Splinterlands will push Hive to $1.
I think that everybody in the Hive eco-system has seen the explosion in users and activity for @splinterlands.
This is having a huge effect on new sign-ups, expanding the Hive brand and increasing activity across the whole network. Already I have seen a large amount of these new users jumping into discord and even posting on splintertalk.io.
This is creating a large network effect as the more people that start doing these things, the more promotion that they are creating for Hive and it's whole eco-system.
That is not even the best part. The best part is that these new users and accounts are bringing external funds into the eco-system which os what we have been crying out for since splitting the chain. A lot of the users here from that time have already put skin in the game and weren't bringing fresh capital to the table. The were happy to keep growing organically through time and effort rather than putting dollars into hive.
This is only natural as most of us have created a strong position on the chain over the past few years and don't have the same motivation as we can grow without putting more funds in.
With the recent growth in @splinterlands this has all changed. Us existing players and Hive users now have a method of earning funds through the game. Funds from either selling or renting assets.
These are all payed out in DEC which is a hive-engine token. This means that the value which these new players are brining into the game from external sources is all flowing into hive-engine and providing buying pressure on hive. This isn't even brining resource credits into play which splinterlands will need to keep buying as the keep growing their userbase.
My deck has gone over 12x in value in the past month alone. I am not selling any of these assets but have rented out all spare cards.
This is now bringing me in daily income of about 5000DEC or $35.
Where is that going???
Straight into hive and powered up to my account. That is a daily buy order on hive from a person that would not be buying any more from the markets. Mine is far from the biggest deck but that is $235 a week or about 500 HIVE is all these prices hold up. From one user.
Now we might have 1000 users doing the same thing and we are looking at !/4 million in buy pressure weekly from one small group on just one app. Over time this will have an effect on the overall price and with the success of splinterlands it will give people a lot more confidence in the future of Hive itself.
I am seeing a lot of noise from other games running on BSC and Ethereum where large numbers of users are running into huge transactions fees and scaling issues already. How long before other apps decide that Hive is a viable alternative for running apps with it's higher price, free transactions and large userbase?
How long before some of these new users realize the power of a hive account and explore deeper into the eco-system?
I am very bullish on Hive right now and want to start powering up as much as possible. We won't see these low prices last forever and have been holding steady over 40c for a long time now. Soon that level will be over 50c and eventually a dollar.
It's almost inevitable at this stage.
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Thinking excactly the same as you...I have also been powering up the last few weeks...The demand for HIVE is getting bigger and bigger every day, HIVE price has to push higher...
This is still only the early stages as well. Give it another couple of years development and see where we will be. Luckily things are on the way up so i am very confident going forward and powering up as much as possible.
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Although I did not play this game but I see that its fans and players increasing day by day
and with good marketing campaign it could move hive to another place
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Now imagine if we have a second or third game only half as successful as Splinterlands on the Hive blockchain!
Exode is looking promising and rising star is moving along nicely. Hashkings and cryptobrewmaster could still get somewhere plus a few more in development.
The main difference right now is all of the marketing, partnerships and promotion that aggroed has put into splinterlands. He didn't just build a game, he marketed it and built a community around the game.
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I'd love to have the same optimism but I think there are some misconceptions that should probably be sorted out. To my understanding SPT is the only Hive token which is largely unsupported by the devs. Dark energy Crystals predate Hive but have a bridge to HE and SPS is a Binance based token. Aggroed even goes out of his way to talk about how Splinterlands is blockchain agnostic, wanting to be a connection point to multiple platforms/chains.
So I don't think this positive cycle exists where pressure in pressure creates more pressure in Hive. A lot of people who post splinterlands content just create spam to milk rewards from Hive and bring them over to feed their splinterlands collection which is expensive to feed due to the lack of liquidity with most of the packs being sold out. Or they're constantly putting their referrals links in their post to try to get rewards that way. You have to consider the quality of users being onboarded not just the quantity of accounts being fed into the ecosystem anytime someone buys or is gifted a spellbook. And that's before you account for the increasing number of bots plaguing the game.
I don't mean to run down splinterlands or anything. I'm glad they're gaining traction and it would be awesome for that to be a springboard for Hive but splinterlands spreads out more and more away from Hive as time goes on. I just think people should talk realistically about these things because everytime I hear people talk about Hive, it's never from a balanced perspective. The person either tunnel visions on all the good things about splinterlands or all the bad things about it. I've never seen a single person honestly weigh the pros and cons against each other. I would like to see an improvement in the way the culture and analysis works because I've seen an uptick in accounts and overall noise from splinterlands but I haven't seen any high level analysis like I've enjoyed in other card games like MTG. I was hoping that their success would leverage more high level players over because even when I'm not into MTG for whatever reason, I do like to tune into the analytics and content like that can often be made digestible to people outside the game if the theory gets interesting enough.
I'd like to be cautiously optimistic in the same vein as you and would love to see more people double dipping on splinterlands and hive if they want to contribute to the blockchain in a meaningful way. Maybe there will be more ways to bridge the gap between us because I have observed a build up of animosity between some splinterlands users and normal hive users combating the spam. It would be nice to see this worked out without more infighting on Hive. There are other more pressing matters we could be focusing our energy on.
Thanks for the detailed reply and i appreciate your opinion on the matter. I don't have tunnel vision on the subject but I am very optimistic on how it will affect hive for the better.
SPS is based on BSC but links directly to hive-engine as well. Youi can trade it across multiple chains which is the future of crypto. SPT is solely based on hive and earns you SPS for staking it to your hive account so the whole eco-system links together on hive and adds more value. I know that there will be spam but that's the same across all media sites and crypto. More users will bring more users. The network effect of success is huge as it draws more people into the system.
Quality would be the ideal but it's impossible to bring 100% quality users into any system. you will always have a portion that are quality, some that are casual and some that are dicks. It will always happen.
The important part of this is resource credits. The more people that are using hive, the more resource credits that are needed for those accounts. Whether that is players powering up hive to perform more market transactions or splinterlands powering up to support their expanding userbase. There will be more hive taken off the market and powered up. That is where my optimism comes from.
This would be great to see over time when people start creating real content to be shared with others. Guides, walkthroughs strategies. It will happen eventually but for now all of the players jumping in are noobs and still trying to find their feet.
We have had enough animosity on hive over the years and it always hurts the system. There is enough to be worried about in life other than what others are doing in their own tribe. I think that hive rewards will move off level one at some stage and people will be more focused on community tokens as most of the aggro comes from rewards.
We will see.
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I think there are some issues due to the huge influx of users but I think people are at least happy that they don't have to pay for more transaction bandwidth. At least when Alien Worlds exploded, I really didn't like how WAX couldn't scale.
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Nobody expected things to get so big so fast. It was hard to catch up with all of the new players and scale while it was happening.
Luckily the team managed it without too much hassle and things seem to be back on track. Free transactions make all of the difference to the game and the fact that hive can handle the traffic.
It is a good test run for when we have more apps and the chain needs to handle 10x what it does now.
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I believe Hive shold be in range 5-10 dollar based on it's utility, $1 is also undervalued (curated by r1s2g3)
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It will get up to the $5 range at some stage as we add more to the eco-system.
For now it would be great to hit $1 and stay for a while. Build a solid base.
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Great analysis as always man, nice residual income stream you have going there via Splinterlands, fair play to you 👍
It's getting there. Three years of building a deck and sticking with the project. This is a long game and i'm hoping it pays off going forward.
Absolutely man, and you've been calling it like that for a long time too. Lots of organic growth and interesting analysis and a great example of hard work and knowledge leading to gains. Keep it up 👍