What is the Value of a Splinterlands Raffle Ticket?

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Many people are talking in the Discord about the value of the raffle tickets. So in this video I walk through some calculations to estimate what the expected value of a raffle ticket is.

Unsurprisingly, the number isn't exact because we don't have all the information. But I think this gives us a decent range to work with.

No totem value:

Legendary totem = 1 plot

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Great analysis as always! I can't speculate on market prices for totems, but I do want to share how I think about their value and scarcity in the game just based on the information we have publicly provided about them.

You mention in the video that if a Legendary Totem doubles the production of a plot, then it may be worth about the same as a plot, but a key thing that I think that misses is that not all plots are created equal. For example, if someone has a legendary plot of land that contains a magical resource like Sparkstone, that plot will produce far more Sparkstone than lower rarity plots with the same resource (assuming other factors like building level and workers are the same).

So the question in my mind is - if you have a legendary Sparkstone plot with a max level mine, how valuable would one of the few legendary totems that specifically increases Sparkstone production rate be to you? For something like that, even a common rarity Sparkstone totem may very significantly increase your output.

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Hmm, plot variations is something I had completely forgotten about.

Obviously this is all speculative at this point. Even when the raffles are revealed we still won't know how much tokens are worth in the fully live version of the game. We will just have to wait and see what the market thinks of them as development continues and we get more information.

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I think you significantly undervalue legendary totems. If they were valued at 1 plot each, I'd happily trade 200 plots for 200 legendary totems. Heck, I might even offer 2 plots for each legendary totem, so 400 plots for all 200 legendary totems!

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