Investing €100 a month in Bitcoin
Investing €100/month in Bitcoin over 30 years yields a wide range of potential real outcomes, from losing most of one’s money to massive multi-million-euro gains. The median outcome (~€90k) suggests a decent positive return (about 5–6% real CAGR). However, the probability of underperforming (or even losing money) is significant – e.g. in ~25% of cases the €36k invested ended up below ~€15k in today’s euros. Conversely, the upside tail is enormous – a reflection of Bitcoin’s historical boom cycles. It is important to emphasize the risks: Bitcoin’s path has been anything but smooth. Historically, it has exhibited ~5× higher volatility than equities
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and suffered drawdowns around –80% multiple times
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. Our simulations show that nearly all long-term investors would endure gut-wrenching crashes (half or more of value wiped out), perhaps multiple times, during a 30-year span. Only those who stay the course through such downturns (assuming Bitcoin eventually recovers as it did in past cycles) realize the big gains. This aligns with Bitcoin’s actual record: “patient investors were ultimately rewarded in each case” of major drawdown, but recoveries took years
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. In summary, a 30-year Bitcoin DCA strategy could pay off hugely – but it could also dramatically underperform traditional investments. The outcome distribution is extremely skewed and uncertain. Prospective investors should be prepared for extreme volatility and long periods of drawdown. While no 30-year period in our random draws resulted in complete loss (the ongoing contributions provide some final value), the real purchasing power could end up far below the amount invested in unlucky scenarios. On the flip side, a few scenarios delivered life-changing wealth. This reflects Bitcoin’s high-risk, high-reward profile: success relies on one or more massive BTC bull markets occurring within the investment horizon, and on the investor not capitulating during severe bear markets.
