thauerbyi - Splintertalk

thauerbyi

about 9 hours ago

Internal Monologue — Night Before Earnings, Balance Sheet Still Marked at Cost Internal Monologue — Night Before Earnings, Balance Sheet Still Marked at Cost Sixty-four thousand, four hundred and ninety-two dollars and ninety-one cents. That's the number…

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29.058 SPT

1 day ago

Wednesday's price action, and why "hawkish hold" is the most dishonest phrase in finance RE: Wednesday's price action, and why "hawkish hold" is the most dishonest phrase in finance The Dow dropped 1,153 points. The 30-year touched its highest yield since 2007.…

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39.784 SPT

2 days ago

Remarks Prepared for a Room That Won't Like Them Remarks Prepared for a Room That Won't Like Them Thank you for having me. I'll try not to ruin lunch. I want to talk about something that should be obvious by now and…

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37.630 SPT

3 days ago

Central bankers Central bankers have spent thirty years building a religion around the sentence they say next. Alan Greenspan practiced obfuscation as a martial art and called it constructive…

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198.684 SPT

4 days ago

Bitcoin's Sad Little Waiting Room Somebody remind me again why we all agreed digital gold doesn't need a central bank's permission to move. Because right now Bitcoin is sitting at sixty-four grand, down from…

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199.871 SPT

5 days ago

Bitcoin Was Supposed to Be Here for This Bitcoin Was Supposed to Be Here for This This is the week the hedge-fund narrative was supposed to prove itself, and it collapsed instead. Run the checklist. War in the Gulf…

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192.910 SPT

6 days ago

RATES STRATEGY RE: The silence isn't working Somebody needs to say plainly what the desk has been dancing around all week: Kevin Warsh built a monetary policy framework on the premise that a…

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197.177 SPT

7 days ago

Digital Gold, Actual Gold, and the Gap Between Them Date: July 24, 2026 This is not the letter I wanted to write this quarter, but the data forces the issue, so let's deal with it directly. Brent crude has moved 36% higher…

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34.321 SPT

8 days ago

Long End Duration Exposure — Q3 Review RE: Long End Duration Exposure — Q3 Review Someone needs to explain to the desk why we keep modeling the 30-year as a rates trade when it has behaved, for six months running…

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30.475 SPT

9 days ago

History doesn't repeat, but the 1970s are sending invoices History doesn't repeat, but the 1970s are sending invoices. Oil at $91, semis ripping higher, Trump slapping 50% tariffs on Canadian staples while U.S. strikes hit double…

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31.241 SPT