Splinterlands Airdrop Madness - How many packs will be required for that final airdrop?!

Hello!

I have something to say about the Airdrops. Increasing the number of packs required for future airdrops is a bad idea for players who have already purchased a large volume of packs.

Most of you know me. I play in Diamond League after stuck in Gold League a lot of the time. I stream Splinterlands everyday on Twitch and have a wonderfully intelligent audience, and on my stream, we discuss things.

Currently, I'm streaming; and the discussion about the latest airdrop card is happening.

On previous streams I calculated an approximate number of packs that would be required to obtain (through opening packs) a max deck. That number was just over 4,000 packs. This was the logic behind me electing to buy (and then hold) at least 4,000 packs. On my alt account (which is where I made my pack purchases, I have 5.5k packs purchased. I hold 4162 packs, which are currently unopened.

Please hold, while we do some maths.

4162 packs multiplied by 5 cards is 20,810 cards.

This means (on average, the drop rate would be... (this is with potions, which will slightly reduce the number of regular foil cards dropped)

Rarity/Foil	Cards on market	Drop rate %	Dropped cards	Is it max?	How many of each card?
Common Regular	29	66.816	13,904.41	Y	479
Rare Regular	28	23.808	4,954.44	Y	176
Epic Regular	17	3.840	799.10	Y	47
Legendary Regular	22	1.536	319.64	Y	14
Common Gold	29	2.784	579.35	N	19
Rare Gold	28	0.992	206.44	N	7
Epic Gold	17	0.160	33.30	N	3
Legendary Gold	22	0.064	13.32	N	<1

Now, I won't bother to do the same calculations using potions, as for someone who is interested (and already has) 1x max Chaos Legion deck; holding those unopened packs isn't a big deal... I didn't want to take chances on not getting the precise number of individual cards, even though, mathematically, is unlikely that with the number of unopened packs that I have there would be the need to sell and buy mismatched cards.

On the other hand, holding these packs until 14 mil packs are sold, and then opening them with the chance of getting additional air dropped legendary cards within is also a mathematical possibility - but only if those packs remain unopened.

The airdrops in future are said to require more packs than the most recent ones. However, my argument is that mathematically; users shouldn't have to chase additional packs to obtain a max deck that they had already accounted for in their initial calculations.

We know that the remaining seven airdrop cards to come are most likely legendary cards, so we would need to base the Legendary Regular on 22+7, being 29, divided by 319. This works out to be exactly 11 of each card on aggregate, or in the worst case scenario, more of a particular legendary that you can trade for the one you may not have gotten.

TLDR

If the minimum packs required for an airdrop continues to increase as the sales progress towards the end of the Chaos Legion edition - this will mean that on average, players who wish to maximise their deck for Diamond or Champion League play, will in fact need to purchase more packs than what would actually be required to obtain cards of this level.

This makes the assumption that players don't purchase their cards individually on the market, but rather open all their packs for their own use, as many would in traditional card games.

My plea is such: "Don't increase the packs required for future airdrops anymore"

Paraphrasing @bakuoni:

"Why buy more packs which, as a major purchaser of packs are dead cards that I won't need if my boosters already have all the cards that I would mathematically require to max out a deck if I waited for the end of Chaos Legion and just opened them all up?"