How Much SPS Per Plot for LAND 1.5?

Calculating the SPS share for a plot is difficult

But I think I am running some sensible numbers here. Feel free to correct me; what follows is a rough calculation for possible SPS rewards for holding 1 plot + cards. This of course can only be an average and heavily depends on the assumptions made here. I am not going to get into the different rarities for the plots or the different types. But you could easily adjust that for your plots if you have some.

As per white paper the reward pool for LAND will be about 5.5M starting in November (with a 1% reduction per month). We also have 150k plots and I think we can assume here a 90% utilization at the start (with that percentage gradually climbing in the following months). If so we would have around 135k plots starting to farm 1 of 3 resources: grain, research tokens or SPS. I am going to assume that the majority of people will start mining SPS, since this would generate an instant return that could be utilized (sold or staked). But how many plots will mine SPS?

We can see the list of rarities/types here:

Magical plots will favor mining research tokens and occupied plots favor SPS mining. All in all I think we could see a split up into the 3 types of resources as follows:

• 10% grain
• 35% research
• 55% SPS

I don' think that we would see much more % for SPS since we already have 12% magical plots that only enable research and whales like @yabapmatt already said they will go for research owning entire region(s).

As such we could see around 74k plots going for SPS.

135k*0.55=74.25k

 

If SPS would be distributed equally (as it is now), we could then have around 74 SPS per plot per month.

5.5M SPS / 74.25k plots = 74 SPS/plot per month

 

But we know that this won't be the case. SPS distribution will depend on how many production points you will have per plot.

We can only try and calculate the average PPs per plot here in order to get a meaningful number for SPS. But that is quite difficult since there are a lot of variables. However, I think we can still come up with a meaningful number.

We know that the maximum PPs for a plot will be 100k. But we also know that it is incredibly expensive (thousands of $) to do so, and is often not even possible since all these older gold foil cards are not on the market anymore. We can also assume that players will stake at least 5k PPs per plot since it is fairly cheap to do so (getting 5x max common reward cards). Spending $3-5*5= is "only" around $20. While that is also not little, it makes little sense to utilize land for less PPs. We can probably assume that PPs will continue to rise with the rollout of land as well. I am going to calculate an average here simply based on the $ cost it would require a certain number of PPs (basing it off of the circulation of cards with PPs is quite a lot of work). Since there are only "a few" cards that have a really high PPs (Alpha, Beta and Untamed gold foil legendaries), these high values quickly become diluted when we take the massive amounts of plots as well as the highly inflated chaos legion reward cards into account. If we only assume that people will on average have e.g. 20k PPs per plot (which would be 20% of max) this already costs around $100-140 on average (!). Land is expensive! And so I think it is a better guess to say that the average PP per plot would perhaps be around 10k.

In other words, the 74 SPS per plot would be rewarded on average to plots with around 10k PPs.

 

But... we also have to take into account the amount of DEC/Energy staked per plot. Returns will be dependent on the quantity of DEC staked per plot. It will cost 10k DEC for a max level card. This would be around $50 or 50k DEC for being able to utilize the plots at maximum efficiency. This is of course is rather expensive (especially for people staking "bad" cards at max) and we can pretty safely assume that we won't see anything close to that when land goes live. This is also because there is not enough DEC currently in circulation (100% utilization would require 7.5B DEC!)! It's impossible to know how much utilization we will get here, but for simplifying things let's assume a 50% rate or 25k DEC per plot on average.

This would mean that when we assume 10k PPs per plot on average and a 50% utilization, we would get a 5k realized PPs per plot. In other words, we can assume around 74 SPS going out to plots that on average have a realized PPs of 5k.

 

But wait, there are taxes. There are going to be 10% in LAND 1.5 so we have to remove that from the 74 SPS and we get ~> 66 SPS

Conclusion

Have you read this far? And if so, do you agree with these many assumptions that I am making? We can safely say that I am going to be wrong, but the point is to get a rough feeling for how much SPS could be going out on average for plots with a 5k realized PPS.

My answer is 66 SPS

Now if this is anywhere near correct, you can now assess your personal situation. Are you under or over the 5k PPs? If you are double of that over it, you can multiply 66 SPS by 2 and get your average amount of SPS payed out per plot (per month).

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