dec404 Numbers on Investment and Yields

I got some questions today about numbers on dec404 yields, investment, and so on. So here in this video I go through how you might build a deck and what kind of returns you might expect.

TL;DW - Somewhere in the 15-35% range annualized, but with significant variance until you have a lot of decks being played

Monster Market tool: https://monstermarket.io/cost-estimator

Transcription

All right. So I got some questions this morning about deck four Oh four and how how returns work and you know, what kind of numbers we're looking at. So what I did was I tell them that the optimum place to, to have your. You're playing decks is in the silver leagues. So what I did was I went through a bunch of my accounts and I looked at the rewards over the last few seasons.
And so these are all in the silver, maybe low gold range. And those are just the ones that I happen to have. I took a look at their, their earnings and average number, right there is 28, 89. So 28, 89, dark crystals, dark energy crystals per season. And so that's, I think a decent number to work with because we've got a fair amount of data here from what is this?
12 accounts, something like that 15 accounts. So 15 accounts over 51, 52, 53, 54. So after four seasons and obviously we're in season 55 right now. So those numbers are incomplete. So, yeah, we've got 60 data points, which is a decent start. So 28, 89, as, as far as the earning potential. Okay. So then we have to say in terms of return, what kind of, what kind of amount is that on?
So let's do 28, 89 times 24 seasons a year. It's 69,000 dark energy crystals per year for both the gamer or for the player and for the owner. So obviously the price of dark Hendrick crystals fluctuates, but let's say 0.009. All right. So let's 62 bucks, 62 bucks per deck. And then. You know, compared to what so here a monster market that IO has a great cost estimator tool.
You go into tools here and cost cost estimated right there, top one. And you can kind of build model decks in here. And so here what I did was I said, okay, I want all, I want untamed and reward. And, you know, with all splinters. Silver league and I excluded legendary seminars. I excluded two men of seminars and I excluded legendary monsters.
So, and then you click calculate and you come up with this number four Oh one. So four, one. Is so we take 62.4 divided by four Oh one that's 15%, a 15% return annualized. So that's, you know, okay. I mean, it's better than anything you'll get in the stock market. Plus you actually when you're talking about returns, you had somewhat total return.
So we have cashflow in terms of the dark of crystals, but then we also have you know, the asset appreciations and obviously who knows what that'll be, but it's going to be, you know, Positive? I think so. You always have to factor that in, in the back of your mind, in terms of in terms of these kinds of allocations, because you know, at the end of this, whatever the end might be for you, then.
You have something you can then sell it. Cause we still have the cards themselves. So 15% is a base, not bad. But we can do a little better. So for example, we don't need every splinter. You actually only need four out of the five elemental splinters plus neutrals. So if we take out I don't know.
Let's say earth and we take out dragon because it's the only dragon that you actually need is one summoner, because you can always play a dragon quest, maybe mature join quests or in silver. But you play dragon quest with any elemental monsters. You just need that one dragon summoner. So if I'm looking down here but Contessa watching during Drake rubberneck.
So tricky MarTech is a dragon seminar. Derek is a dragon cemetery right there. And you only need one of those and no other dragons in order to complete the dragon quest. So let's go ahead and calculate the costs. So now we're doing the three Oh eight. Now we do have to add $9 back for one of those seminars, but you know, so now we're, we're, we're getting there.
So, you know, we don't need every card. We don't meet every common, every rare, every Epic but you know, it's gives you an idea at least. So like a war Chang, you know, or change is a great card. Not, not that useful, I don't think. So I would say, you know, Nick's that that's $9 gone. You do need the Summoners.
Those are obviously require. But you can go through and you can pick and choose. So, you know, In, in untamed, like in beta there's, there's four commons, there's four rares each splinter. So maybe you only need three of them, you know, and you can cut out a good bit of your costs there. So, so you know, maybe you don't even want to bother with the rewards cards.
Maybe you just want to untamed. And now we're down to one 70, one 69. So now all of a sudden. It would take us to see a 2.4 let's divide by one 70 that's 36%, you know, so, you know, maybe it's somewhere in between. Right. So see 3.4 divided by one, or let's say two 20. So now we're at 28%. So, I mean, it's going to be in that bracket 15% to 32%, something like that.
Median 25% annualized returns and and yeah, so. That's kind of the numbers that we're dealing with now. Now the issue with silver is that if you're only playing one deck, then you have, excuse me, in volatility, because if you look at my numbers here, so like this Burma bright which is one of my nest card accounts.
So it was 32 76, 22, 48, 10,006 Oh seven and then 1760. And, you know, I got a gold, full, Epic reward card in there. So You know, that's that, that kind of randomness is a factor because, you know, you're dealing with a smaller number of Lucas over the whole course of things. Here's one, that's just been kind of sucking for the last couple of seasons, you know, 1500, 1700 2100 1100.
So, you know, when you, when you have in mind, these averages, you just have to think of that. In terms of averages and you know, the volatility around that. So, I mean, if you have 15 of the accounts, then it averages out and you don't have any problems, but if you have one, then it could very well be that, you know, you're on one of these oops.
You're on one of these lower lower trajectories or you can be on the higher trajectory. So this one, this account's been doing great, 4,000, three thousand three thousand twenty seven thousand. You know, that was splitting a a gold for legendary all that one. So, you know, it just, it just varies.
And you have to just be aware that that volatility is, is a factor because of the way that the random number generator works, R N G for the Lucas. So. I hope this helps. And You know, this is how, you know, I would build decks. You know, I would start with the list from monster market and then I would say, okay, I'm looking at, you know, whatever it is, one 7,200 and then, you know, optimize from there.
It could because you don't need every single card. You don't want to be competitive in silver leaks. Another thing last thing to consider is that if your player is good and can compete in the PAX competition. So if you go to split on the hens.com and we look at. The leaderboards for solar. So top place gets 20 packs.
You know, second place gets 15, third place gets 10 and then fives and then twos. So I think it's the top twenty-five. Yeah. So if they can compete for these top 25 packs twenty-five spots four packs, you know, that is a significant because you know, those packs are whatever it is, a dollar 27 each.
And so when you're talking about, you know, 2300 dark and your crystals, you know, plus, you know, a dollar that's a huge bump in the returns. So that is something to keep in mind, but that's obviously not something that anybody can really guarantee because the competition, you know, it gets pretty fierce.
And then you've got bots like pizza chain here having 800 matches. But you know, it's just something to consider. Anyway. I hope that helps answer some of those questions about deck four or four. And if you have any questions, jump on the discord, you know, asking there.

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