What are you going to do with all this GRAIN!

Grain Economy

It hasn't been 2 months since the Land launch at Splinterlands (Nov 28, 2023) and we are now flooded with grain. Flauwy recently wrote a post listing how much grain is getting produced in each region. He wrote:

we are seeing a whooping 4.6 million Grain per day produced - just in Central Fire alone.

At this rate we will see a billion Grain circulating in no time...

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I agree. People are producing staggering amount of grain and there is NO utility what to do with it right now. Vugtis alone have nearly 40M Grain, and he is actually scaling back last I heard, because there is so much grain in the system, it is actually more prudent to run a slight grain deficit and buy grains from secondary market, than use a lot of plots to produce grain. You may want to consider turning on research on some of your grain plots. Here is the secondary p2p market.

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Although in-game, 1000 DEC = 1000 grain; in the p2p market 36 DEC = 1000 grain! That is a whopping 97% discount. If this is not a fire-sale I don't know what is! What is more alarming is the fact that there is no official grain market (LP) yet. A lot of people, including me, is not comfotable trading in p2p market, so even if they have a lot of surplus (like me, 8M surplus), they are lot really selling. Imagine what will happen if that market is available! Grain is basically worthless. There is a word for this kind of economy of Zimbabwe. Its called hyper-inflation.

How do we fix Hyper-inflation?

  1. Tighten everything! Reduce inflation (may not be easily possible here).
  2. Give utility to the currency/token (possible here). Lot of land features are not active. Give all future elements a heavy dose of grain requirement.
  3. Open the LP, it is better to get a bullet to the head, than death by thousand cuts! Give incentive to hold grain.
  4. Raise money externally, use that to improve NPE (new play experience). Basically enable people to like the game, people currently are losing interest.

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I was hoping I might be able to sell some of my extra grain, but it doesn't look like that is going to be the case anytime soon. I think it might be beneficial for those who own multiple lands to build the other two kinds of buildings so they can at least have a use for all their extra.

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Potentially there will be use for the grain in future but everything is so slow that it takes a while to get there. In the meantime we have billions of grains

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I was a bit worried about this myself from the very start when land 1.5 released. I figured as long as land 1.6 with liquidity pools and then land 2.0 with buildings and other resources was not far behind that it wouldn't be that big of an issue. However now every day that passes we are simply hyper inflating to no end that's going to take a while to chomp through. It honestly reminds me of the issues with DEC and hyper amounts of inflation there.

However if we can hold on to all of that grain and use it for when buildings start to kick in we could see it ate up rather quickly. We will go from 3 resources (grain, SPS and research) to now 50 of which buildings will start to be a must in order to keep overall production values ahead of others in particular SPS from land.

Let's just hope this Thursday we get news on the next land phases opening up and not more delays because there going to hurt.

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Here is the trouble; Thursday you will here about "conflict" of the new RB set. That is the new airdrop mechanism.

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yeah... that's what I'm afraid of. I was really hoping for at least a 1.6 update. Hopefully after this conflict thing we are balls to the wall on land again.

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Oh laughs..
The Zimbabwe economy!

Laughs!

How spot on!

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That is one of the best examples of hyperinflation:)

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Don't delay doing Town Halls, that's one thing. There should have been one last week but it was cancelled. We all need 'new stuff', that's what keeps Spinterlands ticking over.

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Here's the rub: a game need constant updates of new features and the team is slow in delivering them. So obviously people with complaint, with or without economic benefits.

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Depending on what happens at these Town Halls, moves SPS up or down. There's one in 4 days, lets see what happens. It was going all so well...

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In the meantime we are running a grain surplus of nearly 1Million Grain/hr

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Hyperinflation anyone??!!

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Totally agree. I'm sure they are working on some game sinks to lower the grain influx, but a quick re-touching of the numbers (Let's say increase a 10% all the grain that is consumed by our workers) would slow a little the flooding.

It is also true that Grain is a Tier-2 token, so to speak, so in time when SPS is more valuable people would prefer to devote their 2-4-10 lands into faming SPS , instead grain.

So grain can be cheap as someone will spend lets say 500 DEC in 25,000 Grain because it will produce 50 SPS which will be valued at 2000 DEC (just a made up example)
I asked the other day Wen Conflicts which were supposed to be ready like one month ago almost, and got no answer, so... Yeah, somewhat slow month. #sps #bro #hivegaming

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Hi, Thanks for an informative post.

I too have been pondering grain ( of all the things to occupy my mind ..lol!!).

I agree, the market is flooded, the price of grain alone tells you that, you don't reach a 97% "discount" with a balanced supply/demand.

For me the big question mark is storage and what will happen to accumulated grain when our current unlimited storage goes away and we need to construct granaries.

Two things could happen and each will have its implications and outcomes.

First option, the Team say ... " all grain accumulated up to the point when Granaries go live can be kept "storage free" , regardless of quantity, any new production needs storage capacity or it rots in the fields.

Second option, .... "You have X-days time to build storage , after that all grain above storage capacity will be eaten by the birds"

Or some combination of the above with a twist here or there, either way, things will change and big infinite stores will go away , that 4.6 million grain production per day will need either consumers or storage or it is burned after that point

So already the grain surplus landscape is starting to look different, we are definitely in a temporary glut, but it is temporary.

The other thing that will change is that only 3 types of land will be able to produce grain, currently any land can produce grain and it is vey likely that we are producing grain on more than the eventual number of plots that will ever be able to produce it. Furthermore, some of the potential grain producing plots will need to be allocated to storage, further reducing plots available for production.

My point ? , this is temporary

My game plan ?... Well, I honestly don't know, it depends on how the team treat grain accumulated prior to storage going live.

I am inclined to stockpile hard at these prices, because supply will contract severely and demand will grow (as all those other land types now become grain eaters).

Eventually I want to enter the liquidity pools, but I will wait, as you point out, big players like yourself are waiting for a "grain exit" , and I can see pools being drained fast at first, then there is the see-saw of rising demand taking the price up from the pitifully low 0.036 DEC currently, and that will shrink the DEC side of the LP. Even grain going to 0.1 DEC will result in a nasty impermanent loss and shrinkage of the DEC side

And then we have the variable of refined foods, essences from LP rewards and building maintenance costs ( you must have wood and stone constantly).

Wow!, my head is spinning, but Azircon, there is a play here for sure, but much more info needed, however, I don't think the current surplus is a long term problem, it is just the birthing pangs of a new economy

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timing is important to get the utility of the grains. Yes, there are utilities in future, but "when will it be available".... is the most important question.

Yes I will be wary of impermanent loss if the grain is paired against SPS. It will severely underperform compared to just holding the grain just by itself.

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Oh!, I assumed the LP would paired with DEC, if it's SPS , then , yes, I agree, even more risk.

Much to ponder, I think given so many unknowns, sitting on your hands and waiting may be the wisest move

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I am in the same situation.. I bought 1 grain = 1 DEC when I was setting up my farms. Now I am really not sure if stocking up on Grain is a good idea. Even I don't trust P2P trading for grain, will be really useful if Splinterlands launches an official platform to swap Grain.

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👍

i'm currently changing assets (cards/dec) from grain producing to land clearing. Hopefully clear all land 'free of charge' in the next 3 months or so :)

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that is not a bad idea. I should use a team of GF Untamed or Beta cards to do this work as opposed to time crystals

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(Edited)

for sure. think others have been onto this since the start, only started yesterday 😂

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yeah, I am usually quite thick and slow:)

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(Edited)

OK! I took action. I am going to use this team to clear plots!

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20 hours to clean one common grain plot!

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(Edited)

Wow that's quick!

trying it a little different,
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Clearing common plots (in just under 10 days) with a ship load of maxed regular Cl cards, DEC and time spent on peak monsters. rinse /repeat 😆

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for sure. think others have been onto this since the start, only started yesterday 😂

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