RE: A data-driven analysis of when Chaos Legion will sell out
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Good stuff! Extrapolation is always tricky (especially when there are so many other factors which are coming into play) but I had no idea at all before reading this what the daily rates were like - looks like we might be in for a long sale haha. I'm looking forward to seeing what happens to the daily rate as we approach different airdrop points, preview some more summoners, and get closer to sellout!
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Yeah, I am a big believer in not letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. Yes, I think rates will increase towards the end of each million, and especially at the very end of the sale, but I don't have data on that. I think once we get to 8M, the regression line will be a really good model. Now it's just normal good, and at least somewhat informative.
It might be cool to do an analysis on certain days where the observed is very far off from the prediction. What caused those demand spikes (new summoners, etc. like you mentioned)?