Measuring my DEC

One of the things (there are many more) that I don't really understand in regards to Splinterlands, is how DEC is valued. Currently, I have a fair amount of it that I pool with SPS and it has dropped in value significantly over the last few weeks, which I assume is due to the rewards doubling with the release of the new game format for CL only, or is it that the airdrop is coming to an end and people are looking to offload before the mass exodus?

Admittedly, for me coming into Splinterlands late, the value of DEC was already inflated and the people who have been playing for years, likely stacked a massive amount far lower than today's price and can offload for ages to come, but the slide has been pronounced.

What I assume though, is that due to the amount that people hold, Splinterlands will have to find a way to add value to DEC through in-game mechanisms that are more attractive than building a guild, which doesn't soak up and sink that much DEC.

I am not exactly sure what this means, but it was clipped to me in a Discord, so I should probably have a look at what Terra is doing - since I haven't paid any attention to that at all. However, if the "future is bright" why are people selling so heavily, as even at the declining price, the daily volume on H-E is nearing $200K dollars, which means a fair amount is being traded. At some point, I guess I will have to put in a buy, but I think I might have to wait a bit longer before biting that particular bullet as it doesn't look like pulling up soon.

However, this is not my area at all, for as I said above, I don't understand all of the mechanisms in play. I am far too simple for such complexity and am still stuck on card buys and values and expanding my SPS holdings. There is only so much I can hold in my brain and consider at any one time and, I think I am stretching to the edges of my capabilities currently.

What is interesting though is there are still four months of SPS airdrops to come, so selling now seems like a bad move, however it is also possible that selling the DEC for SPS is going to attract more SPS than the drop from now on - but that also means not having the DEC.

One of the things that I have learned in the last five years is, it is better to have tokens than not have tokens. Many people seem to take the sell approach of "there is no utility" or "declining price" as if the current circumstances are set in stone and will not change. And I think in the case of Splinterlands, the team has a track-record of building value mechanisms into the development, which means that various types of innovations can happen in the next months that fundamentally shift the dynamics of the economy. If this happens, it can push the value of assets up quickly and that can mean, missing out on getting that stack back.

Currently, I am holding almost 4M DEC and pooling with SPS - which means that with my CP and the like, I am collecting on about 10M airdrop points, which means I am collecting about 800 SPS a day, which is worth about $80 dollars - but with the decline in DEC, this doesn't cover the "loss" in value. But, does that matter? If this is solid for the next 120 days, it will provide another 96,000 SPS and, I will have the DEC still. If I were to sell all of my DEC for SPS today, it would get me about 75,000 SPS and I wouldn't have the DEC. This means that even if DEC goes to zero, I will be better off in SPS and what happens if the usecase for DEC increases even mildly?

Am I missing something here?

On top of this, the SPS drop to investors ends in a few weeks and that means, SPS is going to get harder to get, as it will only be coming through collection points and pooling etc. for the last three months of the drop. That is a massive change in the ecosystem, as it will severely restrict the new SPS volume that can potentially hit the market and may encourage DEC to be bought in order to maximize the last hurrah. Past that, I am not sure where new SPS comes from (told you I am limited in understanding) and I want to make sure that at that point, I am carrying enough SPS weight so I don't have to worry about getting more.

The potential on SPS is large for the future, but again, track-record shows that most people will not look very long on any token, so they will make "rash" trades to maximize short-term, but may end up missing the potential of the long. Of course, this depends on many factors and life circumstances, but I am lucky, as I work a couple jobs and don't need crypto to pay bills. This means, I can buy and hold cards, increase my holdings and speculate on the long view, without it damaging my current lifestyle. All it means is that, I have live within my IR means, so there is also no expansion of my lifestyle.

I am okay with that.

I think Splinterlands is in a bit of a "lull before the storm" phase, where there was the hype of Chaos Legion and then the fizzle due to perhaps short-term over supply of packs and cards. However, LAND is in the pipeline and that is expected to soak up a huge amount of SL resources, which means that even after the release of Rifwatchers (bought with SPS only I believe), once that land requires workers - the card markets are going to get very thin. Will DEC be required too? Will those with a plot have to have to sink DEC in for upgrades?

I don't know, but the next year or two is going to see a lot of volatility on Splinterlands and at least for SPS, I think we are near the bottom, so this is the easiest it is going to get to get it. Because of this, my hope is that by the end of the drop, I will have secured somewhere around 350K SPS through drops and purchases, and have enough DEC in the wallet so I can put more than just the tip in.

Are you holding your DEC too?

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]