Price prediction for Splinterlands Vouchers

A lot of people gathered with excitement, when the Chaos Legion (CL) pack sale was announced. DEC and SPS prices skyrocketed and new Voucher system was introduced with the idea, that whales should not get all the packs right away. The vouchers promised special rewards and a Chaos Legion pack during the pre-sale phase. So let's check out what happened next and where do we go from here...

The Voucher

Looking at it I must admit, that the visual design of Splinterlands is something to look at. Let's look at it's history. Feel free to jump over this part, if you already know...

What is the utility of the CL pack:

• 5 CL cards, 1 guaranteed rare or better.

What is the utility of the voucher:

• Everything a CL pack provides
• Limited supply - only 1.000.000 will be created (14.000.000 additional packs can be bought and farmed in game). Vouchers will be distributed between SPS stackers equally (max counted supply is 1.000.000 SPS).
• Each voucher used in the pre-sale has a 2% to provide an exclusive airdrop. 2% of these cards will be gold. By buying 50 Chaos Legion packs the exclusive regular foil card is guaranteed, by buying 1000 packs a gold foil card is guaranteed.
• If you are between the 6 biggest pre-sale pack buyers, then you cooperate on the design of one card.

Now lets convert this into everyday language: If you are afraid, that at the beginning all the 14.000.000 packs will be sold out within a few hours, then the voucher gives you a safety net.
If you want a limited edition card you know nothing about, then you need vouchers.

What happened at

The first vouchers entered the market. As there was an extremely limited supply (only around 30.000) the prices were basically set by the sellers, and not by the buyers. The low demand and he FOMO, which was created around the cards (whales will buy everything, if you are not quick) worked on early buyers. The price fluctuated heavily from 15 Hive up to 38 Hive, but the run was not over.

The run continued on

The demand was still big, FOMO still in the air and slowly fading. In a short peak a voucher was sold for 50.54 Hive but since then the prices are decreasing, The low for this day was 20.251 Hive for a voucher.

Today on day 3 we are down at 18.89 Hive for a voucher the highest were 23.49 Hive.

Unfortunately I did not make a screenshot, but the demand did not increase significantly since day 1. The current status is still around 7000 players are waiting for their vouchers on the market.

The decline of the voucher prices suggest to me, that the market understood that the value given to the vouchers is to high, and I believe that we will go down to at least $5/Voucher and I hope it will drop further to $1/Voucher. What is my reasoning behind this? Simple. Even with $1/Voucher the value to get a guaranteed limited card would be $50 to start with. According to the current market with Promo cards the new card has to be Epic or Legendary at least to return the value of $50 otherwise it could stay below $10. At this point we know nothing about the new card so it is a gamble at on the value of the card.
The FOMO is also calming down, which also suggest the decrease of the voucher price in the long run and I believe this will affect the price of SPS and DEC as well (which increased mainly with the Voucher FOMO).

What could reverse this trend, would be to increased FOMO and to add additional utility to the unused Vouchers.
For the first part I would reveal information around the promo card on an AMA.
On the second part I would wait at least another 2 weeks and add additional information how vouchers could be utilized, or what will be their future in case they are unused.
In case the vouchers won't have any utility by then, then the price will continue to drop.

Share your opinion, if you think my thoughts are incorrect :)

Don't forget the date November 25th (if I'm not mistaken) and the Chaos Legion pack sale starts! See you in the game!