Calculated Value of Chaos Legion Pre-Sale Packs

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When reading in the Splinterlands discord you can spend days upon days reading peoples random opinions that is rarely backed up with anything but gut feeling. In this post I have made an effort to add all factors together and come up with an actual number:

Quick version:

Full version:

hive-13323 splintertalk chaoslegion presale splinterlands packvalue
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TLDW:
how much more than face value do you think CL cards will be worth, on the first day?
I'm figuring about 3x face value, so CL packs would be worth $12, right?

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I explain it all in the video =)

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You did explain that the value of a pack, is just the value of the cards inside- right?
and that ~1M packs will hit the market at the same time, significantly depressing the initial value of those cards, considering the print size of Untamed vs. the initial availability of Chaos Legion and the lowered Burn Values, right?

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"You did explain that the value of a pack, is just the value of the cards inside- right?"

Yeah I took the current market price, or "last sold"

" ~1M packs will hit the market at the same time, significantly depressing the initial value of those cards, considering the print size of Untamed vs. the initial availability of Chaos Legion and the lowered Burn Values, right?"

Considering that the player base is more than 20x compared to the time when untamed was released I think we will see a gradual increase in price. It would suprise me alot if there was any price drop in the card value after release.

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Mmmmmm..... were you around for the Reward changeover from Unlimited to the current, CL Reward cards?

I remember seeing $250 O'Shannus and I sold a Crystal for $5
By the time we got to 1M printed CL Rewards cards.... I was buying O'Shannii for $20 and Crystalsmythes for $0.50

Of course, things have come up since then- sold a few O'Shannii for $60/ea recently and CL Reward Rares are getting up close to $1/ea.

But you should expect to see the same pattern repeat for the CL release- Day 1, excitement and FOMO and 'new toys'! Prices will be high and some will spike.
After a month- there will be ~2M packs of CL in circulation and prices for most of the cards will probably be around what the CL Reward cards are now- $1 for Rares, $0.25 for Commons.
After that.... there will ANOTHER million packs (one, entire Untamed printing) released every month up through, at least, the Riftwatchers Pre-Release, when they may dump the remaining 10M packs directly on the market.

BTW: what is 'current value' or 'Last Sold'? $10? $11? is that what you used? Because I know I just bought 4 packs for ~$10.50

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