Speculating on Splinterlands - Screw Dr. Blight, Just Give Me the Money!
Practice makes perfect, so they say. In my case right now, it is precisely the daily practice of claiming my SPS airdrop, staking it right away, and checking the market on the latest price of the VOUCHER and CHAOS tokens, that is, the Chaos Legion packs and the corresponding vouchers to get them in the ongoing pre-sale in the #Splinterlands game.
I Finally Know What I'm Doing!
As I was writing my last post on this admittedly multi-sided topic of the Chaos Legion pre-sale, you could probably see that I was not exactly sure what would turn out to be the best practice for me. Adding to the grand confusion, posts like this one by @kennyskitchen didn't help the matter, making it seem like I was getting ripped off. And no, I'm not trying to rip on Kenny, or claim he's wrong, after all, what he says has a sound foundation. However, it is also info that is best applied to high-rollers (like himself, and like we all would love to be) who are not only looking forward to playing with their new Chaos Legion decks, but to rising through the leagues to defend their championship...
And certainly, for those purposes you will more than likely NEED a Dr. Blight, probably leveled up all the way. So your best chances would be buying as many Chaos Legion packs from the game store as possible. Otherwise, you may get your packs, possibly cheaper, but you'll miss out on the great perks. Makes perfect sense to me, while realizing that all this is not FOR me. I am a much smaller fish who does not even expect to buy 50 packs in the pre-sale. So why would I even bother with Dr. Blight?
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Taking Advantage of the Market Prices
Indeed, why would I? This rhetorical question becomes even more obvious, if you look at the prices of the CHAOS and VOUCHER tokens. I used LeoDex for this, but I'm sure other markets will tell you a similar story: Once I get a full voucher airdropped, I send it to the Hiveengine, and sell it. Then I buy a Chaos Legion pack, and usually end up with more Swap.Hive than I started with. In my case it only took two turns (that is four days, as I get a voucher every other day) to save up enough money for an additional pack. Whoo-hoo! Not sure how long this is going to last, but Iḿ quite psyched! This way I just may end up with 50 packs by the end of the pre-sale, though the magic number of 50 really doesn't matter one way or another, as they are not bought from the game-store, which means, it won't qualify me for a Dr. Blight. But who cares?
Why the Perks Don't Matter
In my previous posts I've been talking a lot about spending SPS, maybe even unstaking it. Well, as it turns out, by selling my vouchers and buying the Chaos Legion packs on the market for its price, I am actually earning about the same amount of money I would otherwise be spending on the packs. This means, I can keep staking all my daily SPS airdrop, and still have more at the end of the day than if I had bought the packs at the game-store. Sure, the value of SPS is dropping, but that was pretty much expected. This also means, the 10% discount for buying your packs with SPS becomes somewhat negligible.
Also, some related news is that the DEC token is not that overvalued any more. This means, the impermanent loss I have been seeing in the liquidity pool is actually turning out to be really IM-permanent. In other words, as my initially 40,000 DEC has gotten reduced to 25,000, now it's back above 30,000. I'm certain the SPS price is also just going through these waves. As for the medium-term, I'm pretty sure SPS will prove to be more valuable than the vouchers, so I can easily give up on Dr. Blight, and leave him up for those folks who actually want to fight battles with him. Though to be honest, I think I may even buy myself a Dr. Blight... once he has become established, with a reasonable and stable price.
You have to do what is right for you - I'm a bit underwhelmed by the perks, certainly not buying Voucher. I've been selling SPS recently, going to buy it back later, anticipating it dipping.
That's right, I've noticed it before: the game seems to favor the fat cats with massive holdings (what else is new?). So I'm really happy to have discovered what is best for myself. And that's what's whelming me these days! As for the SPS... there is a dip all right, so I guess you're not the only one selling these days. 😉 But it's all good. The year-long airdrop has just started, and I expect many exciting things to happen.
Anticipating it dipping further than 0.50?
All love brother!
I see where that's looking to be a good deal, You're selling off your vouchers to 2x the number of packs you can get during this part of the pre-sale (assuming you're doing this all currently)
Here's what I would do if that was my goal and I was in your position: sell the vouchers now (set sells at the high end of the swings) and use it all to buy SPS whenever it's on sale (to your definition, for me that's <$0.75) and stake it. Then buy regular sale packs from the store for $3.60 (or less on hive engine)
This would get you 3x (or more) the number of packs you're getting now, that you can't open until then anyway. By waiting and getting them in-store later, you get in on the other 14 airdrop cards (just not Blight.) Any packs purchased on the secondary market carry NO airdrop value, pre-sale or regular sale.
Just throwing out an idea, bouncing things around, trying to figure out the best plays for everybody, through open-source problem-solving :-)
Ooooh, nice! Now you got me thinking. So instead of selling vouchers to buy packs, sell vouchers to by SPS, stake them, get more out of the airdrop, and then buy packs. Interesting... Thanx for the tip, now I just gotta mull it over.
Or some other variation.
Just remember that all 15 million packs will be $4 each in the store (and these are the most voucher-dependent lot), and all but the last million have at least one airdrop chance in them if you buy them from the store - and 0 if bought on the secondary market.
I don't know what the very best answer is for any of us haha, I'm still playing with different ways of handling it.
Currently buying packs with my airdropped vouchers, and selling those packs at 3x face value, then buying SPS with that and staking it. I get $8-9 per voucher dropped this way, will hit the 300 packs I need for a Dr. Blight at lvl 3, and those packs will count for all the future airdrops as well (more than a dozen legendaries and epics)
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I don't play Splinterlands, but I do try to stay up to date with the happenings so my daughter doesn't miss anything. When the whole SPS thing happened, that was quite a surprise. Perhaps like you a bit, her holdings in the game have been too small to get involved with land tracts and other things, but I obviously need to dive into this Chaos thing a little more.
It sure is surprising! I never thought a "silly crypto game" would get this successful. What it has taught me most of all, that it's the early adoption that really pays off. So now with Chaos Legion, that seems to be exactly the case. But other than me, it looks like many other people have realized this too (which counts for its success). Normally I'd call this a hype, but the game itself has been running strong for years now, and there's no sign that this would change.