Incredible! Battle lost with 99% chance of winning 2 [ENG ESP]
Incredible, it happened to me again. I'm going to share a battle that I played a few days ago and I lose again.
Increíble, me ha pasado otra vez. Voy a compartir una batalla que jugué hace unos días y que perdí de nuevo.
Battle conditions
First of all let's see the conditions of the battle. In this case there was only one that was Noxious Fumes, it was only allowed 15 mana points, and it could use all splinters except Life. As I have already commented on several occasions in these conditions I like to play with the Fire splinter and its Forgotten One, my second option would be the Death splinter with Harklaw or finally the Water splinter with a good tank and River Nymph to remove the poison.
Primero de todo vamos a ver las condiciones de la batalla. En este caso sólo había una que era Noxious Fumes, sólo se permitían 15 puntos de maná, y podía utilizar todos los splinters excepto Vida. Como ya he comentado en diversas ocasiones en estas condiciones me gusta jugar con el splinter de Fuego y su Forgotten One, mi segunda opción sería el splinter de Muerte con Harklaw o finalmente el splinter de Agua con un buen tanque y River Nymph para quitar el veneno.
Line up & Battle link
In this case, having so little mana when using Forgotten One, I only had 2 mana points left, so I decided to put Scavo Chemist in first position, with Tarsa it has 5 life points and the poison will be removed, which will probably will be still alive at the begining of the second round. In the final position I put my Scorch Fiend to be able to protect Forgotten One in case there is a Sneak. The truth is that I can't think of a better line up than the one I'm using.
En este caso al tener tan poco maná al utilizar a Forgotten One ya sólo me quedaban 2 puntos de maná, así que decidí colocar a Scavo Chemist en primera posición, con Tarsa tiene 5 de vida y se quitará el veneno, con lo que probablemente al principio de la segunda ronda aún seguirá en pie. Al final de todo puse a mi Scorch Fiend para poder proteger a Forgotten One en el caso de que haya algún Sneak. La verdad no se me ocurre una mejor alineación de la que estoy utilizando.
On the other hand, the enemy put Djinn Oshanus as the first tank, River Nymph to remove the poison and Torrent Fiend in last position to protect himself from any possible Sneak. Sounds like a good lineup to me too, but I shouldn't have a problem to win, this Djinn Oshanus has no armor and my Forgotten One with 5 damage points should finish him in a couple of hits. But let's see what happens.
Por otra parte el enemigo puso a Djinn Oshanus como primer tanque, River Nymph para quitarle el veneno, y en última posición a Torrent Fiend para protegerse de algun posible Sneak. También me parece una buena alineación, pero no debería tener problemas en ganar, este Djinn Oshanus no tiene escudo y mi Forgotten One con 5 de puntos de daño debería acabar con él con un par de golpes. Pero vamos a ver que sucede.
Round 1
At the end of the first round everything is going as planned. I've taken 3 magic damage (all opponent's damage) but my Scavo Chemist is still alive. The poison effects of the two first position creatures have been removed.
Al final de la primera ronda todo va cómo estaba previsto. He recibido 3 puntos de daño mágico (todo el daño del rival) pero mi Scavo Chemist sigue en pie. Los efectos de envenenamiento de las dos criaturas de la primera posición han sido eliminados.
Round 2
Here at the end of round 2 everything is as normal. His Djinn Oshanus has attacked first, finishing off my Scavo Chemist, and then his River Nymph has done a point of damage to my Forgotten One. Finally my Forgotten One hits the opposing Djinn Oshanus despite having a 30% chance of fail. I have 9 health points and many rounds to go in which I only have to hit this Oshanus one more time.
Aquí al final de la ronda 2 todo sigue según lo normal. Su Djinn Oshanus ha atacado primero acabando con mi Scavo Chemist, y después su River Nymph ha hecho un punto de daño a mi Forgotten One. Finalmente mi Forgotten One ha asestado su golpe al Djinn Oshanus rival a pesar de tener un 30% de probabilidad de fallar. Tengo 9 puntos de vida y muchas rondas por delante en las que tan solo tengo que dar un golpe más a este Oshanus.
Round 3
The poison has killed his River Nymph and now there are only two creatures left. The Oshanus never misses and in this case the Forgotten One has missed its attack, we remember that it has a 30% probability, so it should miss one out of 3 attacks. I still have 7 life points, so I have 3 more chances.
El veneno ha matado a su River Nymph y ahora ya solo quedan dos criaturas. El Oshanus nunca falla y en este caso el Forgotten One ha fallado su golpe, recordamos que tiene un 30% de probabilidad, es decir debería fallar uno de cada 3. Aún tengo 7 puntos de vida, así que tengo 3 oportunidades más.
Round 4
I have missed the hit again, 2 misses out of 3 hits with a 30% probability, I have had bad luck, but I still have 2 chances left.
He vuelto a fallar el golpe, 2 fallos de 3 golpes con un 30% de probabilidad, he tenido mala suerte, pero aún me quedan 2 oportunidades.
Round 5
Another miss, now I only have one chance left, I hope it will be the good one.
Otro fallo, ahora ya sólo me queda una oportunidad, espero que sea la buena.
Round 6
Incredible, with a 30% probability of missing the attacks I ended up missing 4 attacks out of a total of 5, that is, 80% failures, i can't believe it.
Increíble, con un 30% de probabilidad de fallar los ataques he acabado fallando 4 ataques de un total de 5, es decir un 80% de fallos, la verdad esto de la estadística a veces juega malas pasadas.
Conclusions
After thinking that I should have won this battle and that I was very unlucky, I decide to go to the Splintertools website where they have an interesting history of battles where you can see the probability of winning the battles, and what was my surprise? See it yourself.
Después de pensar que esta batalla la tendría que haber ganado y que he tenido muy mala suerte decido entrar a la página web de Splintertools dónde tienen un interesante histórico de batallas dónde poder ver la probabilidad de ganar que tienes, y cuál fue mi sorpresa? Véanlo ustedes mismos.
Well, I don't only see that I was very unlucky as I thought, I also have seen that in 99% of the cases I should have won this battle. I suppose that something similar has happened to many of you, but it was the second time I lose a battle with a 99% chance.
Pues no sólo veo que he tenido mala suerte cómo ya me pensaba, sino que en un 99% de las ocasiones debería haber ganado esta batalla. Supongo que a muchos de vosotros os ha pasado algo similar, pero es la segunda vez que pierdo una batalla con un 99% de probabilidades de ganar.
(Photos I used in this post are taken from splinterlands.com and from splintertools.io for this post purpose only)
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