Keep the DEC or convert to SPS? - Wait is the return rates on SPS vs. DEC driving DEC prices?

Ok so for those who have been following Splinterlands SPS journey for the next year every day SPS will be dropped on everyone who holds assets, including DEC. You can also stake SPS for APR. Currently DEC is trading way off peg at $5 per 1000 which is why I was curious if the balance had shifted.

With DEC and SPS on HIVE Engine the question becomes:

Will holding DEC or Staking SPS give better returns?

Airdrop and Power
So first let's talk about the airdrop, DEC counts for 1 points of power per DEC and I am going to use 1000 DEC as it is a nice round number. 1000 DEC = 1000 power. The problem is the pool of airdrop is set and divded by everyone so I can only use myself nad the current state as an example,

I currently gets 12.5 SPS a day from 72,700 power so each day my 1000 DEC is making 0.17 SPS .

Selling that DEC and staking so SPS
So as I mentioned DEC is way way off peg right now and 1000 DEC is currently worth $5.

SPS is currently trading at about $0.275 so my 1000 DEC can be converted to 18.1 SPS.

APR on staked SPS is currently ~ 352% which is 1% a day. So my 18.1 SPS can produce 0.18 SPS a day

Wait is the return rates on SPS vs. DEC driving DEC prices?

I was a little shocked at this close ratio os 0.17 SPS for DEC vs. 0.18 SPS for SPS staking. In fact it kind of hints at a correlation between the two prices.

If I was going to estimate the price of DEC based SPS price I would use the following equation.

Price of DEC =( Daily DEC SPS airdrop rate/ Daily SPS APR ) * SPS Price
Daily SPS APR = (SPS APR/ 352)

This means if only the SPS APR goes down, DEC price will up up
If the Daily DEC SPS airdrop rate goes down, DEC prices will go down
If both hold then SPS will be pegged to DEC at the current rate.

So the race is, will SPS APR go down faster than DEC airdrop rate?


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