Disrupting the Cow

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Recently, it came to light that SPS is going to need to be staked to play, replacing collection power. It will also be used for earnings, meaning that if an account doesn't have enough SPS, they are going to earn less than an account that reaches the threshold. From my understanding, these have always been on the cards in terms of SPS utility, but there has been quite a lot of pushback against this.

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For transparency, I do have enough SPS to get into where I aim for, which is Champion 1, but I am collecting more because I am also hoping that SPS will have additional utility that brings it value in the future.

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However, the pushback is likely to come from the bot accounts, where they have effectively been able to earn and sell what they get, without having to worry about the actual value of what they are selling, because they aren't going to hold much of it anyway. Also, those who run multiple accounts are going to struggle a bit too, because while it will be possible to delegate the SPS around, meaning it will be rentable, there should also be some kind of cooldown period between delegation, so they can't move the delegation from one account to another quickly enough to take full advantage.

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I see these as good moves, because while everyone wants to make money, it is a a game, not a cashcow to be milked until it dies. Too many of the crypto experiences forget to put experience first, instead focusing on the earnings alone and then the participants, automate the processes so they don't have to do anything at all. I am not a fan of bots playing games and this is even more true when there are financial rewards on offer, because it ruins the experience for the people who actually like playing. Because of this, I am probably not a very objective voice on the matter.

I feel that there are a lot of people who got in early enough to take a massive advantage, which is fine, but those same people are looking to clos the door behind them, so few others can benefit. This is natural, because they want to "protect" their investment, even if in the longrun, they are going to erode the value of what they have.

We have seen this happen on Steem through various mechanisms that destroyed the experience, as people maximized their earnings over improving the experience of participation. What started to improve it, was through a change in the code that allowed for the community to have more power over what earned and what didn't. However, in Splinterlands, this isn't possible from the community, which means maximization practices can go on unabated, until the code is changed, which comes from the Splinterlands team.

There is always going to be pushback when conditions change, because one set of conditions favors some of the community over others and they don't want to lose their current privilege. But, innovation and progress still needs to happen, other staleness and retraction will take place. Yes, change doesn't always move in the positive and there can be initial retraction, which we have seen in the past where for example, large bot operators have sold off their card holdings, dropping the prices.

Personlly, I would rather see this kind of thing happen though, instead of new card releases that will drop the price, because while new card releases raise funds for the team, they don't necessarily improve the game play experience and if anything, make it more difficult. I'd rather a robust economy that is sustainable and attractive to investors and players, than some nice new art work and abilities that I would have to pay many more thousands to get hold of, before the majority of them don't sell through, and are flooding the markets, dropping the prices of everything anyway.

No matter how good the car looks, if the engine doesn't run, it is useless.

The Splinterlands economy and tokenomics is complex, because there are so many interrelated pieces to it and, there has been a very large change in the distribution values. The first cards for example came with a massive collection value, which was then used to seed the distribution of a lot of the SPS later too, meaning that the earliest in were able to take a huge lead in the stakes with a lot of value in what they were getting, allowing them to dump their holdings to those coming in behind and then drop the price even further, because for a lot of the first players, they are always in profit, because they haven't necessarily put that much in themselves.

Changing these mechanisms of course is frustrating for them, because it means that they don't have as much access to the cashcow, and it slows down their ability to widen the gap between themselves and new players. But, unless there is incentive for new players to come in and earn, a little too, new players won't. Buying the latest sets for example, which have a increasing pack cost and a decreasing ROI value, is not attractive. And when the gameplay is dominated by bots, it is even worse, because it is not fun to play against automated accounts - especially when those automated accounts should be the ones players look up to.

Those early accounts should be advocates of Splinterlands for new players, not just because they can reap the benefits of early investment until it kills it for everyone else. But, they aren't. Very few of the early players are even active on Hive and being part of the public community discussions, they aren't leaders, they aren't players, they are just well, farmers now. It is a pity, because they had a chance to be part of building a truly great gaming community that is increasingly able to satisfy the needs of players, and investors on a community blockchain that can support more experiences.

But, while this "is crypto" the fact is that people are people and will act in their own short-term interests, even if it costs the value of the long-term community, including themselves. Corporations and bankers do the same - they don't care about experience, they care about maximization of their profits.

The original goal was meant to be that SPS was going to be some kind of valuable asset that would have multiple points of utility, yet it hasn't been that so far. However, making SPS valuable and attractive to hold is a way for investors and players to become owners of the community itself, in a similar way that HIVE does for the Hive blockchain. There should be incentive to stake and that incentive should affect all parts of the game economy, including gameplay.

It is a painful reality that change is going to interrupt and disrupt current maximization for some players in some context, but that doesn't mean that those same participants aren't going to keep benefiting in other ways, or as the ecosystem expands further. But, human nature is in a rush and especially these days, people have a very high expectation on how how much and how fast their ROI should be.

No one wants their cow to die, but if milking it is bleeding it out for everyone else, it is inevitable.

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]



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41 comments
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Perhaps this is good for some people. For me this seems like a terrible news.

I only have 9,039.905 SPS so I will not be able to play in gold? that sucks because playing in gold is way more fun than playing in silver.

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If I understood it correctly you will be able to play any league your rating is but... the reward will be tied to your staked SPS.

For me, it looks like there will be a big reward drop for the majority of the users.

I wrote an article about that: https://peakd.com/hive-13323/@monstercardstore/replace-collection-power-with-staked-sps-does-your-reward-drop

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thank you for your explanation.

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So what's happening with this change is that you can play in any league you want as long as you can hit that rating. You can even play in Champs with a Bronze deck if you have the rating, you just won't get the full rewards with 9,000 SPS.

So if you enjoy playing in Gold because it's more fun, definitely do it. And yes, with 9,000 SPS, you won't get the full Rshares when you win, but SPS might be a different matter. Consider this scenario whereby you have 9,000 SPS, but majority of the players in Gold only have 1,000, your SPS battle reward should be higher as the the 1,000 SPS players will get less from the Gold League SPS pool, which means the pool won't diminish as fast. This would mean you with your 9,000 SPS will be able to get more SPS from a less diminished pool. This part is a little tricky and we won't really know how it will actually pan out till it goes live.

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It is going to be interesting to see how it pans out, but I would like to see a projection based on last season, taking for example, the top 100 players from each league and their respective stakes in SPS. How many take 100%, how many don't have enough. What would be the effect for those who have enough.

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Using a sample of 1, I can certainly say there is a very high % of players in any given league that fall short of the min. requirement, but I am ok with that. The SPS number should be aspirational and people should aim to reach it. If the requirement is too low, the SPS won will just be dumped back onto the market.

Potentially what can be done for new players is that the DAO delegates X amount of SPS to new players for the first month, free of charge as it just sits there anyway. This would force the DAO to stake the SPS (DAO gets SPS airdrop) and new players won't worry about SPS for the moment. And since SPS takes a month to unstake, hopefully they will enjoy it after that 1 month and stick around.

On the flip side, all the OGs will complain that they get 0.001% less SPS from SPS airdrops.....can't please everyone.

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As mentioned below, you will still be able to play, but will take a haircut on the value of SPS rewards. Still, it will likely work out better than playing in the lower leagues.

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Hmm. That is interesting. This is the first I am hearing of it and I am not sure I am fully on board with that. I have heard several people claim that it is several big accounts that got in early that is basically propping Splinterlands up. This feels like it could facilitate that even more. I thought I had a pretty decent stake having been in since the beginning, but I would barely be able to scratch Diamond 2.

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For me to have what I have, I have been buying (at much higher prices) SPS over the last while and been staking nearly all of what I receive. Some obviously don't do that though.

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Probably a good time to be doing it now given the price. I can't really see it going much lower....

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Yeah - hopefully there is a steady increase if demand grows.

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This is news to me. Maybe I should start to pay attention.

But it does seem that play-to-earn isn’t a particularly sustainable model. We’ll have to see if pay-to-win is.

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It is similar on Hive. If people are only earning and selling, with no one staking, what happens? There has to be incentive to invest into the ecosystem and it has to be hire than it is to extract from the ecosystem.

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(Edited)

I think this is going to kill the game. Cards are not cheap already and adding this new requirement is shutting the door on new players.

Watch the higher tier card prices collapse over time. Because less and less people are willing to advance in tiers and get higher level cards.

People already there have all the cards already, when thry want to shuffle and cash out there won’t enough players to take over.

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Cards are likely to get cheaper because of it, so it is possible that over time, as those cash out, there actually might be people willing to get in.

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Isn’t this bad? Whales may be getting “more” SPS but overall value of the entire collection continues to drop.

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Not necessarily. The high value of those cards that they got largely for free or close to is unsustainable, isn't it?

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Cards are already soulbound. SPS rewards are very little for Gold League and under.

Then the very steep requirement for Diamond and up where people are already investing in maxed out cards which is very expensive.

This development cuts off new demand for maxed out cards.

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Yes, it might initially, driving their value down. The lower the cost, the higher the demand, right? Currently, the value of cards is in freefall because of the constant release of new sets, without demand to buy, at prices that would have been high during a bull market, whilst in a bear.

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Things get hectic when assets that hold 'Real Value' are involved. If this were any other card game not on the blockchain this would be a non-event or it might not even be a possibility. It is interesting to see how both the community and the developers are working together to handle these bad participants. Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this. It is still the early days of Blockchain/Web3 gaming and the steps that these popular dApps are making against bots, abusers, and cheats of the system could be the new standard for future games!

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and the steps that these popular dApps are making against bots, abusers, and cheats of the system could be the new standard for future games!

It isn't necessarily cheating or what not - it is just the way people tend to operate. If the code allows it and there is incentive to do so, people will act in a way that makes them the most.

But yes - if this was "just a game" it wouldn't be treated the same way. We are exploring a completely different monetization mechanism that hasn't existed like this before in gaming, or the internet as a whole.

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Hmm I was half expecting SPS to rocket as people mostly likely need to top up their stakes... But it isn't happening.. Then I thought did it backfire? And people actually give up. Hmm time will tell.

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People are thinking I guess. Still 3 months or so til the change.

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Probably, I still think there will be a bit of FOMO at least.

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I imagine there will be some FOMO closer - while many will be quietly stacking up until then.

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Agree to a point. Splinterlands was never friendly to new players.

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At some point, the expectation has to be that new players are needed. What is largely happening up until now is that early players are using their benefits to increase their stake - not necessarily bring in new funds.

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yeah, i do that too. reinvesting. is it time to get some profits out?

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Not sure when is the time, but I am down :)

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(Edited)

I think the changes are pretty horse shit. I sold maybe 5k SPS over the beginning to take profits at the time but have kept stacking since, only to take out 10k to buy Riftwatchers. I’m sitting at 35k SPS right now and have been staking every single little bit I can. I used to exclusively play in Diamond 2 or 1 but now there’s no way in fucking hell I could make it to those leagues. 177k SPS to play diamond 1? What the fuck. I’ve been playing since 2018 and invested what I can in the game but I can’t go spending all kinds of money to buy up SPS to get into these other leagues. I would only be at 50k if I never used anything and that’s pretty pathetic, considering how much I’ve played and invested without buying SPS.

The numbers seem quite ludicrous and I would love to know how they came up with such astronomical numbers for the leagues. It sounds like skewed averages were used instead of more appropriate median values. Not a fan of the numbers but do think a form of it would be helpful.

Also, what happens to collection power that many were scrambling to get when those requirements were introduced? Kind of makes gold foil cards relatively useless IMO. Can’t use them for a collection power boost.

I’m willing to be open minded but the numbers here are absurd.

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Riftwatchers is a bit of a failure.

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Too many sets coming out too fast.

You will still be able to play in whatever league, but rewards will get a haircut

Also, what happens to collection power that many were scrambling to get when those requirements were introduced?

Yep. I have been buying cards for land, only to find out it was all a load of crap :D

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Wow it means you're also play splinter land, i just made an account there about 10 day's ago but still i didn't try to play a game

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Splinterland economics is not working. The game will die. The problem is humans. The founders made a big money selling cards though. Good for them.
But we have a much bigger problem. I'm afraid that the same will happen to Hive and Leofinance.

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Its already dying, I give it a year tops. New players are not going to spend 1000's to potentially earn a couple of cents a day.

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I'm afraid that the same will happen to Hive and Leofinance.

Hive should be okay for a bit at least. Leo, I am not sure. they seem to have abandoned some of their projects that people invested a lot into.

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Glad to see they are changing up. The cheaper card prices will attract the new player and this is the main barrier for entry. It is better than CP also as there are no league barriers anymore. The only thing that will stop you from progressing is lack of leveled up cards. You can still progress but your SPS ratio will just be less if you do not have the staking amounts

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"I feel that there are a lot of people who got in early enough to take a massive advantage, which is fine, but those same people are looking to close the door behind them, so few others can benefit."

I couldn't have said it better. With each major change in the game, early players have done their best to increase the gap and be on top. The SL team has also benefited them the most as a way to "protect loyalty." Depending on their SPS holdings, this change might affect them (if they are just farmers now), or they could actually have enough to support their account(s).

Meanwhile, it is becoming increasingly difficult to enter the game or stay in it. Progression has been slowed down tremendously by all measures trying to "avoid exploits." For example, I've been in the Gold league for years, and with each measure, I am even being pushed back to Silver a little more; just when I thought my CP was enough to be close to Diamond. Now, SPS could increase in value, but, would the players see it worth it? Could they feel encouraged to invest more now in another change in the game to keep playing while knowing the ROI of such action can take 2 years or more to happen? and that is if the next bull run favors the game again.

Thank you for your analysis, it made my thoughts regarding the game feel less lonely.

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While there is typically uproar against change. This is great news for the game and the SPS token as long as people keep their faith in the change. It makes perfect sense for requiring SPS stake to earn max SPS, so this ensures that people earning have SPS skin in the game. Want more rewards? Hold more tokens! Perfectly reasonable solution to add utility to SPS token.

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