Economy of Voucher: The Efficient Market
Voucher
Splinterlands pre-sale is finally live. Three days back we have started getting Vouchers, which are Hive Engine Tokens required to purchase Chaos Legion packs during pre-sale. A lot of us were excited for a while to get out hands on these. My interest is also in the overall economy of Splinterlands, which is currently my favorite game and I am heavily invested in it both emotionally and financially. Voucher is obviously a new token, here is the official mechanics of the token
Chaos Legion presale pack they wish to purchase. 33,333.333 VOUCHER tokens will be created daily over the course of the 30 presale period (1M VOUCHER tokens in total) and will be awarded to all players who have SPS tokens staked in their in-game account based on the amount staked as a percentage of the total staked across all players in the game.
To make long story short, there is going to be 1M CL packs for the pre-sale and 1M Vouchers to be airdropped within 30 (37) days of pre-sale. The extra 7 days will be there to complete purchase with all the packs that you have collected during the drop.
As you can see from above that I have staked 310,000 SPS so far, that gives me 75 Vouchers/day. I sold a few already as the price was sky high (relatively speaking). I currently have 32. I am planning to purchase 2000 packs, that will give me 400 additional bonus packs, and it will cost me about 9000 SPS (with the current price of $0.80 /SPS)
I sold about 200 Vouchers at the open market to respond to high prices. Even if I don't do anything further, in theory, I will still have enough vouchers to purchase 2000 packs (at a discounted price of $3). Hopefully that will give me about 50 promo cards, 2 GF promo cards, and 2 Legionaire titles as a bonus. All these items have significant financial value. I am certain that I will be handsomely rewarded on my investment. In addition, if the Voucher price drops, I will purchase additional vouchers (and additional packs using those vouchers), and if Voucher prices rally further, I can potentially sell about 100 more vouchers or stake more SPS to collect more vouchers. That is my general game plan.
The Effcient Market Hypothesis
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) or theory states that prices reflect all information at any given time.
Pre-sale of Chaos Legion is one financial event. The rules are given. The tokens are trading in an open and free market. In this situation the price of the tokens (Voucher & Chaos) are determined by supply and demand at any given time. Right now, early into the pre-sale, there is a lot of demand and very little supply. This is reflected in the price (high or low is relative). The price at this point is the net sum of all the information and all the market forces. At a future time, the market forces may change (it will) and the price will change with it. The supply of Vouchers will increase every day, that is a fact, until it reach 1M on the 30th day. Demand is unknown. However, there are only 3 possible outcomes with the demand:
- If the demand rises and outpaces the supply, the price will rally
- If the demand stays flat, the price will drop somewhat (proportional to the increased supply each day), but not too much.
- If the demand drops, the price will drop even further.
These are all potential probabilities. I do not have a prediction as I do not predict the market. I am prepared for all possibilities. Hope you are too! Happy trading!
Electronic-terrorism, voice to skull and neuro monitoring on Hive and Steem. You can ignore this, but your going to wish you didnt soon. This is happening whether you believe it or not. https://ecency.com/fyrstikken/@fairandbalanced/i-am-the-only-motherfucker-on-the-internet-pointing-to-a-direct-source-for-voice-to-skull-electronic-terrorism
It looks like my strategy isn't going to pay off at the moment, as demand is weak on vouchers, relatively speaking. But, I don't think they are going to drop that far that I need cry about it. I can also sell a few each day into the market and if they do drop enough, I will buy them back, but I suspect there are many sharks in the voucher market in the midrange.
I will also add, I was under the impression packs would count toward the airdrop, which would have offset a little - I asked in tech support, but no one knows.
It was told that they will count towards SPS airdrop. I will ask around. Many people already asked I expect. Likely a glitch (or a feature).
I suspect so. I don't even know what they would be worth and I only have the 110 of them so far
I am sure you will be reasonbly happy with them.
They count towards the airdrop for sure @tarazkp
Its too early to tell Taraz. Like I said, all hypothesis are good, until they are tested. You still have 27 more days (and potentially beyond). Voucher as a token is here to stay. We just do not know its future usage entirely. My point is that there is probably no wrong answer here.
All of this is upside for me, the only downside is how much upside.
https://twitter.com/bitinvest_news/status/1450847670654980099?s=20
https://twitter.com/bitinvest_news/status/1450847670654980099
The rewards earned on this comment will go directly to the person sharing the post on Twitter as long as they are registered with @poshtoken. Sign up at https://hiveposh.com.
What an excellent post on the voucher drop and what could happen with it! YAY! I love the visuals you provide as well to explain you points!! You've been manually curated by rosiew for 1UP!
Thank you. I love to be part of this success story.
Agreed! :)
Vouchers will change the crypto space into the Splinterlands and are an instrument well needed. You can HODL SPS for the future while spending the VOUCHERS to have some earnings during this time. If you are to ask me, they got the right recipe on this and probably they will continue with it.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I like what the Splinterlands team is doing in terms of 'game economy'.
You are a very big investor in this game, I own very little space so it is very hard to get a voucher and that makes me unable to buy packs, I wish I could open some packs and get some good cards, how much Coupon price today?
I wish you all the best as you open your packages.
count me in @thegolden
Packs can't be open right now, you can only open them after the pre-sale ending and when they officially open the Chaos Legion.
Yes I know that but it is very difficult to get a voucher which I want to open the packages at that time, thank you my friend and good luck
yep, price of vouchers will go up, down or sideways. All a shit load of fun either way 😀
We are in it for the long run. I immensely enjoy playing, I just wish I have more time so that I a play seriously, as opposed to between running errands or before going to bed. Splinterlands is literally changing people's lives.
It's funny how one "game" can have so many financial variables that seems linked and makes you think you are able to predict how they move in relation to each other. And then your prediction gets destroyed by what the market decides to do...
Btw, just saw that you are a geo, what field do you specialise in? I am on the Lithium bandwagon :D
Some game, eh?
I am an oilman.
So I take the other side of that bet :)
The stock market is also a game, just not as fun.
Oil will still be relevant, regardless of what the naysayers say. I reckon it will just be used for more high-value products.
Sure stock market is a game. A good one too.
I certainly don't want to miss out on the benefits that splinterlnds is providing by buying chaos legions, but the prices of the vauchers are very high, so from my part as a small investor I hope it goes down hahaha to at least bet on 500 of them.
And yes, splinterlands is changing lives, thanks to the game we were able to operate my mother in law of cancer so I faithfully believe in it 🖤.
Wait it out. Price might come down. If it doesn’t that’s okay too. You buy during the regular sale, no rush.
Smart money is always ahead of the curve, the full FOMO will come very late. Still impressive how highly you are invested, nice nice.
Yeah. I think so. Will do many things in the next 2 weeks or so :)
I can't see the full picture yet, but I'm convinced that SPS will stay extremely valuable. I hope they make it somewhat delegatable or add something like a Guild SPS Score. It's the governance token of the (maybe) most important crypto game of all time. Every SPS I will spend on buying a Pack, I'll rebuy it from the market at the same time. I can't stand losing even a single one SPS, even if it was airdropped to me; or maybe because it was airdropped to me as a gift.
Call me crazy, but really think @aggroed is nuts and SPS is pure gold.
Well, I agree and I already have 500K plus ;)
smart!
Time will tell
you can also buy packs, sell them and get more than 4$ of value back. So you can buy the packs later.
That's what i have done a bit :) But not on big scale :P ( super mini scale)
because airdrop = the value right?
Yes, many opportunities. Lots of possibilities
1 voucher cost $20 approx in hive engine open market. Those staked SPS already have win win situation .They no need to bother about droping price of SPS or Voucher token. The game planner is perfectly designed the mechanism of the new token called 'voucher' . I am sure voucher price and SPS price will rally and bullish at any time soon.
I am not worried about it
very nice analysis thanks!!
What kind of analysis?
your analysis of the supply and demand dynamics occurring with the vouchers currently
In my head, price of SPS should be higher, it’s hard for me to think people are spending their sps on packs or vouchers, according to my thoughts, there should be lesser sales of SPS and even more demand for it at this time, but all that action isn’t priced in, and I’m wondering why. Care to share your thoughts?
70+ vouchers a day, damn!! I have to save up, at this rate I'll have one full voucher in about 20 days :-P
It is almost 100 vouchers/day now. I have decided to up my game.
You are a monster!!!!!!!!!!! Can I have 10 Free vouchers? LOL, I've got only one. haha
dang 75 vouchers a day that's amazing!
96 now! I decided to up my game.
That's impressive! Are you going for 2,000 packs for all those sweet bonuses and 20% more packs? 20% is legit solid
yes, I will get 2000 packs.
Nice. I just get 0,3 vouchers every day🙄. Would kill for more😳
invest more, and buy more :)
I will try😋
As an economist myself, I love seeing Economics being applied to the real world. Great post!
Hi there. kumusta? how are u today? Splinterlands looks like a very cool game? I used to game much more when I was younger.. what's ur fave game? nowadays I am only playing alien worlds.. I like the slow pace of the game and how u ''mine' up tlm each dig.
:)
We still have many days to wait to find out what will happen after CHAOS LEGION. Right now, most people are just speculating that it could be the beginning of a misunderstanding. We can give our own opinion without being led by the owner or the maker of Splinterlands. Ultimately, we will all benefit from the new update.