Splinterlands Phase 2 Pack Sale Airdrop Lesson Learned RE: vOUCHers
Well this was an expensive way to educate myself on buying packs before the public sale.
I have no complaints since making mistakes is part of the process and I'll know for next time. I'm still in my rookie year here.
In sum, I wasn't fully in tune with how the card airdrop process was until I'd already gotten myself hyped up to buy packs. As it'd turn out, I naturally found out the correct dynamics after I'd bought them.
Since I had virtually no cards, DEC or SPS to start when I started playing on 8/30 last year, I got not a single full voucher from the airdrop. This was off-putting at first because the voucher system seemed to heavily favor those who were already entrenched in the game. The red tape was designed to protect early adopters from being cut off by venture capitalists and large guilds, but it really made it difficult for new players. I'm not sure if there was a better solution, but having to pay a premium to have the right to buy packs didn't feel right.
As a result, I sat back and didn't buy any vouchers/packs for the pre-sale phase. No biggie. I had my sights set on the public sale, despite the fomo being spread that packs could sell out right away from large guild purchases. I guess you never know, but some scarcity/sense of urgency marketing may have been involved there.
I had my sights on land first anyway and paid up for 2 plots at around $612 and $575. Not pretty, but funds were from fresh defi interest, and this was a goal I wasn't going to miss. The thought of them being overpriced crossed my mind, but I wasn't going too deep. I since learned that these are claimable tokens for a lottery of land types once issues, but I have to start somewhere and rely on luck a bit. I probably should've been more patient to track the price action of the land, but I almost was relieved to get any, grabbing them shortly after my funds made it into Hive Engine (set bids). I felt like I was late in the game, but didn't project the crypto market tumbling so much to bring the land USD cost down so much.
To the packs:
To get myself introduced to Chaos Legion, I bought ~11 packs on Hive-Engine. I still didn't expect to get into the voucher game, but this got me started on researching the cards. Given that I wanted my gameplay to be easier versus buying older cards, I thought that waiting until 1/17 was quite a long time to stall out again (about 3 weeks from that point). I decided get ~8 packs with vouchers bought on Hive-Engine just to get a taste of the process. These funds came from blog payouts, so no harm done. It was still an experiment to me since I'd never bought a pack before on Splinterlands itself. Heck, I'd never bought a pack at all until my first 11 above on Hive-Engine.
Regardless, my goal was to get more land, so when defi interest pooled up again, while land prices fell hard, I went into action.
The problem was that this thought came into my head... "get some packs, Matt... c'mon get some packs!!"
Since I'd learned that there were airdrop cards for those who bought cards in Phase 2, I thought it'd be wise to get a slightly larger stack of packs to put my hat in the ring. The annoying part was that I'd need to buy all of the vouchers. More money for the luxury to buy cards to potentially get airdropped cards, but again, just an experiment...
So I did it. I put funds for roughly 1 plot of land into vouchers at $2.25, and the packs and potions to match. I rationalized the premium as the price I'd have to pay for not having DEC or high collection power to earn them. I was late to the game. I'd leave the rest to buy a plot and be diversified. I also convinced myself that I might get a rare card that I could sell to cover the bulk of the original land plot I meant to get anyway, so there was a slight incentive to roll the dice.
Now this is where I tripped up.
I still had funds for another plot (and a surplus), but realized that there was a 10 pack bonus if I bought 100 packs. I was well under that, but as vouchers weren't needed for those bonus packs, it seemed like some decent value to offset things. Since I'd just felt the out-of-pocket pain of buying vouchers, I was tilted to value this bonus way too much.
I proceeded to pony up another plot of land worth of funds to grab more vouchers and packs to hit the bonus and more. I also put an extra $100 into credits because I'd probably want to buy some extra loose cards. I thought that the eligibility for the two legendary cards would also be a nice perk, but because I thought they were exclusive to Phase 2 pack buys. I didn't realize that they were also available in future pack purchases. Stupid, stupid me. I should've clicked around to research more. I either misunderstood or assumed, both my fault.
So... I bought up a notch and had fun opening all my packs at once. I did ok, but then started fixating on getting up to 150 packs for a 50/50 shot at the airdrop prize. Over the next week or so, I scooped up some more vouchers/packs, but was still a little shy. I then made one final push to hit 150 on the head and felt happy that I gave myself a coin flip's chance for the 2 legendary cards I thought were exclusive. Blergh.
If I only had the awareness to research more to know the reality of them being in all future public packs, I'd have certainly waited and saved a few hundred bucks on the vouchers. Instead, I found out just a few days before the airdrop rewards were distributed. I was confused, but realized that I was wrong all along.
While I knew that getting a gold legendary was near impossible, I started accepting the fact that my naivety cost me a plot of land. Even if I landed one or two of these cards, I'd still be way in the hole. If I landed none, well, I didn't want to put those thoughts out into the universe. I'd have been pretty annoyed at myself.
Accepting reality, I felt it was best to focus on how I gained experience in the game and have some nice cards ahead of schedule, and will be primed to buy regular packs/loose cards as needed from older editions while they're discounted. If I'd waited until the 17th, I'd be behind on that progress, but was it worth the cost of those vouchers/the chance to buy land at a low?
Well, this was my outcome...
As I play Water often, this was the one I wanted if I had to just get one at best.
I whiffed on the second one, but that's ok. I got something to show for the sunk cost at least, on top of the lessons of course.
At this time, Baakjira is listed for $27. At least I can subtract something from my $310-$320 voucher expense premium to soften the blow.
I tried the card out a few times and am still figuring out how to add it to my normal Water rosters. I'm not sure that I'll use it too often, but it'll be a good option for specific matchups. Leveling this card up will be important for the two other abilities, although there's no rush since I can't play a L2 legendary quite yet. I have a L2 River Hellondale and L2 Djinn Oshannus ready to rumble, but need to get more summoners to combine.
So that's my tale. Nothing fancy, but it does pay to fully research all of the dynamics before succumbing to the excitement of getting new cards. In the short term, I'll need to get 150 more at rack rate to at least have full airdrop eligibility going forward to recoup voucher expenses. I really don't need to have a full deck of max cards to have fun.
While I'd definitely have 2 more plots at a lower cost basis to add to my first 2, I've gained that valuable game experience and familiarity with the CL cards to be cruising in Silver 3. I'd be comfortable in Silver 2 as I'm around 2,200 rating with ease, but I'm held back by my collection power for now.
Once I can get those plots, and maybe a 5th, then I'll start diving into the pack game again. I'm hoping to get a few hundred to stash for the upcoming years as that seems to be quite an easy profit.
Overall, I didn't lose my shirt on this, but definitely didn't. play. my. cards. right.
(gif above... cough)
Thanks for following along,
The gif you chose was perfect, love that movie 🍪⚫⚪⚫.
Great attitude and great lessons. Good luck on the next ones.
I added a pun at the bottom after you commented that I didn't play my cards right. Better icing on the
I'm generally not one for self-promotion, but I was trying to warn people away from buying packs in Phase 2 unless they were buying >300 packs (https://peakd.com/hive-13323/@badrag/vouchers-phase-2-and-the-general-sale). I do a lot of similar economics analysis articles you might be interested in!
That said, there is nothing like actual experience vs. just some guy saying something. I'm glad it sounds like it wasn't too bad a blow, and you are still the owner of 150 nice packs which should appreciate nicely down the line.
Your post was awesome! Thanks for sharing the insight. For now, I'll weigh the actual experience and all of the battles with these cards since as the prize, with a hunch that whatever I spent is just a few breadcrumbs for what I'll part ways with over the long run.
I guess the icing on the Oreo is that those 150 packs you do have now will also award you airdrop opportunities for all 13 airdrops.
The numbers will change over time... so for these two legendary cards you had a 1 in 300 chance of getting one... the next airdrop card might be an Epic so you could have a 1 in 170 chance and the one after that might be a legendary summoner with a 1 in 325 chance.
And you're right... all packs opened from last night will have a chance of scoring these cards... but what are the real chances of getting a Bakkjira card? If there is something like a 0.15% chance of getting a CL legendary and there are 17 CL legendary then the chances of scoring that specific card seem pretty low.
But yeah, I guess the lesson is... buy the things that no one is looking at because the hype train is distracting.
I'm not super sure how Baakjira is going to fit in either. I play Alric Stormbringer a lot and I'm not sure if Baakjira is more useful to me than Lobstradamus.
I'm scared about losing Alric to Wild format. How are you planning on coping with this?
I'm totally fine buying 300+ packs, just was disappointed in myself for not doing enough homework to understand all of the conditions to be slightly impatient and overpay for what I could've bought on the market for much less. Blewitt warned me about this itch and I thought I'd be able to resist. And, today, here I am trying to figure out if I want to buy $150-$250 Untamed Legendaries.
Am I now down another rabbit hole in the rabbit hole I was already in?
@mightpossibly generously delegated some killer cards and they've shown me the light as to the value of having a few more gems that thrive under certain game conditions. It seems like I'm going to have to step up and invest a little, but there are just so many options to choose -- and the ultimate draw back to wanting land first.
I'm not worthy:
Dude! Llama and Kron is such an incredible combination. Kron with last stand is incredible... he gets 6 magic and heals 6 per turn... and then the Llama prevents him from being stunned or poisoned for too long. I love Cornelus as well, I like to put him last where he can usually heal from any sneak attacks.
Alric is the only Water Summoner I have of any decent level. I use him all the time because I literally have no other options. Which ah, doesn't help you in the slightest.
Regarding land, I don't think you need to worry too much. With all the planned functionality of land, I don't think you overpaid at all, even if the price has gone a bit down in the past couple of weeks. I of course have no idea what the prices will be after the land reveal, but think of it like this: There's only 150k plots in total. Splinterlands has on average (per right now) 379k active daily players. And this is only expected to grow. Today already, that's much less than 1 plot per active player. And you own 2 of them! If you manage to get more, that's awesome, but 2 is still a more than what most will ever own. If the Splinterlands team deliver on this (and history this far has shown that they will), these plots will be in extremely high demand in the future. Even if you pull Common plots only.
Haha I feel you hard on that. So many things to spend money on, all of them awesome.
Regarding CL packs selling out, it's very unlikely that you won't have time to buy any if you buy them in the first 24 hours. I could be wrong of course, and pretty much everyone has their own opinion on this. But there are 15 million CL packs. That's 10x the amount of packs in entire Untamed. Some old time players even argue that it's better to only buy the cards separately on the market instead of buying packs at all. At least cheaper, historically. Card prices are apparently expected to fall further when general sale cards flood the market.
I've probably spent more money in the presale phases too than I should have, and I'll personally be buying some packs myself in the general sale, but will be relying on single card buys after that on the market to get my cards up to the levels I need. Will also try to abstain from opening and hodl a few CL packs for at least a couple of years, to get some nice price appreciation.
I found episode 80 of Cryptomaniacs (with a guest from the original Splinterlands team) extremely insightful on this topic. A highly recommended watch/listen.
But hey, the excitement of opening packs really can't be put a price on in my opinion.
This price will go up in the long term, once the card is out of print. Historically card prices in any given series go way up once all packs are sold out. So it's all about patience. Most the cards I delegated to you actually cost less than 27 bucks back when I bought them, and now look at them.
So sure, maybe you bought some packs/cards that were a bit more expensive than they needed to be, but I don't think you messed up too bad. Plus, you got to open them and to have fun :)
Amazing reply. Thanks for the guidance and wisdom. I just heard that 350 packs are needed to guarantee the next airdrop card, and that this sum will continue to rise for future airdropped cards... so the temptation to maintain full eligibility will be there. I just don't know how much I want to spend on packs vs the singles as you mentioned. I also need to get my SPS and DEC up. Like you said, so many options, and all have their perks. I think I'll pause on the third plot until I get another 100-200 packs. The price of singles should fall with the flood of inventory as you said, so I'd then stop the lottery wheel and start sniping what I really need before buying more packs for investment purposes. It is damn fun to hunt high-level golds though. I just want one monster card home run to hold, but haven't quite gotten there yet. I have a 2 gold summoners and a gold epic, and they'll be great over time, but I want one notch up, however unlikely that may be. I'll just try to stay naive and try to get lucky.
Oh to turn back time and want to buy those cards at those prices more than Bitcoin or Ethereum.
You're welcome! Not sure about the wisdom part, haha, but I'll agree that I've accumulated quite a bit of experience with this game. Yeah, that's a tough one. Some of the airdrop cards will apparently not be Legendaries, and will thus require fewer packs for airdrop-eligibility. On the other hand, you'll need more than just one airdrop card to level them up to an adequate level. To max out cards for use in Silver League, 3x Legendaries are required (for Lvl 2), and 10x Epics are needed (for Lvl 3).
So if this were to be done with airdrop cards alone, that would require 1050 packs this time around, more than $4k. My point being, some gaps will probably have to be filled with singles anyways. Maybe this will make it a bit easier to just settle on a number of packs to buy and be at peace with it.
Opening packs is so much fun that it's not even possible to understand it, hahaha! But yeah, that's some great pulls! I actually got my first two Gold Foil Legendaries with Chaos Legion – Never owned one before that. Mainly because back when I was tearing open all those Beta packs, I didn't understand/care to comprehend the concept of Potions, so I just opened without. What a calamity it turned out to be. Just make sure to always always always have enough Potions when opening :D