Spotting market deals with price prediction model, part 1.

Welcome back! Today I will utillize the price model i developed for my last post: Cross-sectional regression comparison between normal and gold foil reward cards, to try to spot some good deals on the card marketplace. I did update the model including for example Collection power as a metric in determining a cards price. Furthermore I updated the underlying dataset to account for the new reward cards not being out of print yet. Please note that this price model is build to estimate the price per BCX, given the total BCX for the card as well as the amount of cards combined and burned relative to the total amount of BCX, and that the results are thereafter.

The best deal on the market

Let's have a look at some of the results. First off we have Zalran Efreet, both the most undervalued card for normal and gold foil versions according to the model.
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The normal foil version is priced 26 dollars per BCX below what the model predicts, whereas for the gold foil version it's a whopping 1215 dollar per BCX discount compared to the model estimate.

Generally the biggest 'discounts' when comparing the models predictions to the actual prices are for legendary cards. Ancient Lich and Almo Cambio also seems to be underpriced for both normal and foil versions acording to the predictions. Another Fire splinter card stands out though, namely Exploding Rats, which is the most discounted of the new reward cards.

Rares

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The normal foil version is priced 0.4 dollars per bcx below the prediction, with the foil version coming in at 6.3 dollars per bcx discounted. A similar discount level is measured for Twilight Basilisk, Venari Seedsmith and Gargoya Devil for both the normal and gold version, as well as the gold foil version of Venari Bonesmith. Considering the earning potential of especially gold foil cards, this measure may even be understated, as gold foils seem to have an artificially high ceiling for rental prices, especially near the end of a season.

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Commons

As for the biggest discounts for commons according to the model, the reward cards released soonest prior to the CL rewards are best represented. Coming in at around 0.1-0.2 dollars per bcx discount for normal foils and 5+ dollars per bcx for gold foils, these cards are worth keeping an eye on in the following months.

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As you may have noticed I myself am seeing a lot of potential especially in gold foil cards. I am no financial advisor though, so please do your own reasearch before investing. Balance your trades with your goals with the game in mind: do you just want a deck to compete in your league? Then gold foils might not be for you. Do you wanna invest in cards with a premium earning potential, with massive upside potential in terms of price action? Then they might be for you.

That's all I have for now, I hope you enjoyed the speculatory evidence presented in this post. If you did, consider following me, as I am already planning part 2 of this series. If you have any comments or advice, please leave a reply below!

Thanks for coming to my Splintertalk.
/ZenMasterLee