SPLINTERLANDS: Why I BELIEVE I’ll get one of the LEGENDARY SUMMONERS with my 110 Chaos Legion packs. Well, hopefully!

Last week, after not getting a copy of the Carnage Titan, I was curious to see my odds for the next airdrops going forward. Here are the numbers.

Chances of getting a given airdrop since the start of the General Sale:

Looking at those numbers, not so surprisingly, I had a 99.99% of NOT getting every single airdrop card. The interesting fact, however, is that by working the maths the other way, I only have a 6% chance of getting NONE of them. This convinced me to buy 110 Chaos Legion packs at the start of the General Sale.

Before Lira The Dark, the 1st airdrop post-General Sale, my odds of getting at least one card from the airdrops was close to 94%. Similar to Poker, however, every time an unfavorable card comes out, the chance of winning a given hand diminishes after each round until it eventually reaches 0% at the River.

Today, I still have a 69.72% chance of getting one of the next 6 airdrop cards, which will all be Legendary Summoners. I like those odds, but as I’ve just mentioned above, after each unsuccessful claim, my chances of getting one are rapidly shrinking.

The airdrops being independent events, I will always have between the 31.43% and the 16.29% chance of getting a specific airdrop card depending on how many packs are required to get one guaranteed. The first summoner should require 550 packs, while the last one 675. Keep in mind that those requirements are subject to change if the developers find them to be necessary.

Nevertheless, globally speaking, if I end up with not a single card after those 11 airdrops, knowing that this scenario was almost less than 6% likely to happen, I think I could objectively consider myself as an “unlucky” one. I am far from being a math genius, so I might have made a mistake. Still, I believe this is how it works, and if not, well, that’s my way of cheering myself up anyway. :)

With a bit of chance, I might even get a powerful Llama type of summoner. Lately, I have been encountering so many "Llama + Kron" combo that it almost gives me nightmares. Any tips for beating this annoying duo would be highly appreciated!

Thomas

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