Are vouchers an opportunity to get FREE Chaos Legion packs for new players?!
Vouchers have dipped under $1.85 per unit at their lowest this last week, far from their highs a while ago. In the last few days however, the token has gone back up a bit as the General Sale is quickly approaching. For a fairly new player like me, I feel that this could be an opportunity to get packs at a discounted price.
Let me explain:
During the General Sale, which starts in January the 17th, bonus packs will require vouchers to be redeemed. A single Chaos Legion pack will cost $4, but redeeming a few bonus packs with vouchers at half this price feels like a “bargain”.
Long story short:
At first, I was only willing to buy just a few packs, 25 actually. But shortly after that, I unintentionally convinced my wife that buying those packs could be a “fair” investment, especially when looking at the current value of older packs. Untamed, for example, is selling at 21.5 times more than its original price! With that in mind, she asked me to help her buy 25 packs as well.
However, by digging a bit more through the Splinterlands website, I discovered that in order to be eligible to bonus packs, we would actually need a purchase of at least 100 packs… Having already doubled my original budget, I felt like doubling once more wasn’t that big of a deal after all...
Anyway, here is the math:
Let’s say you bought 10 vouchers at $1.85.
Then after the General Sale, you sold 5 bonus packs at a price of $3.75 on the secondary market.
You would end with a $0.25 net profit and more importantly, 5 FREE packs!
Cost: 10 * 1.85 = 18.50
Profit: 5 * 3.75 = 18.75
Where is the catch?
All right Thomas, but “what do we do with the other 100 packs coming with the huge price tag of $400”, you’ll ask me.
This is how I would proceed:
The following is by no means intended as financial advice.
1) Buying 10 vouchers through hive-engine
2) Selling between 5 to 8 bonus packs in the secondary market to recover the cost of the vouchers
3) Opening the other 2 to 5 “free” bonus packs for fun
4) Hodling the 100 packs normally purchased for the SPS airdrop
5) Getting about $85 in the form of SPS (1 SPS = $0.15 at the time of writing)
6) Buying 17 packs of Riftwatchers with those SPS
7) Selling the Chaos Legion packs once they are out of stock
An alternative option would be to sell all your bonus packs at a profit and reinvest it into buying individual cards as they will most probably flood the market once the General Sale begins.
Caveat:
Now that I have laid down my plan of action, let me warn you of one more thing.
When comparing the editions of Chaos Legion to Untamed, it is important to know that there will be 10 times more packs released in the market with this latest edition. Then, if we take the current price of an Untamed pack ($43) and simply divide it by 10, we get a $4.3 valuation for a future “out of stock” Chaos Legion pack. This is far from the +2150% of the previous edition, even though this would still be a profit.
More potential upside than downside:
Of course, I purposefully didn’t take into account a handful of parameters that I don't I have any control over: the next 11 Airdropped Cards (you will have a small chance to get them as long as you buy your packs in the first 24h of the General Sale), the potential increase of the number of players, another crypto bull run, the actual demand for Chaos Legion packs etc… just to name a few.
Having been playing for over two months now, I feel like the team behind the game has a clear and inspiring vision. They keep delivering value to players month after month. Sure, the game has been hard at time for a new player like me but I believe enough in this project to invest carefully into its future. I wouldn’t buy more packs than I could afford, and you shouldn’t as well.
I hope that this post has been insightful in some ways and will help you build your own plan of action.
Thank you for reading.
Thomas