A Monstrous Hunger
In three weeks from now, on the 18th of October, Chaos Legion packs go on presale at $4 each for those who have SPS staked. In order to buy in the presale, pack vouchers are required. So, one voucher gives the possibility to buy one pack. These vouchers are tradeable, so it is possible to buy some from people who aren't going to use all of theirs, but I suspect that there won't be a great deal of them out there and those that are will be expensive.
Originally, my plan was going to be to buy 2000-4000 packs, but I had estimated them to be at around 3 dollars max. So, I lowered to 1000, so it would be a $4000 dollar outlay, which I think is pretty significant for 1000 packs. However, going on the calculations, I won't get anywhere near that since the vouchers my SPS stake will generate during the drop based on current stake totals, means I will be lucky to get 3 vouchers a day. That means that even if I wait until the end of the month to purchase, I probably won't even qualify for the smallest discount of 10% for the amount bought over the first 100 packs at a time - damn it.... and I thought I had a fair bit of SPS - considering I am a late starter. And, once the liquid SPS from the large accounts hit staked, my percentage will lower again.
It looks like I am not going to be able to "ape in" like I kinda did with DICE packs at all, as I am just not a large enough stakeholder to make it possible. This is not the end of the world as if I want to I can buy after the presale, but I am a little disappointed, which opens up the potential for FOMO, but I just can't warrant getting large amounts of additional SPS stake (I bought some on announcement) in order to buy a few more packs, but still not have the potential to get enough to have additional benefits over the open sale. I am not going to compete with the whales on this one and with 15 million packs available, I will likely have a fair amount of time after presale to buy my fill.
However, I have over 10,000 SPS staked at the moment, which has a street value of around 3800 dollars, which is a mixture of airdrop and market purchases. If this gets ~3 vouchers a day, that likely means there are going to be a lot of people who are going to get fractions of vouchers a day, meaning that they are going to have to wait several days to buy individual packs or sell their vouchers on the market. I suspect that many are going to be selling vouchers, since there is very little benefit to buy presale, considering the chances of getting the valuable cards is so small. This means that more of the drop cards will go to those who have the most vouchers and there are some very large SPS holders out there.
I think that this lowers the incentive to buy new packs in the open sale also, as if this is the way presales will be, it will continually be the same group of heavily staked users who will continually get the majority of the best cards. While there should be an early investor bonus, if it ends up creating a few monsters that dominate everything, will there be a point for new players to come in as investors?
Honestly, I don't know, but I am trying to work out what is the best path forward for myself, which means trying to also predict what other people are going to do. The investment side of the game is far more complicated (and addictive) than the game itself for me, as there is a complexity in the numbers that are very hard for me to calculate and a whole lot of human nature unknowns to account for - which is more my kind of game to play.
Over the next few weeks, I am sure I will spend some time parsing the information and working out a "game plan" for myself with my three four Splinterlands gurus to help. But, I am now far less certain as to what is the best course of action for me than I was pre-announcement than I am post-announcement. One benefit is though - I thought I was prepared to collect many thousands of dollars in order to buy the presale, but now I don't have to, since I won't have enough vouchers to warrant it. That means that I can stay in on other things and wait for some market pumps instead.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Great post! It is VERY exciting times, isn't it? We'll have to see what happens moving forward! I wish you so much success in your decisions! :)
It is indeed exciting!
Part of my own "FOMO process" is thinking through some of the variables and at the end going "screw it!" and buying anyway :)
HAHAHA.... okay, you're starting to sound like me now. :) COMPLETELY my similar thought process! ;)
Great post discussing various investment ideas! Splinterlands is VERY exciting right now! You've been upvoted by rosiew.
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Thank you very much! :)
I think I will wait until it all starts. There are going to be a lot of moans about 'inequality'. In the past, you just needed to buy packs to get the airdrops. This pre-release only for airdrops seems unfair to the smaller buyers.
Yeah, I am not moaning about inequality here - more that I can't use my inequality to buy more ;D
Though, as the fourth
horsemanguru of the Splinterlands Apocalypse, have a read of Discord and see what you think :)I don't like it any more than you. I saw the message trail.. but I think we need to hang around and wait for more details. They might change their plans before it all starts to roll.
Yeah, I am not going to jump to any conclusions yet, but it might be interesting :)
I own a few cards, but since I am only playing the daily quest for the SPS and the one reward chest I am considering selling some of my card holdings.
I have no idea what is up and down in this market, but at the moment, card value is about 30% down from where it was a few weeks ago for me.
I think I'll wait on the sell of toward mod december just in case I am a bit shy of my 10,000 HP goal.
A lot of complexities ..
The game looks like early investors can't gain so much
In the presale, they can gain a lot if they have a lot. I am a late investor (at this point), so I won't get much benefit from buying early, unless very lucky with card pulls.
My first thought was the same, its prefer the whales..., but beside that i guess they just don't want to see any liquid SPS, either stake it or burn it in the shop :)
While the voucher system stay in use the pack wont roll out fast, but i guess after the Vouchers will be not needed for purchase, everyone just want to get their share of them... The question is how long they want to restrain the crowd from the packs.
I wonder how many will be buying with SPS, since thee is a 10% discount to do so. Does it burn the SPS?
It doesn't burn the SPS... it's income for the Splinterlands team/business.
Would be nice to have some burn percentage on it perhaps.
Well i just think so... Does using DEC in the shop burning that, is it right? The ranked reward also 'll be SPS they mentioned. If at any point SPS will replace DEC i think it should be the similar usage.
I have read that there will be 13 airdrops in the course of distribution. Once 1 millions CL card pac sold, there will be airdrop of one card. I think only those, who have joined pre-sale, can participate every airdrop.
But does everyone who bought presale get a card?
I don't think so.
Crikey, you will only get about 3 per 10K. That means I will get 0.3! Might have to see how it goes
Unless I have missed a zero! :D
I bloody hope so!!
I just started playing splinterlands also brought some dec and SPS tokens for the game I'm hoping to buy some cards would you mind recommending some
I am definitely not the right person for it, as I don't know the majority of the cards. However perhaps @azircon can recommend a basic user guide, if one exists.
This is a lovely question, but it almost requires a post. The trouble is, we can only comment about the existing cards. They are generally expensive now. The new cards that will be released in about 2 months are unknown, So the new player is between a rock and a hard place.
For now, I recommend the starters and some basic rentals depending on your level. If you mention your specific level, I maybe able to recommend some rentals
where do I see my level I just joined yesterday?
You're currently unranked - you need to play a game to rank.
ok got it
Yes .. un ranked :)
Play around a bit.. too soon
ok i will
See below :)
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yeah we are also trying to figure out the best game plan as wont get what had initially planned for. Makes for fun conversations around the dinner table. (my wife and two oldest, also play)
For sure. It is going to be interesting to see what actually happens and if the largest holders will use all their vouchers or put them on the market. Whatever happens, I think the million packs will sell through.
This is my dinner table BTW. My family don't care about any of this crypto nonsense at all!
Good luck with your planning.
lol.
I am definitely terrible at math... but wouldn't you get like 6.6 vouchers a day?
Per https://peakmonsters.com/@tarazkp/airdrop you have a Total Airdrop Percentage of 0.02% and 0.02% of the daily 33,333 is 6.66. I think.. maybe... I might have screwed up somewhere.
If I'm right, I think that puts you up way closer to the 200 mark for that last week of presale.
Obviously the voucher system is to help newbies get a chance to purchase packs at presale since without it there's the chance that whales ape in and buy the whole million in the first day or two... but yeah, I guess that means that no one at all can ape in (unless they spend big on vouchers - which does seem like a free gift to newbies to sell to whales).
Do you have a plan for the packs you do buy? Hold for resale later or open to wreak up the leagues?
I calculated my percentage at 0.01 at the time of writing. Since then, I staked some more SPS :) But, I also think that once more people stake their SPS that they use in the pools, it will return close to 0.01.
For the noobs, they won't likely have enough vouchers at all, unless the whales sell to them.
Not sure yet, since I am planning on buying more over time, I guess I can open the first ones and see what is "on the cards" and then decide what to do with later packs. What is your plan?
Ahhhhh, gotcha gotcha, that makes more sense to math brain.
I've been feeling extremely underpowered for a long time in leagues and in tournaments... my cards are mostly beta edition and I'll often be destroyed by far less powerful collections that have mostly Untamed cards. I'll be opening every pack I manage to purchase and buying up new cards (particularly summoners) to try to rebalance my collection.
plug in your SPS holdings and see :)
https://www.splintercards.com/tool-vouchers.html?
This is EXCELLENT! Thank you for this! And well done on the dev crushing this out in a couple of days!
@revisesociology handed me the link - so I can't take finder's credit :)
Look at it as a good thing, otherwise you will blow all your hard earned and then be disappointed if they didn’t hold you back with the voucher system.
I might start calling you Mr Fomo.
lol. Yeah, I have earmarked this for a while, so it isn't complete FOMO :)
I am just kidding you, no matter how much you spend on splinter lands I don’t think you can lose.
This looks like a great investment opportunity, I might have to Stake some of my sps and see how I go with it all
Are you just speculating on the SPS price?
Nah, I've been a bit more methodically focused lately and cutting down on how much I am in and investing in. I have too many projects with too small amounts of cash. I'd like to say I'm bullish on Terra but I'm not, I don't hodl much.
So I've pretty much been letting my SPS build and then dumping once it gets to a few dollars. Buidl my Hive, Cake, Leo, Terra positions. I am capitalising on a few market dips of Bro from time to time.
I need to start investing properly, otherwise I make no cash and end up with a crap tax bill as I learned this financial year. That was painful seeing how much I've invested and how much I actually have and that the tax man made more from crypto than me. Consolidation it is for me.
But if SPS is dropping packs to stakers than it might be worth accessing some of that.
It is worth consolidating for sure. There is always that feeling of "is this the right one" of course, but that is part of the game of it.
That is great concept to encourage user to stake their SPS by Splinterlands programmer . I always staked my SPS from airadrop and hopefully i will be able to enter in presale discount .
Yeah, it isn't bad overall. Will be interesting to see how it plays out :)
I probably will also pass on the pre-sale. Only have 2.8K SPS staked, which would be one voucher per day. My initial plan was to purchase 250 to 300 packs, but this had to be downsized due to the price of the packs. I will try to purchase 200, but that will be my limit.
For the team is it a tough balance to find between the SPS staking and assigning a value to the packs. The also have to make sure that the old cards won't be the looser of the CL packs.
Still I do find $4 on the high side.
So my plan to participate in the pre-sale has been put into the fridge. Just like you I do assume that there will be enough packs left after the pre-sale. Wasn't the pre-sale limited to 1M packs?
Looks like SPS has already become a great hit. To misfortune is this,I dont like to play games, and although SPS seems very hard to understand, ooh,,how tough it is!!😮
i was planning 2000 packs, now i am lucky getting 500.