Educated Guess or Pure Speculation?

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Less than a week ago, I did something that I usually avoid doing; speculating on short-term prices fluctuations. Normally, I tend to lean towards the more conservative way of investing, which is long-term hodling.

However, one specific thing pushed me to do so. Seeing myself primarily as an investor, even though I highly enjoy playing the game, the upcoming SPS validator nodes were something that tickled my interest.

That being said, not having any details about how much would cost a license, I could only base my decisions on things that had already been disclosed. At the time, I thought there was no way I would be able to afford it.

Yet, I wanted to find a way to profit from it one way or another.

Splintershards (SPS) Validator Node Overview & License Presale

With the detailed plan public since then, it appeared that I wasn’t that far away from qualifying for the pre-sale. Thanks to the fact that I have been accumulating as many SPS tokens as I could for the last two months, I had the required $1000 of SPS.

The pain point was, and still is, the vouchers. I knew this would be an issue because as a fairly new player, I didn’t have enough time to stack on those vouchers in the hundreds. Moreover, I had no idea how much exactly would be asked for a license.

With those few pieces of information in mind, I decided to buy 68 Vouchers (for $70) and 3635 SPS (for $400) as part of a short-term play. I recognized that 68 Vouchers were unlikely to be enough, but I didn’t want to sit on too many Vouchers when compared to SPS.

After the announcement, it looks like I should have switched both positions. This would have got me close to those 500 Vouchers, which would have given me a shot at the pre-sale! Hindsight is 20/20, therefore, it is hard for me to have any regrets.

Having almost reached the hard cap budget of $2000 I fixed to myself and, even though the license was “only” $800+ away ($2 * 400 or so Vouchers), I was not willing to put more than I was willing to lose. This was a hard call, but I am sticking to it.

The thing is, in order to buy a license at the pre-sale, I would have to liquidate almost all of my current SPS holdings, which I am a bit reluctant to do.

Consequently, this led me instead to take some profit off the table from those two short-term positions. I ended up selling 38 Vouchers and 635 SPS for a total of $165. That’s not too bad for something that was meant to be a flip anyway.

I still have 30 Vouchers left from this trade. On top of that, I’ve also decided to stake the remaining 3000 SPS, which “unintentionally” helped me cross my goal of owning over 10k of this governance token in total.

Only time will tell if those decisions were savvy or not. But, from a short-term trade perspective, this could have been worse. Now, my next step will be to think calmly about how to re-invest those $165 into the game as effectively as I can.

See you soon.
Cheers!

Thomas

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https://splinterlands.com?ref=tt88

Thank you.